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March 2-3 Disco, Part III


stormtracker

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No they absolutely cannot. I'm a bit embarrassed at my posts calling the ggem/rgem jv models this year. I clearly should have just stfu.

Cras is still jv though. Maybe rec league.

 

What do you think of the GGEM and UKIE tonight?  They look like good hits to me... like the RGEM

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What do you think of the GGEM and UKIE tonight? They look like good hits to me... like the RGEM

Not sure about the ukie but having the ggem/rgem on our side is a big net+. I barely look at the ukie so I can't add anything of value there.

Gfs was fine. If the euro ends the south trend paranoia then we are just about locked for a nice event.

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Good post....thanks for explaining in more detail as I'm a weenie and learning as I go along.  I agree on the PV issue completely and how it affects the run downstream - NAM could be overdoing it especially after seeing the RGEM.  It seems like in the complicated setups this winter, RGEM has performed well.  I'd love for that to continue here.  Not to beat a dead horse, but the 0z Euro will be this winter's most important run probably. ;)

 

No problem. I'm learning everyday myself and going to school for it as we speak. I've talked to Eric Horst who operates out of Millersville University, and he said this storm was going to give plenty of headaches going into Sunday morning, and he was very correct on that statement. Models during split flow patterns have a very difficult time analyzing timing regimes with important features. The winter of 09-10 was an anomaly because it was pretty much a similar pattern of one main jet structure and the models basically could nail a storm 3-5 days out and hang on with minor fluctuations. This type of storm is a headache of all sorts. You have so much energy rippling out ahead of the main area of low pressure out west tacked on to a PV sitting over eastern Canada that basically controls the weather for the northern half of the nation, this is what causes model and forecaster headaches. The best thing to do is just sit back and take each run one at a time and not micro analyze every single nuance. I am truly grateful to read guys like Matt, Ian, Bob, Wes, HM and the know because they can pretty much dissect a model in record time and can pick out all the subtleties as the run is progressing.    

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What do you think of the GGEM and UKIE tonight?  They look like good hits to me... like the RGEM

 

Looks like we flip around 3am (?), just going by the 850s so its an approximation (+1 at 1a to -5 at 7a).  0.4" falls between 1a and 7a.  ~0.4" falls after 7a.  Looks like a good hit to me.  

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GGEM is like the euro with the earlier flip....model does look goofy.....should be wetter I think....but it is probably a 7-8" event for DC

It has been weird on its QPF depiction for this system. Good placement of the QPF for a really nice run. Just using RGEM/GGEM blend for that one. 6-10 for DC based on those 2. 

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Looks like we flip around 3am (?), just going by the 850s so its an approximation (+1 at 1a to -5 at 7a).  0.4" falls between 1a and 7a.  ~0.4" falls after 7a.  Looks like a good hit to me.  

 

GGEM to me looks like around 0.6" snow for DC....with a flip around 2-3am

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HPC going with a combo of the 00Z GFS and 12Z Euro...

...SOUTHERN STREAM TROF TRAVERSING THE FOUR CORNERS

REGION...SHEARING TOWARD THE EAST COAST...

...SURFACE LOWS DEVELOPING ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT IN THE

SOUTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC...

PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

THE 00Z NAM HAS CONTINUED TO TREND SLOWER...STRONGER AND LESS

SHEARED WITH THE SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE AS IT REACHES THE MS VLY MON

MORNING...WHICH IS AROUND THE TIME MODEL BEGIN TO SHOW

DIFFERENCES. THE 00Z NAM IS THE SLOWEST SOLN...WITH THE 12Z ECMWF

AND 00Z GFS BECOMING THE FASTEST. THE 12Z GEM GLOBAL AND 12Z UKMET

ARE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE GFS/ECMWF CAMP. AT THE SFC...THIS

ENERGY WILL BE INTERACTING WITH AN ARCTIC FRONTAL ZONE THAT WILL

BE DRAPING FROM AS FAR SOUTH AS THE LWR MS VLY NEWD INTO THE

MID-ATLANTIC REGION SUN THROUGH MON.

AN INITIAL LOW CENTER IS AGAIN SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS TO DEVELOP

IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS ON SUN ACROSS THE CNTRL

MID-ATLANTIC AND THEN LIFT NEWD WELL EAST OF NEW ENGLAND SUN

NIGHT. OVERALL THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND TRACK

OF THIS WAVE...ALTHOUGH SOME MINOR DEPTH ISSUES WERE NOTED

OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND AS THE NAM BECOMES THE STRONGEST WITH THIS

LEAD LOW CENTER. THE MODELS THOUGH INDICATE THE CORE OF UPSTREAM

SRN STREAM ENERGY FOSTERING A SECOND LOW DEVELOPING SUN NIGHT OVER

THE LWR TN VLY AND THEN CROSSING INTO THE SRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION

EARLY MON WITH A TRACK THAT MOST OF THE MODELS SUGGEST WILL BE

NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER BEFORE THEN SHIFTING EAST AND OFFSHORE THE

EAST COAST MON NIGHT. THE ALL THE WHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED

ARCTIC FRONTAL ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTH AND CROSS DOWN

INTO THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL PLAIN MON EVENING. THE 12Z UKMET

APPEARS TO HAVE THE SECOND SFC LOW CENTER A LITTLE NORTH OF THE

GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS ALONG WITH THE FRONT. THE 00Z NAM/00Z GFS

SOLNS AND 12Z ECMWF/12Z GEM GLOBAL SOLNS CLUSTER RATHER WELL

TOGETHER. HOWEVER...BASED ON BETTER RUN TO RUN MODEL CONTINUITY

AND SUPPORT FROM THE LATEST GEFS MEAN AND ECENS MEAN...WILL

CONTINUE TO FAVOR A GFS/ECMWF BLEND

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A little ot but look ar this ao graph:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml

And then line up snowfalls since Jan 1. Our ku was timed during a drop but still positive ao. But we've managed to score in every -ao period since Jan 1. And look where we are now....

I know a -ao isn't required and we can also torch during a -ao (ala last Dec 2012) but this year really drives home the significance that Wes has discussed so many times in the past.

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A little ot but look ar this ao graph:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml

And then line up snowfalls since Jan 1. Our ku was timed during a drop but still positive ao. But we've managed to score in every -ao period since Jan 1. And look where we are now....

I know a -ao isn't required and we can also torch during a -ao (ala last Dec 2012) but this year really drives home the significance that Wes has discussed so many times in the past.

Yep....wes said -ao most important thing for dc snow

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Just looked at the sref plumes for DCA, which can be of some use at this range, and they are fairly tightly clustered between 8-13" snow, the mean being about 9". Also has temps in the low 20s at DCA by 7AM Monday and at 0F by 7AM Tuesday.

Now that the srefs are on Board I'm in.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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