Interstate Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Well, RGEM should stabilize the jumpers for a while for 40 minutes or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Wow, Baltimore's changeover between 7/8z and its looking like SN+ via the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Stark difference between the NAM and RGEM. Seems like we've been having model battles all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Wow, Baltimore's changeover between 7/8z and its looking like SN+ via the RGEM. That ice looks nasty in Tennessee! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 00z RGEM is 24mm of QPF after 06z when 2mT and 850s are both below 0 at DCA... most should be snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 The moneyshot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 00z RGEM is 24mm of QPF after 06z when 2mT and 850s are both below 0 at DCA... most should be snow? Pretty close, its a sick run for DC and Baltimore. DC gets like 8-12" this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 FWIW, 1z RAP has DC getting into the low 60s tomorrow. Huge temp gradient between central MD and DC. It's at the end of its range so I'll be curious how this evolves over future runs. If RAP ends up right on the temps tomorrow, it'd suggest tonight's NAM was overdoing the PV. We'll see how the rest of the 0z suite evolves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 2, 2014 Author Share Posted March 2, 2014 00z RGEM is 24mm of QPF after 06z when 2mT and 850s are both below 0 at DCA... most should be snow? wait...an inch of qpf AFTER the changeover? (maybe some lost to sleet) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Not counting the light blue shading on the RGEM, which is mostly flurries, it keeps us in the snow through h42-43. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 wait...an inch of qpf AFTER the changeover? (maybe some lost to sleet) Yeah Randy, its a great run overall. Better than the 18z RGEM to boot IIRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 wait...an inch of qpf AFTER the changeover? (maybe some lost to sleet) Here is the meteogram for DCA per 00z RGEM -- http://meteocentre.com/models/get_mgram.php?stn=Washington&mod=gemreg&run=00&var=prcp〈=en&map=us 20-21mm SN with 2-3mm IP... very nice For those metric challenged -- 20mm is ~0.80" QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 RGEM is pretty far north compared to the NAM. Let's hope GFS is north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 wait...an inch of qpf AFTER the changeover? (maybe some lost to sleet) 24mm is roughly .9 inches qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I've seen the NAM jump significantly within 30hrs. I think the fact that it has yet to show any run-to-run stability suggests the opposite.The last 2 runs were not that big of a shift. My point though wasn't to tell anyone to hug the nam just that it definitely should not be tossed now. It did a damn good job with 2/12.Might have been the best performer inside of hr60Eta: and I damn sure hope it did a bunch of bong hits tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 wait...an inch of qpf AFTER the changeover? (maybe some lost to sleet) Yup looks close to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 So far on the 00z suite: 21z SREFs/00z RGEM -- great for all 00z NAM -- great for south of DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 2, 2014 Author Share Posted March 2, 2014 Here is the meteogram for DCA per 00z RGEM -- http://meteocentre.com/models/get_mgram.php?stn=Washington&mod=gemreg&run=00&var=prcp&lang=en&map=us 20-21mm SN with 2-3mm IP... very nice For those metric challenged -- 20mm is ~0.80" QPF Damn, RGEM is even better than it's 18z run it looks like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 RGEM has been remarkably consistent over the last three runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 NAM gives me snowhole. RGEM gives me 9 inches. The hilarity continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 FWIW, 1z RAP has DC getting into the low 60s tomorrow. Huge temp gradient between central MD and DC. It's at the end of its range so I'll be curious how this evolves over future runs. If RAP ends up right on the temps tomorrow, it'd suggest tonight's NAM was overdoing the PV. We'll see how the rest of the 0z suite evolves. I've decided we want it to be warmish tomorrow. The bad runs have the cold crash too quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Canada knows Canadian air better than the United States ....that's my contribution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I've decided we want it to be warmish tomorrow. The bad runs have the cold crash too quick. Exactly Ian. Was talking to a friend about that, we need to get a bit warm as signs of higher heights and a storm likely to come a bit more north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I'm officially a huge fan of molsen and canucks Nice to see the rgem hold. It has been good this year. A blend of the nam and rgem is a great solution too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 The last 2 runs were not that big of a shift. My point though wasn't to tell anyone to hug the nam just that it definitely should not be tossed now. It did a damn good job with 2/12.Might have been the best performer inside of hr60 Eta: and I damn sure hope it did a bunch of bong hits tonight Agreed there's no reason to toss it, and I appreciate your posts. If the GFS and/or Euro/GGEM follow suit, I'll be less skeptical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I've decided we want it to be warmish tomorrow. The bad runs have the cold crash too quick. The closer to 60 we get in northern MD, the better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Gotta love Canda....poutine and the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I've decided we want it to be warmish tomorrow. The bad runs have the cold crash too quick. Exactly. This will be the first nowcasting of the event probably. 2z RAP continues with the low 60s here tomorrow. Temp gradient will be pretty cool if right (40s in northern MD on the RAP). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 2, 2014 Author Share Posted March 2, 2014 GFS @ 24 hours...no appreciable change..if anything just a hair north with precip shield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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