stormtracker Posted March 2, 2014 Author Share Posted March 2, 2014 euro snow.png And that's strictly 10:1 ratio...could be higher for some part of the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 We get to enjoy our foot of snow with sub-zero temps Tues morning... sick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 2, 2014 Author Share Posted March 2, 2014 Nothing left to analyze. We get smoked. End of story goodnight Yup...i'm out...quick 3 hours at work tomorrow for OT and then I'm in full tracking mode Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Weenies from Eurowx showing 15" in DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 1.25" DC and western burbs..1" north of Baltimore....0.8 to M/D line...but wxbell should have a better idea.... I'd say 0.9" snow for DC ninja'ed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 What helps is .58 of snow falls at night before 7am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 euro snow.png Oy Gevalt, that is friggin sweet to look at! So, we have the 00Z GFS/Euro/GGEM/RGEM/UKIE all very much in the same ballpark. And those have remained more or less fairly consistent I believe, in their last several cycles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I would expect that we start under 10 and end up around 15. Maybe an average of around 12:1 for the duration. Nice! Notice the 10:1 ratio. LWX is saying 15:1 likely, so we can safely say that's the low end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 As if the latest ECMWF run wasn't enough evidence for you, the 00z NAM is out to lunch for a synoptic reason. It is slowest with Pacific wave and strongest with Ontario-Quebec wave. The combination allows a dry punch (around 850mb +/- 100mb) to drop in substantially. It isn't dry because of convective reasons/banding...it's dry because it's probably getting the synoptic picture wrong. Enjoy the snowstorm guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Not that it matters to folks in here, but that gradient in southern PA is sick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Another deep powder dog walk Monday am but I get to sleep first this tim. Epic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Nothing left to analyze. We get smoked. End of story goodnight Amen to that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJDC Wx Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 euro snow.png That's a carbon copy the hpc probability maps. Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 This is the second run in a row that the Euro has brought the heaviest snow band north. But it has also tightened the gradient to the north. On another note, I think the UKMET had the 850 0C line out in front of the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Coldies..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnoelovertoo Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Quick question, I have been here just reading as I like this forum better since it basically focuses on DC/Balto. I was just on the Accuweather forum til someone there put a link to here, anyway...... they (aacuweather forum) is saying that the CMC, GFS and the EURO have all gone north (way north they say for the CMC), now what I'm seeing here and what they are saying (maybe wishing) is totally different and they are saying they heard it on here. Are we Balto (mainly) still going to get the amount that was shown earlier today from the EURO ( I know no one knows exactly for sure, but I'm getting confused w/mixed reports. Which I love this forum and was only there to see the NY and NE ppl cry lol. Thanks for any insight, sorry for the off topic, keep up the great work! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 2, 2014 Author Share Posted March 2, 2014 Weenies from Eurowx showing 15" in DC. Actually looking closely, I think it's 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 As if the latest ECMWF run wasn't enough evidence for you, the 00z NAM is out to lunch for a synoptic reason. It is slowest with Pacific wave and strongest with Ontario-Quebec wave. The combination allows a dry punch (around 850mb +/- 100mb) to drop in substantially. It isn't dry because of convective reasons/banding...it's dry because it's probably getting the synoptic picture wrong. Enjoy the snowstorm guys! Thanks HM, greatly appreciate you always giving us your thoughts. I hope you can get in on some of the fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Actually looking closely, I think it's 18 Yup just went back it is 15-18" for DC and 12-15" for Baltimore, just WOW. I am almost sure they take into account ratios unlike Wxbell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Looks like King Euro gave the NAM a warm bottle of milk, put it to bed, and told it to wake up later today and try harder. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I'd assume warnings are hoisted in the next update by LWX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 As if the latest ECMWF run wasn't enough evidence for you, the 00z NAM is out to lunch for a synoptic reason. It is slowest with Pacific wave and strongest with Ontario-Quebec wave. The combination allows a dry punch (around 850mb +/- 100mb) to drop in substantially. It isn't dry because of convective reasons/banding...it's dry because it's probably getting the synoptic picture wrong. Enjoy the snowstorm guys! Thanks for that explanation on the NAM. Brings to light why every other piece of 00Z guidance tonight has held serve. Any detail on why you think it's getting the synoptic picture incorrect, in particular? I can understand the differences you're describing and the impact it has on the resulting solution, but curious as to why its evolution would not be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I'd assume warnings are hoisted in the next update by LWX. Yes i would assume by 4 a.m. they are up. I think they go 6-10" Baltimore and 8-12" DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 3am to noon is main event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Thanks HM, greatly appreciate you always giving us your thoughts. I hope you can get in on some of the fun. No problem. I guess the Euro is about 0.8-0.9ish in the Philly-Mount Laurel area, hard to tell. But this is all about the DC area... Thanks for sharing The tension was high in here during most of yesterday but this is about as good a spot we can be in less than 24 hours out. To think, just a few days ago we weren't sure if we would have temps on our side. The NAM is actually producing decent mid level frontogen/omega and snow growth in the lower QPF regions but it is just delivering this massive dry punch. It simply eats the flakes. And yeah...I can't believe how fast this storm evolution changed, simply because the shape/position of the Quebec PV altered a little! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Not that it matters to folks in here, but that gradient in southern PA is sick. LNS county is 0.5" in the North and 1.0" in South. Crazy stuff. High ratio snow for everyone. You get 15:1, you get 15:1. Everyone gets 15:1 ratio snow. Wooop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I'd assume warnings are hoisted in the next update by LWX. Should be in the 330am update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Coldies..... ecmwf_t2min_washdc_12.png That b chilly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 40 degree temperature drop in 18-24 hours, big snow, I think we will have to get some strong ne winds late, and temperature departures approaching -35. I'm gettin' kinda skirred. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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