Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Quick question, I have been here just reading as I like this forum better since it basically focuses on DC/Balto. I was just on the Accuweather forum til someone there put a link to here, anyway...... they (aacuweather forum) is saying that the CMC, GFS and the EURO have all gone north (way north they say for the CMC), now what I'm seeing here and what they are saying (maybe wishing) is totally different and they are saying they heard it on here. Are we Balto (mainly) still going to get the amount that was shown earlier today from the EURO ( I know no one knows exactly for sure, but I'm getting confused w/mixed reports. Which I love this forum and was only there to see the NY and NE ppl cry lol. Thanks for any insight, sorry for the off topic, keep up the great work! I'm not sure what they mean by the CMC, GFS, Euro going north (or "way north" for the CMC). They haven't trended that way, their solutions as far as I can tell have been fairly consistent now for awhile. The precip shield may have wavered some, but not nearly as dramatically as the past couple of NAM runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Awesome run, I think this event can do a lot better than 10:1, at least after the first 20% of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I'd assume warnings are hoisted in the next update by LWX. I am sure Yoda is on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnoelovertoo Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I'm not sure what they mean by the CMC, GFS, Euro going north (or "way north" for the CMC). They haven't trended that way, their solutions as far as I can tell have been fairly consistent now for awhile. The precip shield may have wavered some, but not nearly as dramatically as the past couple of NAM runs. k thank you so much for answering my questions! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 k thank you so much for answering my questions! Not a problem! Lord knows I ask my fair share as well. I'm not totally sure of the validity of what I said, going by memory here (and at nearly 1:30AM!). But perhaps others can chime in one way or another. Just that it seems to me the major global guidance has been pretty solid for the past day or so worth of runs if I'm recalling correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Thanks for that explanation on the NAM. Brings to light why every other piece of 00Z guidance tonight has held serve. Any detail on why you think it's getting the synoptic picture incorrect, in particular? I can understand the differences you're describing and the impact it has on the resulting solution, but curious as to why its evolution would not be right. I am assuming it's incorrect because of these differences with wave handling, driving the 850mb dry punch SE quicker than every other model. So, I don't know that it's wrong but I am tossing it for its differences. I'll also assume the GFS/ECMWF will better handle these sorts of things. If the NAM matched synoptically, and we had a convective element being modeled, then I would give it more credence. The picture is classic sloped frontogenesis but the undercutting cold/dry tightens gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnoelovertoo Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Not a problem! Lord knows I ask my fair share as well. I'm not totally sure of the validity of what I said, going by memory here (and at nearly 1:30AM!). But perhaps others can chime in one way or another. Just that it seems to me the major global guidance has been pretty solid for the past day or so worth of runs if I'm recalling correctly. lol I just closed accuweather, they (NY ppl) arguing that all the pinks on EURO will be in PA tomorrow (talk abour wishcasting) and they are really bad mouthing American, I think I will stay here, lot less tension and more humor sometimes then they allow over there lol Thanks again this forum has some very nice and knowledgeable people! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I will miss the storm but it's very important to me. I come back Wednesday morning so I want to see as much snow as possible in my yard. Plus I need my 8-12 to verify. I've stolen some snowstorms flying for work. One in Montreal. One in Chicago. Monday I lose big Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I am assuming it's incorrect because of these differences with wave handling, driving the 850mb dry punch SE quicker than every other model. So, I don't know that it's wrong but I am tossing it for its differences. I'll also assume the GFS/ECMWF will better handle these sorts of things. If the NAM matched synoptically, and we had a convective element being modeled, then I would give it more credence. The picture is classic sloped frontogenesis but the undercutting cold/dry tightens gradient. Ah, OK...thanks much for that explanation! Makes things clearer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Even with "only" 1.1 QPF the Mason Dixon area still will get a lashing with ratios. Be curious to see how average ratios work out but I bet 15:1 for this whole region is doable, could be close to 20:1 by endgame. Blowing and drifting fun. For March this is a dream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 10-20-30.. 10 inches, 20-1 ratios, 30mph winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Even with "only" 1.1 QPF the Mason Dixon area still will get a lashing with ratios. Be curious to see how average ratios work out but I bet 15:1 for this whole region is doable, could be close to 20:1 by endgame. Blowing and drifting fun. For March this is a dream. Euro has northern md at 26 degrees with -3 850's at 6z. By 12z surface temps are in low to mid teens with -10 850's. Can't rule out 20 to 1 ratios for the last .3 or so qpf. Total qpf. is 1.08. I would guess .75 of that is all snow. We can get a foot if we get a little lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 HPC's updated QPF map. Issued at 12:50 am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 We are a rare breed lol. 98% of the population calls this a nightmare. To everyone here and myself. It's heaven on earth. I love these storms and I am glad to see the whole subform is getting smashed. I love the PA subforum also, but my climo is Baltimore County north. Most of the PA forum is getting fringed which has been the case most of this season. I am thrilled for DC, NOVA, and my office in Baltimore. Game on. March is roaring! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 We are a rare breed lol. 98% of the population calls this a nightmare. To everyone here and myself. It's heaven on earth. Even though this isn't the forum I should be in, this will be my only post here so I can say this. It's so boring at the Philadelphia region part of the forum because everybody went to bed because it's a bust for them. XD I think I'm one of two people on that forum who's getting like 10-14 inches ( NWS and other models ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 FWIW, both 00z NMM and ARW bring 1+" QPF in the run (48 hrs)... ARW is a lil bit more than the NMM and more expansive with a broad 1.0-1.25 QPF shield and the 1.25 to 1.50 QPF field... however, both have extremely sharp cut-offs at Mason-Dixon line They can be found here -- http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/model-guidance-model-area.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=sref&area=namer&ps=area NMM has 0c 850 line cross through DCA at ~2am... ARW has 0c 850 line cross through DCA around 2am or slightly before 3am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 03z SREFs have 2mT 0c line cross through DCA around midnight... 06z (1am MON) map has it just south of DCA... crosses through IAD/BWI just after 03z (10pm SUN) 12z (7am) MON morning temps: DCA/IAD/BWI ~20 at while EZF ~23 0c 850 line crosses DCA ~3am... IAD/BWI just after 1am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Checking in from Waikiki--can anyone give a synopsis? 75 and pcloudy. Tell me what I'm missing here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 FWIW, both 00z NMM and ARW bring 1+" QPF in the run (48 hrs)... ARW is a lil bit more than the NMM and more expansive with a broad 1.0-1.25 QPF shield and the 1.25 to 1.50 QPF field... however, both have extremely sharp cut-offs at Mason-Dixon line They can be found here -- http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/model-guidance-model-area.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=sref&area=namer&ps=area NMM has 0c 850 line cross through DCA at ~2am... ARW has 0c 850 line cross through DCA around 2am or slightly before 3am Thanks Yoda. I'm not as familiar with the NMM and ARW. So are these the operational runs while the NMM & ARW members are fed into the SREFs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Thanks Yoda. I'm not as familiar with the NMM and ARW. So are these the operational runs while the NMM & ARW members are fed into the SREFs? NMM and ARW are separate HI-RES models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Swiscaster-What is going on is if you are supposed to fly back Monday and maybe Tuesday-you won't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Swiscaster-What is going on is if you are supposed to fly back Monday and maybe Tuesday-you won't. Not coming back til Sunday, but thanks. Was looking for a little more info to provide my au pair while I'm gone. Sounds like a good bet FFX CO schools closed Mon and Tues? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Probably no school Mon or Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Not coming back til Sunday, but thanks. Was looking for a little more info to provide my au pair while I'm gone. Sounds like a good bet FFX CO schools closed Mon and Tues? Looking like 6-10" and bitter cold. I would say no school Monday and Tuesday for FFX CO is likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Checking in from Waikiki--can anyone give a synopsis? 75 and pcloudy. Tell me what I'm missing here. Why do you need a synopsis when you could just read the thread and get your answers sooner than waiting for someone to respond? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Looking like 6-10" and bitter cold. I would say no school Monday and Tuesday for FFX CO is likely. OK, thanks, Grothar. This could be the first storm I've missed in my 40 years living in DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 No one up for nam? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 No one up for nam? Yup, it is looking a lot better so far through 35. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I am up... give me a min... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 7" on the ground by 1 p.m. Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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