ers-wxman1 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I don't think the Euro will help all that much at this range. All radar and satellite now. Heavy swath is making a bee-line for our area. Just patiently waiting for cold air to funnel on in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 On 3/3/2014 at 5:59 AM, DCAlexandria said: Euro not wirth looking at this ramgrSent from my iPhone D- for effort on that post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 On 3/3/2014 at 6:02 AM, Ian said: yeah, seems about right .. not bad for a quick hitter that starts as rain. euro can be low in short term too. yup..often 5z RAP smokes us...we are in a good spot...time for a nap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 The question now is how well that heavy swath makes it over the mountains. If they don't squeeze out too much moisture, we could get more than the HRRR/RAP are showing, which seem to be drying that impulse a lot as it crosses the Appalachians. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 On 3/3/2014 at 6:05 AM, zwyts said: yup..often 5z RAP smokes us...we are in a good spot...time for a nap 3rd straight RAP run that bullseyes DCA... 12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 On 3/3/2014 at 6:05 AM, zwyts said: yup..often 5z RAP smokes us...we are in a good spot...time for a nap if we're getting S+ text me till I respond Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 On 3/3/2014 at 6:06 AM, yoda said: 3rd straight RAP run that bullseyes DCA... 12" We've quibbled for what seems like an eternity but the forecast really hasn't changed in almost all aspects. If it wasn't for the stupid nam we would have 100 less posts in this thread. 6-10 with upside as you go south. It's been that simple even though it's been complicated. Ian is right. Too much data causes more harm then good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 On 3/3/2014 at 6:10 AM, Bob Chill said: We've quibbled for what seems like an eternity but the forecast really hasn't changed in almost all aspects. If it wasn't for the stupid nam we would have 100 less posts in this thread. 6-10 with upside as you go south. It's been that simple even though it's been complicated. Ian is right. Too much data causes more harm then good always #stormafterthestorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 On 3/3/2014 at 6:12 AM, Ian said: always #stormafterthestorm And you say lr forecasting isn't your thing. Come to the darkside. It's awful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 On 3/3/2014 at 6:12 AM, Ian said: always #stormafterthestorm Does this mean it is time to move to the long range discussion again? I'm eyeing a couple events over the next week+, but right now all look too warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 On 3/3/2014 at 6:14 AM, Random Chaos said: Does this mean it is time to move to the long range discussion again? I'm eyeing a couple events over the next week+, but right now all look too warm Last week this current event looked " warm". MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 On 3/3/2014 at 6:14 AM, Bob Chill said: And you say lr forecasting isn't your thing. Come to the darkside. It's awful Doubt my luck would last.. though if we can find a death ridge I'm in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 On 3/3/2014 at 6:17 AM, MDstorm said: Last week this current event looked " warm". MDstorm Last week this event was targeting Vermont! Enjoy the snow down there, pretty cool event for March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 On 3/3/2014 at 6:18 AM, Ian said: Doubt my luck would last.. though if we can find a death ridge I'm in. Death ridges are so last year. The Polar Vortex is the new big thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 On 3/3/2014 at 6:18 AM, Ian said: Doubt my luck would last.. though if we can find a death ridge I'm in. when you find that death ridge, feel free to jump! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 05z HRRR -- 6" DCA by 8 am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 On 3/3/2014 at 7:06 AM, yoda said: 05z HRRR -- 6" DCA by 8 am This is feeling more and more like March of last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 06z RAP -- DC to EZF along I-95 and S MD jackpot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 On 3/3/2014 at 7:11 AM, hosj III said: This is feeling more and more like March of last year. Yea, dropping through the 20's during daylight with heavy snow seems eerily familiar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 On 3/3/2014 at 7:12 AM, yoda said: 06z RAP -- DC to EZF along I-95 and S MD jackpot 05z HRRR matched up well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Mesoscale discussion from SPC http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0166.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 NAM - 0.6" or so after 9z...looking more and more like a 6-8"" event for DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 LWX discussion snip: AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTEDNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC354 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL TENNESSEE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG A COLDFRONT AND BRING WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION TODAY. COLD CANADIANHIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOWPRESSURE MAY AFFECT THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.&&.NEAR TERM /TODAY/... -- Changed Discussion -- HERE AT FCST OFFICE IP HAS BEEN ACCUMULATING SINCE 2 AM...AND CHGD TO SN AT 320 AM. DUAL POL IMPLIES P-TYPE CHG LN NOW STRETCHES FM NRN FAUQUIER...SRN LOUDOUN...INTO NRN ANNE ARUNDEL. N OF THIS LN WL BE CHANGING TO SN SHORTLY. THE LN WL CONT TO SINK S...AND THE COLDER AIR WL INTERACT W/ THE HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIR PRSNTLY OVR CENTRAL TN/KY AS THE MRNG PROGRESSES. HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS XPCTD TO BE S OF DC...XTNDG ON A LN FM SHD/CHO TO NHK. 8 TO 10" XPCTD THERE...ARND 5" ON THE MASON-DIXON LN. THERE IS ALSO A PTNL FOR LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS IN THE HIGHLANDS... ESPECIALLY HIGHLAND/PENDLETON CO`S. HIGH TEMP FCST IS ESPECIALLY TRICKY. THE CD FNT HAS SUNK TO THE VA/NC BORDER...BUT THE MAJOR PUSH OF COLDER AIR IS STILL BACK TO THE N. HIGH TEMPS FOR DAY WL LKLY OCCUR W/ THE START OF THE TDA PD AND THEN FALL THRUT THE DAY. -- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I could be wrong but it appears the HRRR has been steadily narrowing it's precipitation shield, giving the northern burbs quite the sharp cutoff and showing a much narrower band of heavy accumulations to the south of DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Pingers still a pingin - I just cant shake. this damned warm nose f### Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I337 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 On 3/3/2014 at 10:00 AM, SLPressure said: I could be wrong but it appears the HRRR has been steadily narrowing it's precipitation shield, giving the northern burbs quite the sharp cutoff and showing a much narrower band of heavy accumulations to the south of DC. D.C. doesn't look too far off from the max. http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/displayMapLocalDiskDateDomainZip.cgi?keys=hrrr_jet:&runtime=2014030307&plot_type=acsnw_t3sfc&fcst=15&time_inc=60&num_times=16&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=15&fcstStrLen=-1&domain=t3&adtfn=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 On 3/3/2014 at 10:10 AM, BTRWx said: D.C. doesn't look too far off from the max. No it isn't. But the prog for further north has come down some. I still think everyone does well, just observing that the gradient to the north has been somewhat enhanced over the last 5 or 6 runs of the HRRR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 **Time Sensitive** What is that phenomena on the Sterling radar at the Frederick / Montgomery County line. Looks like a north/south ribbon of intense snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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