Cold Rain Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Problem is RDU only get's 0.10" of precip frozen, hard to tell with GSO. NAM is pretty good with temps, not ready to completely give up hope, will wait for RGEM to do that, it's been the most consistent along with UK. NAM has been bouncing around but considering we are 18 hours out it should be able to nail this now. Meh, it's not a big deal, was hoping to see some sleet but not the end of the world, spring starts for us on Saturday after this soaking rain we get from the coastal. The MA is having another historic winter, top 5 was what I read for DC. The road to truth takes many turns...sometimes north, sometimes south. There's still some road left yet to travel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I still have sleet piles in my front flower beds (north side) from the 2/12-13 event. So, I really hold sleet in very high regard due to its staying power. Record for snow/ice in my yard is 30 days. If we can get a decent hit Thursday, maybe I can make a run at it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 The road to truth takes many turns...sometimes north, sometimes south. There's still some road left yet to travel. LOL, we will see. I like where Brick is better than we are, the NAM's get the freezing line right down I-40 for a couple of hours and than finally drops. If RGEM goes north I am out Verbatim on the 4km NAM we ping for 4-5 hours, not sure how much precip that is though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 The Ridge in the immediate SE has basically been in control all winter. This is a classic example currently. KATL has already received 250% of its annual average SN/IP in addition to a significant amount of ZR. Actually, the ridge being nearby and allowing for a battleground between warm and cold has resulted in the well above average wintry precip. in Atlanta and much of the SE US. I'd obviously take that any winter ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 LOL, we will see. I like where Brick is better than we are, the NAM's get the freezing line right down I-40 for a couple of hours and than finally drops. If RGEM goes north I am out Verbatim on the 4km NAM we ping for 4-5 hours, not sure how much precip that is though. On the Hi-Res, RDU is around 0.3" QPF. GSO is 0.5-0.6" QPF. Roxboro is ~0.5" QPF. That's actually a big uptick from last run, when GSO was around 0.3" and RDU was 0.2", I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 On the Hi-Res, RDU is around 0.3" QPF. GSO is 0.5-0.6" QPF. Roxboro is ~0.5" QPF. That's actually a big uptick from last run, when GSO was around 0.3" and RDU was 0.2", I believe. 0z HRRR blows chunks, warmer than the NAM's and actually brings in the precip to us much earlier thus would be mostly rain. It has the freezing line well into VA at the same time the NAM has it almost to GSO/Wake County at 10am tomorrow. Though the HRRR is still a little outside it's range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I really don't have much invested in this storm so whatever frozen precip I end up w/ will be great. This was one of them storms I saw on the models but always thought it would end up north of me until a couple of days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 This run is still enough to cause significant travel problems for GSO, RDU, etc. The surface freezing line is all the way down to the NC/SC border by tomorrow afternoon. The foothills stay quite balmy. The leeside areas are still above freezing by evening. No snow this run for anyone south of the NC/VA border. It's all IP/ZR. It's showing 19 here at 7 PM tomorrow night. Brrr. I'd guess DCA is around 9-12" per this run. CHO is the jackpot area, it seems. Thing is I'm headed to Greensboro in the morning to work! So I may get to see frozen precip anyway. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lookingnorth Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I'm a little confused. Has this system been trending better or worse over the past few hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I'm a little confused. Has this system been trending better or worse over the past few hours?NAM worse (more north). Some of the short range models still look decent. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Folks dont forget the hrrr has a north and west bias to my knowledge so dont completely buy into just yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Thing is I'm headed to Greensboro in the morning to work! So I may get to see frozen precip anyway. lol I know SJ is just telling us what the models are saying, but no way it's right we will go below freezing rather early. The cold air loves to bank up against the mountains and funnel down the App Chain. into our foothills region maybe south toward asheville region but i doubt it stays above freezing here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Woah, the 00z RGEM looks south compared to 12z, I think. Looking at the B&W maps, it's a little south, but precip looks more meager up towards the Mid-Atlantic at hr 12-24. I can't really compare it with 18z since the panels are only every 12 hours. (Better maps will be out eventually) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SD1 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 It's nowcast time. If the cold air rushes in quicker we get more, but less if the cold delays 3 or 4 hours due to precipitation winding down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Woah, the 00z RGEM looks south compared to 12z, I think. Looking at the B&W maps, it's a little south, but precip looks more meager up towards the Mid-Atlantic at hr 12-24. I can't really compare it with 18z since the panels are only every 12 hours. (Better maps will be out eventually) RGEM held, looks a tick colder, although not 100% sure. Will know for sure in 10 mins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugo Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 So are we allowed to discuss SC in this thread? NWS seems to disagree that this storm will be contained entirely in NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparkync Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 So are we allowed to discuss SC in this thread? NWS seems to disagree that this storm will be contained entirely in NC. sure u can!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 RGEM has about 5mm of frozen for RDU, roughly 3 for sleet and 2 for snow, roughly same as 18z. Big deal was the drop off in precip for the MA, not sure why that happened, only has 12 mm of snow for DC, all previous runs had 18-20mm. Probably a fluke I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Here is the current surface map for you record keepers. Cold air is building waiting to spill over the mountains. Shall be interesting in a several hours. A strong CAD is on the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 RGEM has about 5mm of frozen for RDU, roughly 3 for sleet and 2 for snow, roughly same as 18z. Big deal was the drop off in precip for the MA, not sure why that happened, only has 12 mm of snow for DC, all previous runs had 18-20mm. Probably a fluke I guess. Yeah, that's the main thing I noticed with the run. It might provide nice meltdown material when someone mentions it in there. Doesn't the RGEM run a little warm sometimes? I know it was too warm leading up to the 2/12-2/13 event, at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 RGEM has about 5mm of frozen for RDU, roughly 3 for sleet and 2 for snow, roughly same as 18z. Big deal was the drop off in precip for the MA, not sure why that happened, only has 12 mm of snow for DC, all previous runs had 18-20mm. Probably a fluke I guess. 5 mm doesn't sound like much at all. But I don't know. I can't remember how that translates to inches, and I'm too lazy to try and look it up on a Blackberry that barely connects to the net anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 5 mm doesn't sound like much at all. But I don't know. I can't remember how that translates to inches, and I'm too lazy to try and look it up on a Blackberry that barely connects to the net anyway. 5 mm = ~0.2" in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Yeah, that's the main thing I noticed with the run. It might provide nice meltdown material when someone mentions it in there. Doesn't the RGEM run a little warm sometimes? I know it was too warm leading up to the 2/12-2/13 event, at least. yes it does James Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Here is the current surface map for you record keepers. Cold air is building waiting to spill over the mountains. Shall be interesting in a several hours. A strong CAD is on the way. The cold air is coming down from the north, and even northeast. There's not going to be any cold air "spilling over the mountains" in this situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 5 mm = ~0.2" in. Thanks man! Appreciate it. That sounds better to me, for some reason, than 5 mm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Here is the current surface map for you record keepers. Cold air is building waiting to spill over the mountains. Shall be interesting in a several hours. A strong CAD is on the way. You mean moisture?? Cold air is sourced from the Northeast for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 GFS continues to look good on the 0z run for southern va and northern nc 850s and precip aligning right. This one hopefully will play out right when we wake up tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 3, 2014 Author Share Posted March 3, 2014 The cold air is coming down from the north, and even northeast. There's not going to be any cold air "spilling over the mountains" in this situation.I think it has to get over mountains at some point, even if up in PA, because the MA weenies are still waiting on there temps to drop to the lower 30s, then it will funnel S/SW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 You mean moisture?? Cold air is sourced from the Northeast for this event. Yep. Need that broad area of lp depicted right over Boone to get east of us off the tidewater area, then the NE winds will do the trick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Thanks man! Appreciate it. That sounds better to me, for some reason, than 5 mm. RGEM has 9mm total, wasn't quite cold enough for the first 4mm. It did run warm for the 2/11 event but this is a different setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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