olafminesaw Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Despite my comment being rather useless, I would like to point out that the gfs can be wrongly stubborn on a particular solution (see Valentines day storm) so I think we should wait till the Euro to step away from the edge. I think that there is a slight chance that it might be devastating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Might of even come a tiny smidge N from 18z. I think the RGEM and GFS have a much better handle at this point. That was nice run. The precip shield looked north of 18z's. I have no idea what the NAM was doing that run. Maybe DT hacked into it to give Richmond more snow. Idk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Maybe zwyts was psychically streaming the GFS in his NAM pbp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 The most comforting is the consistency of 1" qpf for most of us city/burb folks. It keeps coming and I like sleet too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Despite my comment being rather useless, I would like to point out that the gfs can be wrongly stubborn on a particular solution (see Valentines day storm) so I think we should wait till the Euro to step away from the edge. I think that there is a slight chance that it might be devastating. also true for any of the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 The most comforting is the consistency of 1" qpf for most of us city/burb folks. It keeps coming and I like sleet too. I'm with you there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I only stopped on the bay bridge to check my tire. Nothing to see here people. I'm back in the car lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Might of even come a tiny smidge N from 18z. it is a better run for DC than 18z for sure...but it really isnt appreciably different than the NAM down here in terms of actual result...GFS is maybe 0.10" more snow....NAM is maybe 5", and GFS - 6".......so at least IMBY it isnt some massive difference...GFS actually flips an hour later probably Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 So, we're hoping to bust high on temps tomorrow? We got this in the bag... I'm pretty sure MD always ends up on the warmer side, but I could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 The most comforting is the consistency of 1" qpf for most of us city/burb folks. It keeps coming and I like sleet too. The only ones really panicking are the youngens who thought this was gonna be a foot + those of us who have been on the 3-6" 4-8" train are in a good spot emotionally. I'm sure Ji is happy the trend went south since 4" would be a disaster to him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I think the RGEM and GFS have a much better handle at this point. That was nice run. The precip shield looked north of 18z's. I have no idea what the NAM was doing that run. Maybe DT hacked into it to give Richmond more snow. Idk I'd caveat that with GFS isn't a mesoscale model though. I would think at this range, we should put more focus on Euro/RGEM/NAM. NAM could be overdoing it with its southern solution but I don't think we can definitely say GFS has a better handle on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Despite my comment being rather useless, I would like to point out that the gfs can be wrongly stubborn on a particular solution (see Valentines day storm) so I think we should wait till the Euro to step away from the edge. I think that there is a slight chance that it might be devastating. There's sure some validity to this, if it's true that a particular model is "entrenched" in a wrong solution (won't know until the event happens). The difference with the big February storm is that the GFS was "stubbornly" much drier than literally every other piece of guidance until it was game time, then it came around. The NAM/Euro/Canadian/UKMet/RGem (heck, I think even the JMA) were hammering us the night of Feb. 12, while the GFS was far lighter. In this case, the GFS is not an outlier with the other globals, in fact it's right in line with them. So it's not necessarily right to point a finger at the GFS in this case because it was way off on Feb. 12-13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I'd caveat that with GFS isn't a mesoscale model though. I would think at this range, we should put more focus on Euro/RGEM/NAM. NAM could be overdoing it with its southern solution but I don't think we can definitely say GFS has a better handle on it. That was certainly my thinking before the 0z suite, but now that the NAM looks crappy I am going back to hoping it is reverting back to its old bad self Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 The only ones really panicking are the you gens who thought this was gonna be a foot + those of us who have been on the 3-6" 4-8" train are in a good spot emotionally. I'm sure Ji is happy the trend went south since 4" would be a disaster to him We've been at this a long time. You much longer than me. Latching onto the big runs is recipe for calling a hotline. I've felt pretty good about 4-6" since the good runs started. Yea, I want the hammer like everyone else but setting a bar there ruins the fun of an otherwise enjoyable event. I'm too easy going not to enjoy accum snow and cold temps any time my yard is graced with the presence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I'd caveat that with GFS isn't a mesoscale model though. I would think at this range, we should put more focus on Euro/RGEM/NAM. NAM could be overdoing it with its southern solution but I don't think we can definitely say GFS has a better handle on it. This may be a weenie-ism (weenie rule #126 or something, haha!), but does the NAM have a tendency to really have sharp gradients much of the time? I'm trying to think back to other events over the last few years. I'm sort of asking in all honesty here, because I don't know if it has a tendency to overdo that...or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 The 60* call for tomorrow I never agreed with and I think all that is showing up is the fact that it's colder in central and northern Maryland tomorrow, so a push further south, but that's not the air that will do it for us anyway. Really going to be special to watch the cold air collaborate with the precip. I am not seeing any real strong high pressure that can get over top the low and push it south, they kinda just work in tandem and blend instead. Tonight's runs do not worry me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 There's sure some validity to this, if it's true that a particular model is "entrenched" in a wrong solution (won't know until the event happens). The difference with the big February storm is that the GFS was "stubbornly" much drier than literally every other piece of guidance until it was game time, then it came around. The NAM/Euro/Canadian/UKMet/RGem (heck, I think even the JMA) were hammering us the night of Feb. 12, while the GFS was far lighter. In this case, the GFS is not an outlier with the other globals, in fact it's right in line with them. So it's not necessarily right to point a finger at the GFS in this case because it was way off on Feb. 12-13. I'm just happy that a model with a se bias is not terribly suppressed.....that's a pretty good sign to me....it isnt very often the GFS is too far north at this range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I'd caveat that with GFS isn't a mesoscale model though. I would think at this range, we should put more focus on Euro/RGEM/NAM. NAM could be overdoing it with its southern solution but I don't think we can definitely say GFS has a better handle on it. I like the Euro at this point also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 This may be a weenie-ism (weenie rule #126 or something, haha!), but does the NAM have a tendency to really have sharp gradients much of the time? I'm trying to think back to other events over the last few years. I'm sort of asking in all honesty here, because I don't know if it has a tendency to overdo that...or not. With arctic air streaming in like this it would make logical sense that the NAM would be right in it's sharp gradient thinking. Always an important factor in downscaling a global like the GFS. Edit: I'd like to see the Euro's thinking as it is both a global and medium resolution model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 That was certainly my thinking before the 0z suite, but now that the NAM looks crappy I am going back to hoping it is reverting back to its old bad self That's what I'm hoping too...it may be overdoing the PV but who knows right now. I like the fact that the RGEM stayed the course from 18z or actually even slightly improved. tonight's Euro run is uber important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 We've been at this a long time. You much longer than me. Latching onto the big runs is recipe for calling a hotline. I've felt pretty good about 4-6" since the good runs started. Yea, I want the hammer like everyone else but setting a bar there ruins the fun of an otherwise enjoyable event. I'm too easy going not to enjoy accum snow and cold temps any time my yard is graced with the presence Yeah, I've been kind of thinking the same thing more or less. Though perhaps the optimist in me might say I felt good about a tad more, like 4-8" area wide (the weenie side says 6-10"!). Not that long ago, we were discussing the likelihood of a severe ice event topped with a couple or three inches of snow. That said, the NAM's south drift has been aggravating to see, I admit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Someone once said use the nam for thermal profiles and the gfs for precip if those are the two you're using...ultimately the euro precip is best....I'm running with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 That was certainly my thinking before the 0z suite, but now that the NAM looks crappy I am going back to hoping it is reverting back to its old bad self If I was forced to choose between a short range meso model between the nam and rgem I would hedge the rgem. It's a new thing for me this year too. The rgem has been really good for better or worse. I glanced at it last year bit this year changed my mind. Some of the nam discomfort is soothed with the corresponding rgem run for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 There's sure some validity to this, if it's true that a particular model is "entrenched" in a wrong solution (won't know until the event happens). The difference with the big February storm is that the GFS was "stubbornly" much drier than literally every other piece of guidance until it was game time, then it came around. The NAM/Euro/Canadian/UKMet/RGem (heck, I think even the JMA) were hammering us the night of Feb. 12, while the GFS was far lighter. In this case, the GFS is not an outlier with the other globals, in fact it's right in line with them. So it's not necessarily right to point a finger at the GFS in this case because it was way off on Feb. 12-13. I think the GFS has a flat/progressive tendency, if anything. I've never seen it over-amplify anything. Obviously if the RGEM had gone the way of the NAM, I think there'd be more concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 We've been at this a long time. You much longer than me. Latching onto the big runs is recipe for calling a hotline. I've felt pretty good about 4-6" since the good runs started. Yea, I want the hammer like everyone else but setting a bar there ruins the fun of an otherwise enjoyable event. I'm too easy going not to enjoy accum snow and cold temps any time my yard is graced with the presence People need to realize it just weather, models aren't perfect and most of us are at or above climo. Why freak when even a nice 4" event is noteworthy in March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 This may be a weenie-ism (weenie rule #126 or something, haha!), but does the NAM have a tendency to really have sharp gradients much of the time? I'm trying to think back to other events over the last few years. I'm sort of asking in all honesty here, because I don't know if it has a tendency to overdo that...or not. Good question, I'm not sure actually! The sharp gradient makes sense given the air mass pushing down...it just hinges on where that sharp gradient sets up I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 With arctic air streaming in like this it would make logical sense that the NAM would be right in it's sharp gradient thinking. Always an important factor in downscaling a global like the GFS. Thanks...kind of what I suspected given the very cold air mass heading in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 If I was forced to choose between a short range meso model between the nam and rgem I would hedge the rgem. It's a new thing for me this year too. The rgem has been really good for better or worse. I glanced at it last year bit this year changed my mind. Some of the nam discomfort is soothed with the corresponding rgem run for sure RGEM has performed remarkably this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 UKMET looks like a nice hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 If I was forced to choose between a short range meso model between the nam and rgem I would hedge the rgem. It's a new thing for me this year too. The rgem has been really good for better or worse. I glanced at it last year bit this year changed my mind. Some of the nam discomfort is soothed with the corresponding rgem run for sure The NAM tends to do some absurd things...hopefully this is one of those times....NAM isnt that different than the GFS for me and you, but certainly we want some more room to breathe than the NAM gives us...plus the south trend....GFS holding serve and maybe ticking north a tad is a good sign to me....I've never worried about the GFS being too far north and I am not going to start now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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