snowfan Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I'm comfy with this now. Aside from the one big storm that slid under us well to the south, most storms have trended N/NW during nowcast time. I see no reason to believe this will be any different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jums300 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 it looks decent even for N MD....It shows that some banding will set up NW and N of Baltimore per climo and per being on the northern periphery of the good push.... Well...that's a difference... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 hopefully it misses you if you're in PA for the storm I'm pretty sure I'll be in MD, I like my chances there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I'm pretty sure I'll be in MD, I like my chances there. You'll be fine I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jums300 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Can someone post a picture of the hiRes NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Anyone have EURO ens? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Well...that's a difference... places that flip earlier, may actually get into some banding out ahead of the main push...I don't think the FDK/Westminster crew should be that concerned...Can't speak to Lancaster or Philly but they're in a different region, and they have like 115" this year, so it is kind of a waste of brain space to care what happens to them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Anyone have EURO ens? James in the southeast forum says the euro control run and the ensembles are further south than the operational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Anyone have EURO ens? They're south and not that great...6" for DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Can someone post a picture of the hiRes NAM? How about you offer something to the forum 1st..maybe if you contribute something that benefits the community, people might reciprocate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Storm is tracking south it looks like. Hopefully there is another shift in the cards or we may miss out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Last problem I thought we would have with this storm was it being too far south. Not too worried about Euro ens at this range, but the op and also the 18z NAM..wow. Getting pretty interesting for central and southern VA now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY. EXPECT QUITE A STRATIFICATION OF TEMPERATURES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON SUNDAY WITH AROUND 40 NEAR THE MASON DIXON TO LINE TO PERHAPS ABOVE 60 TOWARD THE CENTRAL VA FOOTHILLS. FRONT WILL WIND UP IN SOUTHERN VIRGINIA BY DAYS END SUNDAY. ONE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED OVERRUNNING/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO BREAK OUT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY...BUT COLDER AIR BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PRESS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT. AS COLDER AIR MOVES SOUTHWARD...RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AND THEN SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. MODELS HAVE COME IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT WHILE A PERIOD OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT...THE PREDOMINANT P-TYPE DURING THIS EVENT WILL BE FROZEN /I.E. SNOW/ AND WITH AMPLE MOISTURE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS /ON TOP OF ICE/ MAY RESULT. WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT EFFECT BEGINNING SUNDAY EVENING/SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE. /BPP A COLD FRONT WILL BE ALIGNED FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY. COLD AIR WILL BE BLASTING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE NOSE OF THE COLD AIR FOCUSING ITS PUSH EAST OF THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY. MID LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL BE ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY TO AID IN MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT. THE GREATEST OVERRUNNING OF MOISTURE AT THE 850MB LEVEL OVER THE SURFACE COLD AIR WILL BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND VIRGINIA PIEDMONT TO THE CENTRAL CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION. ITS IN THIS LARGE REGION THAT THE GREATEST THREAT FOR A SMALL ICE ACCUMULATION TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION. THERE IS MORE OF A THREAT FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND SLEET NORTHWEST OF THIS REGION TO NEAR I-81 AND MORE OF A THREAT FOR ALL SNOW NORTHWEST ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. THE ICE THREAT IN EASTERN VIRGINIA INTO SOUTHERN MARYLAND MONDAY MORNING SHOULD TRANSITION OVER TO MORE OF A SNOW AND SLEET THREAT MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING AS THE BRUNT OF THE COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE AND AT 850MB OVERTAKES ANY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS. IN A NUTSHELL...FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...AND GIVEN POTENTIAL SNOW RATIOS OF 15 TO 1...AN ADDITIONAL 3 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET IN THE NORTHWEST...5 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET IN THE SOUTHEAST WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF ICE...AND AN ADDITIONAL 5 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET IN THE INTERIOR PORTION OF OUR REGION WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE. ALL OF THIS WINTRY MESS SHOULD END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND ENDING ELSEWHERE MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING ENERGY AND SURFACE FRONT...ONLY TO REINFORCE THE ARCTIC AIR OVER A SNOW PACK REGION. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY BUT VERY COLD. THERE COULD BE A FEW UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN PARTS OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLAND WITH ENERGY SLIDING BY TO THE NORTH...BUT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ANOTHER ISSUE WITH THIS MARCH STORM SYSTEM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY COULD OCCUR MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING THEN GRADUALLY FALLING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT TO TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TEENS BY MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTHWEST TO MIDDLE TEENS NEAR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY...WHEN CONSIDERING BOTH COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SNOW PACK...WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING NEARLY EVERYWHERE. TUESDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 IN MOST AREAS. /KLW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Storm is tracking south it looks like. Hopefully there is another shift in the cards or we may miss out. yeah...If it doesn't shift north, me and you only get 8"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Getting slightly worried about the south trend, how much further can it go and will it end up north in the nowcasting like usual? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Mount Holly just updated their snow map. Further updates may be coming based on latest guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 NAM 18z soundings show the warm nose is almost gone at 9z (4am), and completely cold by 12z (7am). Also interesting are the soundings at hour 33 (3z / 10pm EST Sunday night) as the first impulse of moisture comes through. Warm nose, but cold surface already then. We could see a mix with the first impulse that was supposed to be all rain. NAM 18z @ 33 hr: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?sounding.lat=39.1182&sounding.lon=-77.0689&sndclick=y&prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=03&model_dd=01&model_init_hh=18&fhour=33¶meter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=y&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 RGEM @ 48 hours...Better overall than NAM, If storm goes S like the NAM I will go to Cape Map so I'm rooting either way.... Looks like it is about to CRUSH you guys in the next frame... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I'd think you can watch the progress of the cold air tomorrow and have a pretty good idea of how far south or north the heavier precip will be. Just a hunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue sky Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 just waiting for Dt's third guess, second call map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 1, 2014 Author Share Posted March 1, 2014 I'd think you can watch the progress of the cold air tomorrow and have a pretty good idea of how far south or north the heavier precip will be. Just a hunch. I'm worried it will go south. How much farther south can it get? It may go south. If it goes south, then we may only get 5 to 8 inches instead of 8 to 12. Will it go south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 If we are in the 50s tomorrow this thing will be north...if the cold is pressing early and we stay in 30s low 40s then road trip to Virginia Beach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Been working all day in North Carolina, how's it look for the Fredericksburg Spotsylvania, VA area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 1, 2014 Author Share Posted March 1, 2014 RGEM @ 48 hours...Better overall than NAM, If storm goes S like the NAM I will go to Cape Map so I'm rooting either way.... Looks like it is about to CRUSH you guys in the next frame... rgem.gif It goes out to 54 during 6/18z. I just don't know where to find it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I'm worried it will go south. How much farther south can it get? It may go south. If it goes south, then we may only get 5 to 8 inches instead of 8 to 12. Will it go south? This. It would take an epic model fail to get shut out. We're going to get accumulating snow even with a south shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 They're south and not that great...6" for DC They look about the same as last night right? On phone so I don't feel like comparing. Are they even that useful at this point? Useful meaning better than ops and other sr stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Getting slightly worried about the south trend, how much further can it go and will it end up north in the nowcasting like usual? I think it has been covered quite a bit....Nobody is going to be able to give people enough reassurance that it won't keep trending south....I think it worth mentioning that 1/21 shifted north at the last minute....GFS was the only model to stay south.....regardless of the setup, in my experience models shift north at the end...add the fact that models are not going to capture banding that will occur on the northern periphery of the best push....I'm slightly worried too, but there is nothing we can do about it...I still think we are in a good spot...we may not get the max, but 4"+ is still a nice snowfall...not everyone can always be jackpotted (except Philly) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I'm worried it will go south. How much farther south can it get? It may go south. If it goes south, then we may only get 5 to 8 inches instead of 8 to 12. Will it go south? Not cool. I'm not one of these wringing my hands over whether it goes south or not. I was just making an observation that the boundary seems to be the focus for the heavier precip. Guess I was being a "taker" with my post. Jeez Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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