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March 2-3 Disco, Part III


stormtracker

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The sub-forum is teetering...so which way will the GFS push it, mania, or depression? I have no idea, but I think we could use a late game model war. How about a 100 mile shift north. That would make things interesting.

I'd just take a hold from the previous run. Truthfully, I wonder the last time Richmond out snowed us.

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One run, guys, one run....

Considering how much the NAM has shifted in 24 hours, I wouldn't be too worried unless the GFS and Euro decide to head to the Richmond party too. Even though this is different than we've seen thus far this year, almost every system so far has been a little NW than modeled..

You don't understand how the nam works. It's a high res meso model. It always jumps past 48 hours because slight errors become larger faster at longer leads. Nam is most likely done jumping. What we saw today was it coming into focus.

Favorable shifts are possible but the nam deserves plenty of respect now

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I'd just take a hold from the previous run. Truthfully, I wonder the last time Richmond out snowed us.

Richmond has been shafted for years. They miss all the good events. SE VA gets the sliders,and on most other events they are too south or not far enough west. I really wouldn't mind seeing them get a foot of snow.

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You don't understand how the nam works. It's a high res meso model. It always jumps past 48 hours because slight errors become larger faster at longer leads. Nam is most likely done jumping. What we saw today was it coming into focus.

Favorable shifts are possible but the nam deserves plenty of respect now

I hate to admit this but you're so right. THIS is the NAM's wheelhouse. 20-30 mile shifts would be huge. Let's hope it over corrected slightly. I'm also probably being greedy.

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Does anyone mind if I use the last few pages of posts in my thesis on model hugging?  Seriously though, yes it's concerning for DC/BWI totals but it only means something if other models agree.  21Z SREF still looked plenty good so no jumping off bridges until GFS/Euro show DC in .3 liquid after 12Z.

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The NAM now places the band of heaviest precip a little south of where the 12z Euro did.  The difference is that the northern edge is much more sharply cut off.  But I would be surprised to see the NAM go any further south.   The NAM has had a radical change in the last 18 hours that, as far as I know, is unlike any other model.  It went from jackpot western MA to jackpot southern DE.  It could just be it coming into range, or it could really be struggling with this setup.

 

There was one big south shift in the globals with the 12z GFS yesterday and 12z Euro yesterday.  Since then the GFS has been bouncing around between a more southern/less snowy solution (18z yesterday, 00z last night, and 18z today) and a more northern/snowier solution (12z yesterday, 06z today, 12z today). 

 

The band of heaviest snow on the Euro actually went north from 00z to 12z.  The main difference is that the MD/PA border lost out on some snow, I believe from the first wave.

 

18z NAM:

 

hires_snow_acc_washdc_16.png

 

12z Euro:

 

ecmwf_tsnow_washdc_11.png

00z Euro:

 

image.jpg

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Can I point out the last time temps were supposed to crash in advance of a storm (1/21) they didn't fall nearly as quick as expected? People were saying we would be in the upper 20's in the morning and most everyone was at or above freezing when the snow came in. I firmly think models are overdoing the shove of cold air and that we will get a shifit north. I do think there will be more mixing than anticipated as a result of this.

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You don't understand how the nam works. It's a high res meso model. It always jumps past 48 hours because slight errors become larger faster at longer leads. Nam is most likely done jumping. What we saw today was it coming into focus.

Favorable shifts are possible but the nam deserves plenty of respect now

I've seen the NAM jump significantly within 30hrs. I think the fact that it has yet to show any run-to-run stability suggests the opposite.

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Can I point out the last time temps were supposed to crash in advance of a storm (1/21) they didn't fall nearly as quick as expected? People were saying we would be in the upper 20's in the morning and most everyone was at or above freezing when the snow came in. I firmly think models are overdoing the shove of cold air and that we will get a shifit north. I do think there will be more mixing than anticipated as a result of this.

 

This is a completely different set up where we have a Canadian polar air mass pushing down with winds coming directly out of the north funneling the cold air (not from the NW being blocked/slowed but the Apps).  I'm not a psychic WRT how the models are handling this but I don't think you can compare this scenario to 1/21.

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Can I point out the last time temps were supposed to crash in advance of a storm (1/21) they didn't fall nearly as quick as expected? People were saying we would be in the upper 20's in the morning and most everyone was at or above freezing when the snow came in. I firmly think models are overdoing the shove of cold air and that we will get a shifit north. I do think there will be more mixing than anticipated as a result of this.

I agree with this

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