Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

March 2-3 Disco, Part III


stormtracker

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.8k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

As if the latest ECMWF run wasn't enough evidence for you, the 00z NAM is out to lunch for a synoptic reason. It is slowest with Pacific wave and strongest with Ontario-Quebec wave. The combination allows a dry punch (around 850mb +/- 100mb) to drop in substantially. It isn't dry because of convective reasons/banding...it's dry because it's probably getting the synoptic picture wrong.

Enjoy the snowstorm guys!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This is the second run in a row that the Euro has brought the heaviest snow band north.  But it has also tightened the gradient to the north.

 

On another note, I think the UKMET had the 850 0C line out in front of the surface. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Quick question, I have been here just reading as I like this forum better since it basically focuses on DC/Balto. I was just on the Accuweather forum til someone there put a link to here, anyway...... they (aacuweather forum) is saying that the CMC, GFS and the EURO have all gone north (way north they say for the CMC), now what I'm seeing here and what they are saying (maybe wishing) is totally different and they are saying they heard it on here. Are we Balto (mainly) still going to get the amount that was shown earlier today from the EURO ( I know no one knows exactly for sure, but I'm getting confused w/mixed reports. Which I love this forum and was only there to see the NY and NE ppl cry lol.

 

Thanks for any insight, sorry for the off topic, keep up the great work!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

As if the latest ECMWF run wasn't enough evidence for you, the 00z NAM is out to lunch for a synoptic reason. It is slowest with Pacific wave and strongest with Ontario-Quebec wave. The combination allows a dry punch (around 850mb +/- 100mb) to drop in substantially. It isn't dry because of convective reasons/banding...it's dry because it's probably getting the synoptic picture wrong.

Enjoy the snowstorm guys!

Thanks HM, greatly appreciate you always giving us your thoughts. I hope you can get in on some of the fun.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

As if the latest ECMWF run wasn't enough evidence for you, the 00z NAM is out to lunch for a synoptic reason. It is slowest with Pacific wave and strongest with Ontario-Quebec wave. The combination allows a dry punch (around 850mb +/- 100mb) to drop in substantially. It isn't dry because of convective reasons/banding...it's dry because it's probably getting the synoptic picture wrong.

Enjoy the snowstorm guys!

 

Thanks for that explanation on the NAM.  Brings to light why every other piece of 00Z guidance tonight has held serve.  Any detail on why you think it's getting the synoptic picture incorrect, in particular?  I can understand the differences you're describing and the impact it has on the resulting solution, but curious as to why its evolution would not be right.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Thanks HM, greatly appreciate you always giving us your thoughts. I hope you can get in on some of the fun.

 

No problem. I guess the Euro is about 0.8-0.9ish in the Philly-Mount Laurel area, hard to tell. But this is all about the DC area...

 

Thanks for sharing  :)

 

The tension was high in here during most of yesterday but this is about as good a spot we can be in less than 24 hours out. To think, just a few days ago we weren't sure if we would have temps on our side.

The NAM is actually producing decent mid level frontogen/omega and snow growth in the lower QPF regions but it is just delivering this massive dry punch. It simply eats the flakes. And yeah...I can't believe how fast this storm evolution changed, simply because the shape/position of the Quebec PV altered a little!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...