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March 2-3 Disco, Part III


stormtracker

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FWIW, 1z RAP has DC getting into the low 60s tomorrow.  Huge temp gradient between central MD and DC.  It's at the end of its range so I'll be curious how this evolves over future runs.  If RAP ends up right on the temps tomorrow, it'd suggest tonight's NAM was overdoing the PV.  We'll see how the rest of the 0z suite evolves.

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I've seen the NAM jump significantly within 30hrs. I think the fact that it has yet to show any run-to-run stability suggests the opposite.

The last 2 runs were not that big of a shift. My point though wasn't to tell anyone to hug the nam just that it definitely should not be tossed now. It did a damn good job with 2/12.Might have been the best performer inside of hr60

Eta: and I damn sure hope it did a bunch of bong hits tonight

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Here is the meteogram for DCA per 00z RGEM -- http://meteocentre.com/models/get_mgram.php?stn=Washington&mod=gemreg&run=00&var=prcp&lang=en&map=us

 

20-21mm SN with 2-3mm IP... very nice

 

For those metric challenged -- 20mm is ~0.80" QPF

Damn, RGEM is even better than it's 18z run it looks like

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FWIW, 1z RAP has DC getting into the low 60s tomorrow.  Huge temp gradient between central MD and DC.  It's at the end of its range so I'll be curious how this evolves over future runs.  If RAP ends up right on the temps tomorrow, it'd suggest tonight's NAM was overdoing the PV.  We'll see how the rest of the 0z suite evolves.

I've decided we want it to be warmish tomorrow. The bad runs have the cold crash too quick.

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The last 2 runs were not that big of a shift. My point though wasn't to tell anyone to hug the nam just that it definitely should not be tossed now. It did a damn good job with 2/12.Might have been the best performer inside of hr60

Eta: and I damn sure hope it did a bunch of bong hits tonight

Agreed there's no reason to toss it, and I appreciate your posts. If the GFS and/or Euro/GGEM follow suit, I'll be less skeptical.

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