FLweather Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 The 18z GFS drops GSO from 52 to 22 in six hours during the time period from 9 AM-3PM tomorrow. Good Lord. The GFS shows 0.5"+ from INT over towards RDU and to the north, but some of that is rain. Think thats crazy. For here GFS goes from near 42 around 7am to 26 by 10 am. Was it me or did the GFS not look too impressive. Seems like the 850 is barely just getting through ROA as the heaviest precip rolls through. Looks like it may be a plastering all over everything. It would be more rain to sleet here. But hard to believe it though. Later tonight once the 925mb and 850mb front starts playing catch up with the surface front the precip and sub freezing 850 should go hand and hand. Yep, pathetic, huh...It is beautiful out though, who needs blistering cold anymore, anyway? NC will not be as cold as they think they are either, they are under the same ridge. It will. The angle of the cold is different than normally but eventually it will be all pushed south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Think thats crazy. For here GFS goes from near 42 around 7am to 26 by 10 am. It would be more rain to sleet here. But hard to believe it though. Later tonight once the 925mb and 850mb front starts playing catch up with the surface front the precip and sub freezing 850 should go hand and hand. It will. The angle of the cold is different than normally but eventually it will be all pushed south and east. What do think, NC Weather...risk driving down to Henderson in morning for work at 9. Sounds like getting back to virgilina might be tricky after 11a? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Yea I agree pretty much nowadays the only thing I use the NAM for is for its thermals and low level cold sniffing. NAM handles these events well. The GFS depiction may come to fruition more so than the NAM however I believe the NAM will do better with the 2M and 850 setup. Can someone give me a brief description of what the RGEM is showing? It is so darn hard to read those maps I cant really decipher what it is saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 What do think, NC Weather...risk driving down to Henderson in morning for work at 9. Sounds like getting back to virgilina might be tricky after 11a? It will take a bit for it to freeze up because of the very warm temps today. The problem is, because of the rapid drop in temperature and expected cold wind, when it does freeze it will all go at once. Should be a fun ride. I fully expect to be looking at traffic jams on the news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 What do think, NC Weather...risk driving down to Henderson in morning for work at 9. Sounds like getting back to virgilina might be tricky after 11a? Thats a pretty good stretch to travel. Honestly I'd play it safe. Is your boss aware? See what it looks like before maybe wake up early to check the radar. If knew it was about to start imeddiately I would call out. 1 less body to be walking around stranded on the side of the road. Really between that timeframe 9-12 the precip could set in solidly and flash freeze. Lol burns but I agree turn on the TV thats what will probably happen though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DueUCMe Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Frank Strait's Accu-Weather Vlog... http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/strait/tx-to-va-snow-and-ice-carolinas-later/23943217 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 The latest RAP lines up very well with the 18z NAM through 17z tomorrow, actually has it below freezing between 16-17z tomorrow. Hopefully it's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Does the HRRR have a northward bias? It's pretty far north. There's a lot of posting of it in the Mid-Atlantic forum. It seems like it tends to end up too far north/west, but maybe I'm just making things up. The RAP looks nice. I like being RAPped. I saw Cantore is going to DC. Worrying for them... The last time Cantore visited DC in March, he was at the national mall standing on bare ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Does the HRRR have a northward bias? It's pretty far north. There's a lot of posting of it in the Mid-Atlantic forum. It seems like it tends to end up too far north/west, but maybe I'm just making things up. The RAP looks nice. I like being RAPped. I saw Cantore is going to DC. Worrying for them... The last time Cantore visited DC in March, he was at the national mall standing on bare ground. Both the RAP and HRRR are usually to far north at this range, under 12 hours they get more accurate. With that said the HRRR looks fine to me, precip max matches NAM through 13z tomorrow. Looks drier than the NAM to me too. DC is good for 6-8", I don't see the 10"+ for them, maybe south of there. We will see, I hope so, hopefully they blow it out this winter, because you have to pay the piper eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 The Ridge in the immediate SE has basically been in control all winter. This is a classic example currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 The Ridge in the immediate SE has basically been in control all winter. This is a classic example currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 The Ridge in the immediate SE has basically been in control all winter. This is a classic example currently. We'll kudos to the SE ridge cause most of us up here are at to way above normal annual snowfall wise. Not to mention it was a pretty cold winter IMO from mid Nov until late Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Southeast Ridge FTW! If this is the effects of SE ridge, ill take it every winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 NAM is north on it's 0z run, not good for us south of the border folks, lovely for the MA though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 NAM is a solid 30 mile north jump, jackpots DC now instead of central VA, won't be good ROA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 We'll kudos to the SE ridge cause most of us up here are at to way above normal annual snowfall wise. Not to mention it was a pretty cold winter IMO from mid Nov until late Feb. Yep, I got 12 inches of snow (above average) from a so called southeast ridge winter......and temps near 0 degrees F twice. Maybe the SE ridge dominated down in GA but not in NC. Will be interesting watching the temps drop tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 The Ridge in the immediate SE has basically been in control all winter. This is a classic example currently. Maybe if you were at 1125' you would have seen more snow. I am loving this "ridge". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Well, my former town is being crushed this run, but not here. Bah. It's a small shift north, but it doesn't take much when you're on the line. There should still be some frozen precip, though. I'd speculate GSO goes below freezing somewhere around 16z (11 AM) this run. Raleigh will be a little later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Both the RAP and HRRR are usually to far north at this range, under 12 hours they get more accurate. With that said the HRRR looks fine to me, precip max matches NAM through 13z tomorrow. Looks drier than the NAM to me too. DC is good for 6-8", I don't see the 10"+ for them, maybe south of there. We will see, I hope so, hopefully they blow it out this winter, because you have to pay the piper eventually. Scratch that comment above, with this jump and temps they are seeing it could be 12"+, assuming NAM QPF is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Well, my former town is being crushed this run, but not here. Bah. It's a small shift north, but it doesn't take much when you're on the line. There should still be some frozen precip, though. LOL, we should have known a north bump was going to occur, especially when it benefits the MA, LOL. Maybe we won't have to deal with very much around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 LOL, we should have known a north bump was going to occur, especially when it benefits the MA, LOL. Maybe we won't have to deal with very much around here. This run is still enough to cause significant travel problems for GSO, RDU, etc. The surface freezing line is all the way down to the NC/SC border by tomorrow afternoon. The foothills stay quite balmy. The leeside areas are still above freezing by evening. No snow this run for anyone south of the NC/VA border. It's all IP/ZR. It's showing 19 here at 7 PM tomorrow night. Brrr. I'd guess DCA is around 9-12" per this run. CHO is the jackpot area, it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Yep, I got 12 inches of snow (above average) from a so called southeast ridge winter......and temps near 0 degrees F twice. Maybe the SE ridge dominated down in GA but not in NC. Will be interesting watching the temps drop tomorrow. So has GA, do you think NC and GA are in two different Universes? All I am saying is this looks like what I have seen many times. The SE ridge is not letting this plunge SE ward, take a look at this radar and you will see what I mean. I am probably wrong. This is a majority west of the Apps event. http://www.localwireless.com/wap/weather/radar/animated/?sid=1001&state=GA&city=Atlanta&d=540&zc=&submit=Save&showstorms=10&showids=1&r=384.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 This run is still enough to cause significant travel problems for GSO, RDU, etc. The surface freezing line is all the way down to the NC/SC border by tomorrow afternoon. The foothills stay quite balmy. The leeside areas are still above freezing by evening. Problem is RDU only get's 0.10" of precip frozen, hard to tell with GSO. NAM is pretty good with temps, not ready to completely give up hope, will wait for RGEM to do that, it's been the most consistent along with UK. NAM has been bouncing around but considering we are 18 hours out it should be able to nail this now. Meh, it's not a big deal, was hoping to see some sleet but not the end of the world, spring starts for us on Saturday after this soaking rain we get from the coastal. The MA is having another historic winter, top 5 was what I read for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 When does GSO drop to freezing and how much qpf from that point on? TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 When does GSO drop to freezing and how much qpf from that point on? TW Somewhere around 11 AM, give or take, with probably a couple tenths after the changeover. It starts out as rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 ROA still does all right, some sleet than maybe 5-6" of snow. RIC does alright still, some sleet with 6-7" of snow. DC get's almost 1" QPF of all snow, with ratio's that could be 12-14". Ji get's 8-10", only saving grace is he is missing this storm, he is FL, LOL. Kind of hope they jackpot for this reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Thats still a ton of moisture coming through ROA between hours 15-18 with the 850 line solidly to our south however cant see soundings so I hope theres not a ton of sleet before the change to snow. Lol with the NAM tho different solution almost every run. Anyone recall what the euro showed today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 sref plumes are out. looks a little colder to me. Higher probabilities for sleet, lower for rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Somewhere around 11 AM, give or take, with probably a couple tenths after the changeover. It starts out as rain.I'll take .20 after we get to freezing considering it should plummet to the low/mid 20's shortly thereafter. Oh well. Better than what we were expecting just a couple days ago. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I'll take .20 after we get to freezing considering it should plummet to the low/mid 20's shortly thereafter. Oh well. Better than what we were expecting just a couple days ago. TW The Hi-Res NAM plunges us below freezing at 10 AM with heavy precip falling. Though the storm is further north, that's about the same time as the 18z run. We ping until the late afternoon, by which time we're down to 19F. Looks a little better than the 18z Hi-Res NAM run, actually. EDIT: It is... we're around 0.5" QPF, which roughly agrees with the 00z Euro. The RAP also shows some very heavy precipitation with >0.25" QPF/hour in some spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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