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March 2-3 Disco, Part III


stormtracker

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I'm just happy that a model with a se bias is not terribly suppressed.....that's a pretty good sign to me....it isnt very often the GFS is too far north at this range

 

That's a good point actually.  Even though GFS isn't a mesoscale model, key takeaway for me is it didn't shift south this run.

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The NAM tends to do some absurd things...hopefully this is one of those times....NAM isnt that different than the GFS for me and you, but certainly we want some more room to breathe than the NAM gives us...plus the south trend....GFS holding serve and maybe ticking north a tad is a good sign to me....I've never worried about the GFS being too far north and I am not going to start now..

Don't you think the span of accumulations has shown its face now...4-10" it's a wide range sure but I think 4" is the low end on this...IMO

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The NAM in the last 4 runs has really had us suffering whiplash.  Its 06Z run looked almost too far north, and too warm for too long at the mid-levels before all snow.  Then the 12Z cycle was great.  18Z hedged south more, and now of course 00Z even more so.  Not sure quite what to make of it, whether it's overdoing suppression all of a sudden...or not.  Yet the 00Z RGem kind of held serve, as did the 00ZGFS, and the 21Z SREF mean looked good as well (whatever it's worth).  If only that gradient weren't so darned sharp in the NAM!

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I was sold with the 1/21 event. It was complicated too. The rgem was outstanding with the unusual precip stripes overall. It woke me up

The old standard of beating up some of these other models is fading away. These things have skill now and cannot be tossed aside.

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I was sold with the 1/21 event. It was complicated too. The rgem was outstanding with the unusual precip stripes overall. It woke me up

 

1/21 is giving me some solace...the fact that the Euro and NAM took those big north jogs at the end...i know not all events are equal...the models will handle some better than others....but the north jog is as real as the dc split ;)

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I'd caveat that with GFS isn't a mesoscale model though.  I would think at this range, we should put more focus on Euro/RGEM/NAM.  NAM could be overdoing it with its southern solution but I don't think we can definitely say GFS has a better handle on it.  

 

I agree with you on the fact the GFS is not as good in determining mesoscale features like the NAM due to its lower resolution. I do however think the GFS might see larger features like the PV and low pressure orientation for the two waves. The NAM because of it being a mesoscale model can overdue certain areas that cause a rippling effect further into the run. If the model sees the PV influence a bit stronger, it snowballs into what we say on the 0z run. After seeing the GFS and RGEM come in the way they have with better precip shields to the north and not a sheared out mess with maxima off to DC's south like the NAM had. The run to run consistency by the RGEM has been quite pleasant to see and should be comforting for the Mid-Atlantic area. I just think the NAM is placing way to much emphasis on the PV. A shift of 50 miles north basically crushes all of MD even up into southern PA. Those intricate details are very important in this type of set up. Split flow patterns tend to be the toughest to forecast in general. This winter has been no different 

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I agree with you on the fact the GFS is not as good in determining mesoscale features like the NAM due to its lower resolution. I do however think the GFS might see larger features like the PV and low pressure orientation for the two waves. The NAM because of it being a mesoscale model can overdue certain areas that cause a rippling effect further into the run. If the model sees the PV influence a bit stronger, it snowballs into what we say on the 0z run. After seeing the GFS and RGEM come in the way they have with better precip shields to the north and not a sheared out mess with maxima off to DC's south like the NAM had. The run to run consistency by the RGEM has been quite pleasant to see and should be comforting for the Mid-Atlantic area. I just think the NAM is placing way to much emphasis on the PV. A shift of 50 miles north basically crushes all of MD even up into southern PA. Those intricate details are very important in this type of set up. Split flow patterns tend to be the toughest to forecast in general. This winter has been no different 

 

Of course, this is just my opinion. I'll take any good constructed criticism if anyone has any

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1/21 is giving me some solace...the fact that the Euro and NAM took those big north jogs at the end...i know not all events are equal...the models will handle some better than others....but the north jog is as real as the dc split ;)

It did a really good job with the ull stuff on 2/12-13 in our area iirc.

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Watch us torch into the 70's tomorrow and this thing goes way north....

Never underestimate the DC torch. I am willing to bet I hit 60 tomorrow.

 

That's the one Ace in the back pocket for the argument of the N trend. Raw model output all this week and last has biased cold with low level temps east of the Apps. Just ask the 700 nationwide college meteorology students who tried to forecast for Baltimore last week.

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Don't you think the span of accumulations has shown its face now...4-10" it's a wide range sure but I think 4" is the low end on this...IMO

 

earlier today on FB as you saw, I said a true southern bust would probably be a 3-6" event for DC....I'll stick with that.....I think that is a good low range....i got 4.5" on around 0.33" with a warm start....I think if we can get 0.5" in here after 4am, we should be good for 6" here in DC, and prob more by you.....GFS/NAM gives me around that if I blend them....

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That's the one Ace in the back pocket for the argument of the N trend. Raw model output all this week and last has biased cold with low level temps east of the Apps. Just ask the 700 nationwide college meteorology students who tried to forecast for Baltimore last week.

 

I went higher every single day than guidance by like 2-4 degrees and I'm sitting in top 40. You are 100% right on there

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I agree with you on the fact the GFS is not as good in determining mesoscale features like the NAM due to its lower resolution. I do however think the GFS might see larger features like the PV and low pressure orientation for the two waves. The NAM because of it being a mesoscale model can overdue certain areas that cause a rippling effect further into the run. If the model sees the PV influence a bit stronger, it snowballs into what we say on the 0z run. After seeing the GFS and RGEM come in the way they have with better precip shields to the north and not a sheared out mess with maxima off to DC's south like the NAM had. The run to run consistency by the RGEM has been quite pleasant to see and should be comforting for the Mid-Atlantic area. I just think the NAM is placing way to much emphasis on the PV. A shift of 50 miles north basically crushes all of MD even up into southern PA. Those intricate details are very important in this type of set up. Split flow patterns tend to be the toughest to forecast in general. This winter has been no different 

 

Good post....thanks for explaining in more detail as I'm a weenie and learning as I go along.  I agree on the PV issue completely and how it affects the run downstream - NAM could be overdoing it especially after seeing the RGEM.  It seems like in the complicated setups this winter, RGEM has performed well.  I'd love for that to continue here.  Not to beat a dead horse, but the 0z Euro will be this winter's most important run probably. ;)

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The old standard of beating up some of these other models is fading away. These things have skill now and cannot be tossed aside.

No they absolutely cannot. I'm a bit embarrassed at my posts calling the ggem/rgem jv models this year. I clearly should have just stfu.

Cras is still jv though. Maybe rec league.

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This is my one and only post. Then back to obsessively lurking.

I'm with this guy. I will be standing in the garden with my shirt off enjoying the (hopefully) warm air. I never thought I would say that before a snowstorm.

lol! this is exactly what I have been planning to do on Sunday ever since I read that warmer temps might help the storm tick north. The neighbors already think I'm kinda nuts-so I have nothing to lose  :rolleyes:

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