ravensrule Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I would argue that Tommy T and his RPM model are the most conservative. You are splitting hairs and may be correct but them going that high is shocking. Channel 11 went 5-10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 No they absolutely cannot. I'm a bit embarrassed at my posts calling the ggem/rgem jv models this year. I clearly should have just stfu. Cras is still jv though. Maybe rec league. What do you think of the GGEM and UKIE tonight? They look like good hits to me... like the RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hokierulz98 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I live near Richmond and even though I want the 0z NAM to be right I am 90% sure the 0z RGEM will end up being right. The RGEM has been so money this year I would not bet against it. Plus, Richmond always gets screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Really nice to see the RGEM, GGEM, and UKMET looking good along with what the 00z GFS did tonight. Other than the NAM things are looking solid south of the M/D line and even just north as well at least for 4-6+ around the border. Gladly will have my numbers from earlier off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 2, 2014 Author Share Posted March 2, 2014 Yeah, GGEm is really nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 What do you think of the GGEM and UKIE tonight? They look like good hits to me... like the RGEM Not sure about the ukie but having the ggem/rgem on our side is a big net+. I barely look at the ukie so I can't add anything of value there. Gfs was fine. If the euro ends the south trend paranoia then we are just about locked for a nice event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Good post....thanks for explaining in more detail as I'm a weenie and learning as I go along. I agree on the PV issue completely and how it affects the run downstream - NAM could be overdoing it especially after seeing the RGEM. It seems like in the complicated setups this winter, RGEM has performed well. I'd love for that to continue here. Not to beat a dead horse, but the 0z Euro will be this winter's most important run probably. No problem. I'm learning everyday myself and going to school for it as we speak. I've talked to Eric Horst who operates out of Millersville University, and he said this storm was going to give plenty of headaches going into Sunday morning, and he was very correct on that statement. Models during split flow patterns have a very difficult time analyzing timing regimes with important features. The winter of 09-10 was an anomaly because it was pretty much a similar pattern of one main jet structure and the models basically could nail a storm 3-5 days out and hang on with minor fluctuations. This type of storm is a headache of all sorts. You have so much energy rippling out ahead of the main area of low pressure out west tacked on to a PV sitting over eastern Canada that basically controls the weather for the northern half of the nation, this is what causes model and forecaster headaches. The best thing to do is just sit back and take each run one at a time and not micro analyze every single nuance. I am truly grateful to read guys like Matt, Ian, Bob, Wes, HM and the know because they can pretty much dissect a model in record time and can pick out all the subtleties as the run is progressing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 GGEM is really held serve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Wow, GGEM is a crush job.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 You are splitting hairs and may be correct but them going that high is shocking. Channel 11 went 5-10" Oh, I know. 8-12 is really high for WJZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 No output from the RPM, sorry. Its just another WRF! https://ams.confex.com/ams/37Broadcast/techprogram/paper_153646.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Sorry for the crappy quality, but I just took a pic with my phone of Tony Pann's forecast on WBAL11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 What do you think of the GGEM and UKIE tonight? They look like good hits to me... like the RGEM Looks like we flip around 3am (?), just going by the 850s so its an approximation (+1 at 1a to -5 at 7a). 0.4" falls between 1a and 7a. ~0.4" falls after 7a. Looks like a good hit to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 GGEM is really held serve Lol nam isn't going to be right so far South. It's gonna hammer Rochester at 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 GGEM is like the euro with the earlier flip....model does look goofy.....should be wetter I think....but it is probably a 7-8" event for DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Looks like we flip around 3am (?), just going by the 850s so its an approximation (+1 at 1a to -5 at 7a). 0.4" falls between 1a and 7a. ~0.4" falls after 7a. Looks like a good hit to me. It's huge. After 06z everything is frozen, 90% of it snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 GGEM is like the euro with the earlier flip....model does look goofy.....should be wetter I think....but it is probably a 7-8" event for DC It has been weird on its QPF depiction for this system. Good placement of the QPF for a really nice run. Just using RGEM/GGEM blend for that one. 6-10 for DC based on those 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Looks like we flip around 3am (?), just going by the 850s so its an approximation (+1 at 1a to -5 at 7a). 0.4" falls between 1a and 7a. ~0.4" falls after 7a. Looks like a good hit to me. GGEM to me looks like around 0.6" snow for DC....with a flip around 2-3am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 GGEM to me looks like around 0.6" snow for DC....with a flip around 2-3am That makes sense given the QPF distro and the flip time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I see the excitement about the Canadian models. In the frame below, the region seems to be targeted by a javelin thrower and that moisture javelin aimed at our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 HPC going with a combo of the 00Z GFS and 12Z Euro... ...SOUTHERN STREAM TROF TRAVERSING THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...SHEARING TOWARD THE EAST COAST... ...SURFACE LOWS DEVELOPING ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT IN THE SOUTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC... PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE THE 00Z NAM HAS CONTINUED TO TREND SLOWER...STRONGER AND LESS SHEARED WITH THE SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE AS IT REACHES THE MS VLY MON MORNING...WHICH IS AROUND THE TIME MODEL BEGIN TO SHOW DIFFERENCES. THE 00Z NAM IS THE SLOWEST SOLN...WITH THE 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS BECOMING THE FASTEST. THE 12Z GEM GLOBAL AND 12Z UKMET ARE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE GFS/ECMWF CAMP. AT THE SFC...THIS ENERGY WILL BE INTERACTING WITH AN ARCTIC FRONTAL ZONE THAT WILL BE DRAPING FROM AS FAR SOUTH AS THE LWR MS VLY NEWD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION SUN THROUGH MON. AN INITIAL LOW CENTER IS AGAIN SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS TO DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS ON SUN ACROSS THE CNTRL MID-ATLANTIC AND THEN LIFT NEWD WELL EAST OF NEW ENGLAND SUN NIGHT. OVERALL THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS WAVE...ALTHOUGH SOME MINOR DEPTH ISSUES WERE NOTED OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND AS THE NAM BECOMES THE STRONGEST WITH THIS LEAD LOW CENTER. THE MODELS THOUGH INDICATE THE CORE OF UPSTREAM SRN STREAM ENERGY FOSTERING A SECOND LOW DEVELOPING SUN NIGHT OVER THE LWR TN VLY AND THEN CROSSING INTO THE SRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION EARLY MON WITH A TRACK THAT MOST OF THE MODELS SUGGEST WILL BE NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER BEFORE THEN SHIFTING EAST AND OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST MON NIGHT. THE ALL THE WHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED ARCTIC FRONTAL ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTH AND CROSS DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL PLAIN MON EVENING. THE 12Z UKMET APPEARS TO HAVE THE SECOND SFC LOW CENTER A LITTLE NORTH OF THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS ALONG WITH THE FRONT. THE 00Z NAM/00Z GFS SOLNS AND 12Z ECMWF/12Z GEM GLOBAL SOLNS CLUSTER RATHER WELL TOGETHER. HOWEVER...BASED ON BETTER RUN TO RUN MODEL CONTINUITY AND SUPPORT FROM THE LATEST GEFS MEAN AND ECENS MEAN...WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A GFS/ECMWF BLEND Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I'm eagerly awaiting the 00z EURO. It would be a big statement if it holds to its 12Z solution. Hope to see the NAM as the outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Just looked at the sref plumes for DCA, which can be of some use at this range, and they are fairly tightly clustered between 8-13" snow, the mean being about 9". Also has temps in the low 20s at DCA by 7AM Monday and at 0F by 7AM Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 A little ot but look ar this ao graph: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml And then line up snowfalls since Jan 1. Our ku was timed during a drop but still positive ao. But we've managed to score in every -ao period since Jan 1. And look where we are now.... I know a -ao isn't required and we can also torch during a -ao (ala last Dec 2012) but this year really drives home the significance that Wes has discussed so many times in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Sorry for the crappy quality, but I just took a pic with my phone of Tony Pann's forecast on WBAL11 Pann_11.png Looks model derived. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 A little ot but look ar this ao graph: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml And then line up snowfalls since Jan 1. Our ku was timed during a drop but still positive ao. But we've managed to score in every -ao period since Jan 1. And look where we are now.... I know a -ao isn't required and we can also torch during a -ao (ala last Dec 2012) but this year really drives home the significance that Wes has discussed so many times in the past. Yep....wes said -ao most important thing for dc snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 The GEFS looks really nice....I know we are close in....supports the earlier flip time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Yep....wes said -ao most important thing for dc snow It's pretty cool this year with how stark the timed dips are. It's been an on off button of sorts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Just looked at the sref plumes for DCA, which can be of some use at this range, and they are fairly tightly clustered between 8-13" snow, the mean being about 9". Also has temps in the low 20s at DCA by 7AM Monday and at 0F by 7AM Tuesday. Now that the srefs are on Board I'm in. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 The GEFS looks really nice....I know we are close in....supports the earlier flip time Looks like a lil more QPF than the OP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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