Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 As I'm learning the forum ropes... What is a troll? Basically any post thats designed to make your ears bleed and increase your urge to kill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 It doesn't really look crappy. People focus on their back yards, and interpret a model as such. The models are overall in very good agreement. There are always differences in qpf, wrt placement and amounts, and timing. The panic stricken need to just not post, or take a valium. not in absolute terms, but relatively speaking iow, it's the lowest of all the models which makes it the crappiest model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 RGEM has been like a rock last two days. And I think it has done a pretty nice job this winter. Agree. I think everyone's misgivings about the NAM are because in these storms we are usually mocking its qpf numbers as way too high. Instead, it's the lowest guidance. Curb the enthusiasm and assume 6" and anything more is gravy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 12z RGEM tells weenies to sit down... as Randy posted above the 24 hr map for me and you there really isn't some massive difference in the guidance...worst model gives us 0.5" snow, and euro is close to 0.8 - 0.9:, which is a good model to have in your corner, but I am not going to hug it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 The RGEM has barely moved for several cycles. Still throws the precip well into PA and doesn't give RIC a HECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dukeblue219 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 As I'm learning the forum ropes... What is a troll? Somebody posting just to get a reaction out of others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Basically any post thats designed to make your ears bleed and increase your urge to kill I think 6-10" is a savvy forecast for me and you at this moment.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 2, 2014 Author Share Posted March 2, 2014 The RGEM has barely moved for several cycles. Still throws the precip well into PA and doesn't give RIC a HECS. It does with the Next Panel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 The RGEM has barely moved for several cycles. Still throws the precip well into PA and doesn't give RIC a HECS. 36 hrs. I would say it "may" have come a bit south by a short distance, but not much (adding 24 hr and 36 hrmaps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 If I were right along the PA line, Id be sweating a little but anyone from Baltimore south should do no problem getting 6-10. with lollies of 12-14" Sweating, why? 4-8" for us up here is a damn good snow for the beginning of March. No one should be sweating at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Basically any post thats designed to make your ears bleed and increase your urge to kill POTY hahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Symblized Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 As I'm learning the forum ropes... What is a troll? A good primer: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Troll_(Internet) Basically it's anybody who posts just to rile others up. In this forum, I have found that it's often folks who post disingenuous or obviously dishonest model interpretations even though they know better, posters from other regions (or even this region) who gloat/whine, those who post complaints or thinly-veiled (or not so veiled) insults directed at others, and those who lie about obs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I think 6-10" is a savvy forecast for me and you at this moment.... Yea it does. Im probably looking more forward to how fast whatever my total is can pile up than getting a max pile. The rates in the final band of the second mini-storm last week had me fired up. But only lasted 15 minutes. Give me a few hours of that during daylight and all is right with the world Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Symblized Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 36 hrs. I would say it "may" have come a bit south by a short distance, but not much (adding 24 hr and 36 hrmaps Yeah that's somewhat south, adding the 12 hour panels on the 24 and 36 together. Precip maxes looked closer to our area (meaning closer to mitchnick and I) last night, now looks south by quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 As I'm learning the forum ropes... What is a troll? Messaged you. If you have any board related questions, feel free to PM me or an Admin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Yea it does. Im probably looking more forward to how fast whatever my total is can pile up than getting a max pile. The rates in the final band of the second mini-storm last week had me fired up. But only lasted 15 minutes. Give me a few hours of that during daylight and all is right with the world Rates are very important to me too, but the difference between 4" and 8" is astronomical....I'm having trouble feigning indifference and being zen about the whole thing when the best model in the history of mankind gives me 10"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Hi-res NAM improves the QPF on the northern fringe vs the regular NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Sweating, why? 4-8" for us up here is a damn good snow for the beginning of March. No one should be sweating at all Well it depends on how you look at it...yes you are correct, but just a couple days ago the max snow was along the PA line..clearly not the case now. Like I said yesterday, people need to relax anyway, if you want 3 feet of snow move to Watertown NY or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I just want some of the heavy to actually be during daylight when people witness it happen this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Rates are very important to me too, but the difference between 4" and 8" is astronomical....I'm having trouble feigning indifference and being zen about the whole thing when the best model in the history of mankind gives me 10"+ I think 6+ is very high prob. This setup is a very efficient sponge wringer. About as good as you can get without some ccb/deform setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I think 6-10" is a savvy forecast for me and you at this moment.... I like the CWg forecast of 5-9 but think the bottom end may be low. Of course the difference between 5-9 and 6-10 is pretty small except maybe psychologically.....double digits tend to scare people except here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Thanks guys I appreciate the help. I definitely got some not so polite remarks when I first joined and wanted to pull hair out of my head for sure but am settling in and enjoying the forum. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 5h setup thru 12 is weaker and southwest lets see where she goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I like the CWg forecast of 5-9 but think the bottom end may be low. Of course the difference between 5-9 and 6-10 is pretty small except maybe psychologically.....double digits tend to scare people except here. 5-9" is a good forecast right now......I agree about the bottom end...even the most recent runs of the NAM/GFS give us 6-7"....but you can always tweak later without having to make a big adjustment.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I like the CWg forecast of 5-9 but think the bottom end may be low. Of course the difference between 5-9 and 6-10 is pretty small except maybe psychologically.....double digits tend to scare people except here. Ha! Yeah, ain't that the truth! We all pray for double-digit snow here, while most other (some would say sane) people in the area hate it when we just get a couple of inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 It happens to everyone. Thanks for having thick skin and hanging in there. Thanks guys I appreciate the help. I definitely got some not so polite remarks when I first joined and wanted to pull hair out of my head for sure but am settling in and enjoying the forum. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Thanks guys I appreciate the help. I definitely got some not so polite remarks when I first joined and wanted to pull hair out of my head for sure but am settling in and enjoying the forum. :-) You also probably need to get up to speed about "banter," which is that discussions like descriptions of trolls and whatnot probably shouldn't be in a model thread 18 hours before a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Confidence factor for > 12 per probabilistic guidance. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/winter/images/snowProbGT12.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 RGEM is still very nice for DC not as nice for BWI: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Precip shield is much larger on this GFS run. Everyone is gonna be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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