Heisy Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 It goes out to 54 during 6/18z. I just don't know where to find it Favorite this...its not yet... http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=18&mod=gemreg&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=18&mod2=gemreg&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=048&fixhh=1&hh=000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Been working all day in North Carolina, how's it look for the Fredericksburg Spotsylvania, VA area? Looks like it will snow, but that won't help change Fred and Spotsy from being hell holes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 RGEM @ 48 hours...Better overall than NAM, If storm goes S like the NAM I will go to Cape Map so I'm rooting either way.... Looks like it is about to CRUSH you guys in the next frame... rgem.gif nope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 1, 2014 Author Share Posted March 1, 2014 Not cool. I'm not one of these wringing my hands over whether it goes south or not. I was just making an observation that the boundary seems to be the focus for the heavier precip. Guess I was being a "taker" with my post. Jeez Come on man, you know I wasn't jabbing you. Geez. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 As the models raise the stakes everyone's expectations go with it. I'm not worried about the south thing at all. It's almost locked to be a decent storm for all of us. Let the chips fall at this point Eta: just a few short days ago we were wondering if we would get anything good at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I am not liking the southward trend... we are going to be the NY forum here soon. thanks for adding nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Not worried yet about any south trend. Now, if the rest of model suite follows tonight then maybe something consider. But as Matt has mentioned north shift seems probable. As most of us know storms tend to trend N/NW. Also, models have increased QPF last 24 hrs. Do you think that trend is over? Being that most storms have over performed this year. Matt, Bob ? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Come on man, you know I wasn't jabbing you. Geez. So you're a "giver" ( of jabs ). LOL, all good. I think I'm just on edge over this UVA game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Not worried yet about any south trend. Now, if the rest of model suite follows tonight then maybe something consider. But as Matt has mentioned north shift seems probable. As most of us know storms tend to trend N/NW. Also, models have increased QPF last 24 hrs. Do you think that trend is over? Being that most storms have over performed this year. Matt, Bob ? Thanks. we've covered it like 20 times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 As the models raise the stakes everyone's expectations go with it. I'm not worried about the south thing at all. It's almost locked to be a decent storm for all of us. Let the chips fall at this point Eta: just a few short days ago we were wondering if we would get anything good at all Only if you were hooked on the Euro. The GFS had a good winter storm. Mostly ice, but still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 They look about the same as last night right? On phone so I don't feel like comparing. Are they even that useful at this point? Useful meaning better than ops and other sr stuff. I would think not. The lower resolution and at this time frame, not even looking at ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I think the point about the press of the cold air is a valid one and gives a last minute northwest shift less plausibility. The models often have a hard time seeing the strength and depth of these Arctic air masses this year. Combine that with the fact that the cold air is moving in at the beginning of the storm instead of being already established and I think it lowers the confidence a bit in what exactly will happen. Regardless, many of you in the MA are going to get clocked when a couple of days ago you were hoping to get a couple of inches of snow after a mixy event. Good luck and enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Some of you guys are pathetic...living and dying by every model run..Its the NAM, it jumps around. Its nice for timing of storms, but generally it sucks on QPF and northern extrent of precip until basically under 24 hour..Im riding with a blend of GFS/EURO and Im golden for 6-10...If you want 3 feet move to Watertown NY or something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Not worried yet about any south trend. Now, if the rest of model suite follows tonight then maybe something consider. But as Matt has mentioned north shift seems probable. As most of us know storms tend to trend N/NW. Also, models have increased QPF last 24 hrs. Do you think that trend is over? Being that most storms have over performed this year. Matt, Bob ? Thanks. A relatively narrow qpf jackpot seems locked in.Everyone within 50 miles either way will do well. I personally doubt the max stripe moves much from where it is. Maybe 25 miles. Could be wrong. Just a guess. Not sure how much wetter it can get overall. As it stands now it's about as efficient as you can get with wringing out the atmosphere. If anything the 1.5"+ stuff is suspect to me. If I was on the northern fringe of trends i would be nervous but I doubt good precip moving further south is as likely as it coming back north a tad. Both are possible of course. I like where my yard is that's for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I like the timing of this snowfall better than the last big one. By the time I woke up on 2/13 accumulations were too much for my modest sized snow blower, and I ended up shoveling a lot. This time, looks like later in the morning and more during daylight, so should be able to stay in front if IAD area ends up in the heavier bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 nope South? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I'm starting to realize, while the shortwave is trending stronger, its trending in a more positive angle...Need that baby to tilt a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Some of you guys are pathetic...living and dying by every model run..Its the NAM, it jumps around. Its nice for timing of storms, but generally it sucks on QPF and northern extrent of precip until basically under 24 hour..Im riding with a blend of GFS/EURO and Im golden for 6-10...If you want 3 feet move to Watertown NY or something I understand it is the NAM... but the RGEM followed suit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I'm really impressed with the cold temps being shown. Good grief how cold is it gonna be Tues morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 1, 2014 Author Share Posted March 1, 2014 South? Yes. not a shut out by any means, but heaviest is south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 South? yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I understand it is the NAM... but the RGEM followed suit As if Im suppose to think the RGEM is THAT much better than the NAM...if the 0z GFS and 0Z EURO fringe me at 0Z, Ill worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 As the models raise the stakes everyone's expectations go with it. I'm not worried about the south thing at all. It's almost locked to be a decent storm for all of us. Let the chips fall at this point Eta: just a few short days ago we were wondering if we would get anything good at all 36 hours out and we jackpot, Philly wins. All year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I understand it is the NAM... but the RGEM followed suit If you want someone to come in and tell you, you;re going to get crushed, it isn't going to happen or they will be conveying more confidence than they should....so STOP... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 18Z RGEM total snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I am glad to see the chances of extensive freezing rain out this way appears to be diminishing prior to the snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jums300 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 18Z RGEM total snow rgem_total_snow.jpg That's not bad at all...18z GFS is up and running..Let's see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Let's keep this thread CONTRIBUTORY.....meaning add something of value or ask a valuable question that hasn't been addressed yet that is something other than a circuitous way to ask "how much for my backyard". I will cut down on my own banter.. There is nothing wrong with reading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 A relatively narrow qpf jackpot seems locked in.Everyone within 50 miles either way will do well. I personally doubt the max stripe moves much from where it is. Maybe 25 miles. Could be wrong. Just a guess. Not sure how much wetter it can get overall. As it stands now it's about as efficient as you can get with wringing out the atmosphere. If anything the 1.5"+ stuff is suspect to me. If I was on the northern fringe of trends i would be nervous but I doubt good precip moving further south is as likely as it coming back north a tad. Both are possible of course. I like where my yard is that's for sure Thanks man. I still think 5" is my bar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 1, 2014 Author Share Posted March 1, 2014 18Z RGEM total snow rgem_total_snow.jpg Not as bad as I thought. RGEM is solid hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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