Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 The GFS is a nice storm. Not close to the Euro. But its a good storm for all of us. Nothing is really close to what the Euro gave us last night. Maybe use that as an upper bound? Still, a solid 6-10" or 6-12" area-wide seems reasonable at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowpocalypse Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 The GFS is a nice storm. Not close to the Euro. But its a good storm for all of us. All of us? As in DC? Doesn't look to good at all for my area. Went from to far south to now being to far north. Can't win. Congratz bwi-dc south people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I'm hugging the Euro and 50:1 ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 This will still be a nowcasting storm... it will be all where the front sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 GFS still has the latest changeover of any model even though it goes below freezing earlier....I think a wildcard is how much frozen falls between midnight and 4am, and when does it change to snow..Euro has been on board with definitely getting some accumulating snow between 1am and 4am....if we have to wait until 5, then obviously we will get less snow....I am having trouble getting on board with any insane amounts as it looks like a 12 hour snow event tops....which is usually a good signal for 8" in a heavy snow event... Sounds very reasonable to me. I think CWG 5-9 forecast is the way to go for DC now. If the EURO holds again at 12z we might have to take the 8-12 idea seriously though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Hopefully we don't see a scenario where the cold press is less and it still goes south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 GFS still has the latest changeover of any model even though it goes below freezing earlier....I think a wildcard is how much frozen falls between midnight and 4am, and when does it change to snow..Euro has been on board with definitely getting some accumulating snow between 1am and 4am....if we have to wait until 5, then obviously we will get less snow....I am having trouble getting on board with any insane amounts as it looks like a 12 hour snow event tops....which is usually a good signal for 8" in a heavy snow event... Hard to tell for sure but it looks like the gfs switches to snow at 3am? Snow line is in central md at 1am and prob moves quick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I'm hugging the Euro and 50:1 ratios. With the 850's at -92 you may be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Hopefully we don't see a scenario where the cold press is less and it still goes south.Sounds like something we'd pull off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 where it exits the coast will obviously determine what we ultimately end up with, but storm looks energetic on satellite: http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecir.html from my experience in this area, west to east based systems that tap the gulf are the best setups we can ask for. everyone likes to talk about noreasters, but those often lead to snow to mix/rain situations. this is vice versa...i think i like that more even if it means less snow. this could be a nice bookend to the winter if it materializes as expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 All of us? As in DC? Doesn't look to good at all for my area. Went from to far south to now being to far north. Can't win. Congratz bwi-dc south people. To me it still looks ok for the northeast Maryland/N Delaware area including Elkton-Newark. I'd be getting nervous if I was in Philly though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 GFS @ 9z is a solid snow sounding for DCA area: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?sounding.lat=39.0356&sounding.lon=-77.0045&sndclick=y&prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=03&model_dd=02&model_init_hh=12&fhour=21¶meter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=y&output=image&view=large&archive=false 6z was not a snow sounding. Not sure when the changeover from sleet will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 All of us? As in DC? Doesn't look to good at all for my area. Went from to far south to now being to far north. Can't win. Congratz bwi-dc south people. Yeah, 6 inches of snow sucks. Stop posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 All of us? As in DC? Doesn't look to good at all for my area. Went from to far south to now being to far north. Can't win. Congratz bwi-dc south people. What are you talking about? The 12Z GFS actually looks pretty similar in terms of QPF and temperature compared to its 06Z run, in fact looks like the precip field has expanded somewhat, ever so slightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I'm hugging the Euro and 50:1 ratios. Ratios have been as high as 60:1 before on planet earth. It wouldn't be possible around here though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Hopefully we don't see a scenario where the cold press is less and it still goes south. I think thats a pretty low probability. The cold push is impressive on the models. People better get where they need to go tonight, because from dawn through early evening Monday it wont be pretty on the roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Ok. NAM was south. GFS gives a more northerly track and is warmer. QPF differences marginal from other global guidance? What gives in the setup? Is the answer simply warmer and a bit north? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 GFS @ 9z is a solid snow sounding for DCA area: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?sounding.lat=39.0356&sounding.lon=-77.0045&sndclick=y&prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=03&model_dd=02&model_init_hh=12&fhour=21¶meter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=y&output=image&view=large&archive=false 6z was not a snow sounding. Not sure when the changeover from sleet will be. I'd guess we have to be sleet around 06Z, with the surface below freezing and 850's just above (but crashing rapidly it appears at that point). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Yeah, 6 inches of snow sucks. Stop posting. This storm combined with cold is pretty darn impressive down there for this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 This storm combined with cold is pretty darn impressive down there for this time of year. Absolutely. These daytime temps during a snowstorm would be impressive even in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 FWIW- euro ens members are basically unanimous for a big hit. Precip mean panels are perfect. Not sure how useful the data is but the look is solid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 This storm combined with cold is pretty darn impressive down there for this time of year. Exactly. If any of these modeled low temps are correct for Monday night and Tuesday night, some areas are not only going to break record lows but could well shatter them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I'm hugging the Euro and 50:1 ratios. I just sent in a quote. I'm happy with our amounts. I did note that most of the SREF members were quicker with the changeover than the GFS for what that is worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 DCA proper should be snow right at 4am... everything is below except for the 800 level which is +0.5... I will assume snow is likely if the rates are there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 FWIW- euro ens members are basically unanimous for a big hit. Precip mean panels are perfect. Not sure how useful the data is but the look is solid Toss the ensembles at this short lead and go with he NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 FWIW- euro ens members are basically unanimous for a big hit. Precip mean panels are perfect. Not sure how useful the data is but the look is solid I know some have said global ensembles are less useful in this range (though not totally useless)...but it's good that they're supportive of the ops Euro showing a big hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 According to these CMC has flip to snow about 3-4AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 In other news, severe thundersleet in Missouri. Radar indicated quarter-sized hail mixing in with the sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 12z UKIE has 850s at -6 or so at 12z MON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 CMC solid hit, especially for DC but has Baltimore fringed by 11-noon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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