cgillesp Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 The NWS forecast is at 10.9" for DC. Seems a bit above consensus, and I've never known LWX to be bullish. What gives? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Confidence factor for > 12 per probabilistic guidance. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/winter/images/snowProbGT12.png Over 20% chance I'll see 12"? I'll take it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Confidence factor for > 12 per probabilistic guidance. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/winter/images/snowProbGT12.png That's pretty bullish...for LWX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Confidence factor for > 12 per probabilistic guidance. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/winter/images/snowProbGT12.png Lil over 40%... pretty good odds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I'm mostly just reading but I have one question for you all, haven't seen it asked elsewhere: When the models show total snowfall maps are they taking into consideration ground conditions? In other words, is it just calculating total snowfall based on what falls from the sky and assuming everything sticks? Or does it account for some not accumulating intially based on it raining intially, warmer temps, etc. I believe they take virga into consideration but I wasn't sure how it handles situations like these, especially with a changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Confidence factor for > 12 per probabilistic guidance. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/winter/images/snowProbGT12.png They are really bullish. Might pay off for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 As I'm learning the forum ropes... What is a troll? Basically any post thats designed to make your ears bleed and increase your urge to kill A little clarification: a Troll is someone that makes such posts, Trolling is the action of making such posts, usually by someone that knows much better. Neither is suffered very well in here. Examples: - How much IMBY (in my back yard) - Not trolling, just a stupid post in a model discussion - Oh, no! The 12z NAM is south again and its superior resolution means it's picking up nuance that the Globals are missing! Oh, no! - definitely trolling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cgillesp Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Confidence factor for > 12 per probabilistic guidance. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/winter/images/snowProbGT12.png On the other hand that suite of maps has DC in the 10-14 range. I think I'll stick with WPC for for their probabilistic maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Looks like a good GFS run, 1 inch QPF DC --> BWI at 30 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 It is a forecast accumulation on grass. Doesn't account for roads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 12z GFS about 5-6" for DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 From what I see, it look like the GFS is a little more north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 ROA crushing at 27 hrs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Looks like a good GFS run, 1 inch QPF DC --> BWI at 30 hours. it's about 6" for me and you....another troubling run from the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 GFS still holding strong with the 1" liquid. Looks like it could be a little warm for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 The NWS forecast is at 10.9" for DC. Seems a bit above consensus, and I've never known LWX to be bullish. What gives? I was surprised by their max/min and expected value range, it sure seems higher than they usually go. I've often wondered if they oscillate back and forth, going lower if they busted too high on a previous forecast, then going higher if they went too low previously (if that makes sense). I do recall for the Feb. 12-13 storm, they seemed awfully low. All guidance was giving the area probably 6-12" on average, with higher amounts farther west where it stayed snow longer. But LWX was going 4-6" in the metro area. They may have been swayed by the GFS, which was chronically light on that event until right near when it started. It's really tricky in this area as you probably know, since the forecast will greatly affect millions of people (quite literally), and many decisions. I've sometimes been down on them, but I do not at all envy their position given the high-profile location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I'm mostly just reading but I have one question for you all, haven't seen it asked elsewhere: When the models show total snowfall maps are they taking into consideration ground conditions? In other words, is it just calculating total snowfall based on what falls from the sky and assuming everything sticks? Or does it account for some not accumulating intially based on it raining intially, warmer temps, etc. I believe they take virga into consideration but I wasn't sure how it handles situations like these, especially with a changeover. It's snowfall not snow depth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Don't think GFS is that troubling. I thought it can underdo precipitation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I still don't understand LWX products Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Could be reading it wrong, but instantweathermaps show surface temps dropping below freezing after 9Z on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 The GFS is a nice storm. Not close to the Euro. But its a good storm for all of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 On the other hand that suite of maps has DC in the 10-14 range. I think I'll stick with WPC for for their probabilistic maps. Those experimental (I think they're still listed that way on their site) plots are a fantastic resource, I think. Both the probabilistic for various amounts and their percentile accumulation maps. ETA: I'm referring to the WPC maps in particular here, though I do like that LWX has been showing ranges and probabilities for the local area, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Precip isn't the problem on the GFS. Don't think GFS is that troubling. I thought it can underdo precipitation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Confidence factor for > 12 per probabilistic guidance. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/winter/images/snowProbGT12.png Wow. Bullseye I-66 corridor. Hard to read on the phone but it looks like the RGEM expects more of a SE flow on the back end, giving RIC good back end while not suppressing as much as the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Gfs is widespread 1 - 1.2 cities and burbs but .4 is definitely non-frozen verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 yeah GFS looks like 5-8" for Baltimore and surrounding burbs. QPF looks good, things came a bit north. As some are saying, a bit warmer, which leads to the more northern solution (at least minutely). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 yeah GFS looks like 5-8" for Baltimore and surrounding burbs. QPF looks good, things came a bit north. As some are saying, a bit warmer, which leads to the more northern solution (at least minutely). Yep, still a very nice snowstorm for DC and Baltimore. By 6z we are definitely frozen and by 9z all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Gfs is widespread 1 - 1.2 cities and burbs but .4 is definitely non-frozen verbatim GFS still has the latest changeover of any model even though it goes below freezing earlier....I think a wildcard is how much frozen falls between midnight and 4am, and when does it change to snow..Euro has been on board with definitely getting some accumulating snow between 1am and 4am....if we have to wait until 5, then obviously we will get less snow....I am having trouble getting on board with any insane amounts as it looks like a 12 hour snow event tops....which is usually a good signal for 8" in a heavy snow event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Gfs is widespread 1 - 1.2 cities and burbs but .4 is definitely non-frozen verbatim Yeah, there's an initial slug of moisture, I guess associated with the front or first wave, that goes through prior to 06Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Yep, still a very nice snowstorm for DC and Baltimore. By 6z we are definitely frozen. Ptype maps show some good sleet at 6z. Surface freezing down by pg/charles line so it prob goes to sleet between 11-midnight depending on location Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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