aldie 22 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 GFS will be North...it's how the emotions roll Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I see 00z RGEM out to 36... pretty sure we look very nice... someone else please check to make sure Nearly identical to earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 The sub-forum is teetering...so which way will the GFS push it, mania, or depression? I have no idea, but I think we could use a late game model war. How about a 100 mile shift north. That would make things interesting. I'd just take a hold from the previous run. Truthfully, I wonder the last time Richmond out snowed us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I don't think I ever wanted it to be as warm as possible the day before a storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I see 00z RGEM out to 36... pretty sure we look very nice... someone else please check to make sure Looks good to me. No where close to NAM. If anything, it looks like it held serve with last run according to the black and white maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 RGEM looks pretty good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I see 00z RGEM out to 36... pretty sure we look very nice... someone else please check to make sure I'm looking at the B&W maps...look good to me and very similar to 18z. WxBell not out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I see 00z RGEM out to 36... pretty sure we look very nice... someone else please check to make sure agree! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 It's a legit model especially inside 48 hrs. I thought it was 24 hours. No matter, models converging. Buckle up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 RGEM turns the tides a bit with a really nice hit. 6-9" for Baltimore it seems first look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 One run, guys, one run.... Considering how much the NAM has shifted in 24 hours, I wouldn't be too worried unless the GFS and Euro decide to head to the Richmond party too. Even though this is different than we've seen thus far this year, almost every system so far has been a little NW than modeled.. You don't understand how the nam works. It's a high res meso model. It always jumps past 48 hours because slight errors become larger faster at longer leads. Nam is most likely done jumping. What we saw today was it coming into focus. Favorable shifts are possible but the nam deserves plenty of respect now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 36 hrs RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I'd just take a hold from the previous run. Truthfully, I wonder the last time Richmond out snowed us. Richmond has been shafted for years. They miss all the good events. SE VA gets the sliders,and on most other events they are too south or not far enough west. I really wouldn't mind seeing them get a foot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 36 hrs RGEM How far south the snow line already is at 12z implies a very nice and probably early changeover. Looks like a great run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 36 hrs RGEM Wow, that looks pretty impressive. Thanks Mitch Those black and whites are killer for the eyes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 How far south the snow line already is at 12z implies a very nice and probably early changeover. Looks like a great run. agree and nice UVVs and 700mb moisture over us at 12Z Monday too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 agree and nice UVVs and 700mb moisture over us at 12Z Monday too Gonna go check the hour by hour page give me a minute. EDIT: out to 17hrs lots of precip to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 RGEM gives us at or a little above 10mm or .4" after 12Z per 48 hr map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 What's going on....just landed in warm Orlando ...I'm sweating here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 You don't understand how the nam works. It's a high res meso model. It always jumps past 48 hours because slight errors become larger faster at longer leads. Nam is most likely done jumping. What we saw today was it coming into focus. Favorable shifts are possible but the nam deserves plenty of respect now I hate to admit this but you're so right. THIS is the NAM's wheelhouse. 20-30 mile shifts would be huge. Let's hope it over corrected slightly. I'm also probably being greedy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I'd just take a hold from the previous run. Truthfully, I wonder the last time Richmond out snowed us. Last March. Do I need to post the picture of Cantore on the mall again, or is that burned in everyone's retinas already? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Does anyone mind if I use the last few pages of posts in my thesis on model hugging? Seriously though, yes it's concerning for DC/BWI totals but it only means something if other models agree. 21Z SREF still looked plenty good so no jumping off bridges until GFS/Euro show DC in .3 liquid after 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 The NAM now places the band of heaviest precip a little south of where the 12z Euro did. The difference is that the northern edge is much more sharply cut off. But I would be surprised to see the NAM go any further south. The NAM has had a radical change in the last 18 hours that, as far as I know, is unlike any other model. It went from jackpot western MA to jackpot southern DE. It could just be it coming into range, or it could really be struggling with this setup. There was one big south shift in the globals with the 12z GFS yesterday and 12z Euro yesterday. Since then the GFS has been bouncing around between a more southern/less snowy solution (18z yesterday, 00z last night, and 18z today) and a more northern/snowier solution (12z yesterday, 06z today, 12z today). The band of heaviest snow on the Euro actually went north from 00z to 12z. The main difference is that the MD/PA border lost out on some snow, I believe from the first wave. 18z NAM: 12z Euro: 00z Euro: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 What's going on....just landed in warm Orlando ...I'm sweating here Storm cancel. Highs in the mid 60's on Monday. Nothing else to see here. Move along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Can I point out the last time temps were supposed to crash in advance of a storm (1/21) they didn't fall nearly as quick as expected? People were saying we would be in the upper 20's in the morning and most everyone was at or above freezing when the snow came in. I firmly think models are overdoing the shove of cold air and that we will get a shifit north. I do think there will be more mixing than anticipated as a result of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 What's going on....just landed in warm Orlando ...I'm sweating here LWX just put us under a Blizzard warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 You don't understand how the nam works. It's a high res meso model. It always jumps past 48 hours because slight errors become larger faster at longer leads. Nam is most likely done jumping. What we saw today was it coming into focus. Favorable shifts are possible but the nam deserves plenty of respect now I've seen the NAM jump significantly within 30hrs. I think the fact that it has yet to show any run-to-run stability suggests the opposite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 2, 2014 Author Share Posted March 2, 2014 Well, RGEM should stabilize the jumpers for a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Can I point out the last time temps were supposed to crash in advance of a storm (1/21) they didn't fall nearly as quick as expected? People were saying we would be in the upper 20's in the morning and most everyone was at or above freezing when the snow came in. I firmly think models are overdoing the shove of cold air and that we will get a shifit north. I do think there will be more mixing than anticipated as a result of this. This is a completely different set up where we have a Canadian polar air mass pushing down with winds coming directly out of the north funneling the cold air (not from the NW being blocked/slowed but the Apps). I'm not a psychic WRT how the models are handling this but I don't think you can compare this scenario to 1/21. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Can I point out the last time temps were supposed to crash in advance of a storm (1/21) they didn't fall nearly as quick as expected? People were saying we would be in the upper 20's in the morning and most everyone was at or above freezing when the snow came in. I firmly think models are overdoing the shove of cold air and that we will get a shifit north. I do think there will be more mixing than anticipated as a result of this. I agree with this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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