mitchnick Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 there's always 1 model that that looks crappy vs. consensus with every decent storm last event it was the GFS, this time the NAM no big deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 The LWX snow map is the same as it was at 3am. I meant changed from last night lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I don't understand why that upsets people lol. 8-9" for downtown DC is great IMO. More to the south. If I were right along the PA line, Id be sweating a little but anyone from Baltimore south should do no problem getting 6-10. with lollies of 12-14" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Wait a minute -- I thought the NAM was a disaster until I saw that map. Yeah the heaviest is south of DC but it's still a nice hit for much of the area. Also, regarding that "snow hole" in northern MD -- like THAT is going to happen along Pars Ridge LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 This. The NAM continues to show a lack of consistency. I'll wait for the 12z suite to fully roll in before making any assumptions based off the NAM. The nam has been consistently sucky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Wait a minute -- I thought the NAM was a disaster until I saw that map. Yeah the heaviest is south of DC but it's still a nice hit for much of the area. Also, regarding that "snow hole" in northern MD -- like THAT is going to happen along Pars Ridge LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Well the snow hole over Carroll County is gone. BTW... the RAP has Northern Carroll close to 3 inches by 5 AM thank goodness for that. BTW, which model handled the 2/12-13 storm best? Didn't the close in NAM get the main idea right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Who said the run was good? Who said I liked it? That's not the point. We all know you're just trolling because you're going to miss it, but I'm talking about those here who saw this EXACT thing happen last night in the NAM and it was an outlier. Can't people even wait for some other guidance before hand wringing? Lol I'm trolling? I was up for euro and 6z nam last night . Why would I want my backyard to see minimum snow? I would of posted the same thing regardless of where I am. Is it an outlier? Thankfully yes but the run is an abortion for mby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hokierulz98 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Is this enough reason to toss it? Haha that was what I was thinking also. Seriously unless the RGEM comes South at 12z I'm not buying it that Richmond is going to be near the bulleye. The RGEM has been so much better than the NAM this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 there's always 1 model that that looks crappy vs. consensus with every decent storm last event it was the GFS, this time the NAM no big deal It doesn't really look crappy. People focus on their back yards, and interpret a model as such. The models are overall in very good agreement. There are always differences in qpf, wrt placement and amounts, and timing. The panic stricken need to just not post, or take a valium. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 If I were right along the PA line, Id be sweating a little but anyone from Baltimore south should do no problem getting 6-10. with lollies of 12-14"Fully expecting a dusting as always. Either way day off from the daily grind is a lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 The NAM is still fine. Looks like it just wants to be on the southern end of the envelope. Still 6-12 across the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 People need to check their expectations. 6-10 area wide. Don't expect some BS total and you won't find this so difficult. For realz. Either check out the latest SREF to soothe themselves or just go do something else. FYI, a high res mesoscale model WILL have run-to-run 20-mile shifts that low-res globals won't necessarily. Do not take one run of one model as verbatim fact. As Isohume said in another thread...every model is wrong all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Right on schedule. No kidding...you can set your watch by it!! Now I will say, the NAM is disconcerting, but at the same time a big "WTF" from run-to-run (e.g., comparing 06Z to the current 12Z). It still is pretty darned good, perhaps can be used as somewhat of a lower bound or something like that. If you look at 06Z vs. 12Z, the 0.50" QPF line is more or less in the same place in southern PA. It's the amounts (and gradient) to the south of there that are fluctuating, as best as I can tell. I'd think at this point 6-12" is a good range area-wide, which is more or less in line with what LWX is saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 The NAM is still fine. Looks like it just wants to be on the southern end of the envelope. Still 6-12 across the area. Exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowpocalypse Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 For cliff divers over the NAM.. DT says "DOWNTOWN DC WILL SEE 12 "+" Not everyone ho reads this thread is from DC. I for one am cliff diving for my area. Extreme northeast Maryland. No I never expected over a foot but even 6 seems like a stretch now. Yes I do live and die with every model run. That was close... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 The NAM has a wheelhouse? It busted hard on a 6hr forecast up here on the 16th. Depending on the run the only house the NAM has is an outhouse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Wait a minute -- I thought the NAM was a disaster until I saw that map. Yeah the heaviest is south of DC but it's still a nice hit for much of the area. Also, regarding that "snow hole" in northern MD -- like THAT is going to happen along Pars Ridge LOL. Exactly, it's not a bad map. Area wide the DC metro area is somewhat over 6" (kind of hard to see exactly with the color shading). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Fully expecting a dusting as always. Either way day off from the daily grind is a lock. I never said anything about a dusting...Just saying if I was near PA line and expecting 6" or more Id be a little ..Its fully possible that 4-6" is more plausible there than 6-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 2, 2014 Author Share Posted March 2, 2014 RGEM says, no NAM, no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Good advice would be just to let the chips fall now. We're definitely getting snowed on and pretty decently no matter what. Narrow max storms bounce all the way to onset. Blend of all guidance is rock solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 12z RGEM tells weenies to sit down... as Randy posted above the 24 hr map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Current guidance for DC in my best estimation...assumes <1/2" sleet, and blended ratios of 12:1 12zNAM - 7" 6z GFS - 7" 0z GGEM - 8" 0z Euro - 10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 RGEM has been like a rock last two days. And I think it has done a pretty nice job this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 RGEM says, no NAM, no. That sounds so...Seussian. I will not take it, NAM I am? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Good advice would be just to let the chips fall now. We're definitely getting snowed on and pretty decently no matter what. Narrow max storms bounce all the way to onset. Blend of all guidance is rock solid. Yep, take a blend and you get a great storm and crashing temps. Not much to complain about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 As I'm learning the forum ropes... What is a troll? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 These RGEM maps are very hard to read. Can someone break it down for me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 ne.weather snow forecasting contest. Submit entries until 7pm tonite. http://www.newx-forecasts.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I would say the RGEM just told the NAM to sit down, please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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