Buddy1987 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I, for one, don't think the model trends are encouraging. Temps are trending warmer, and precip is delayed getting in and quicker to leave. Yea I feel for you man I would say I would not have my hopes up too high anywhere south of the VA border too many question marks to get excited honestly. With rates and 850s crashing in my area I feel a little better but not completely gung ho. Trends were encouraging as both NAM and GFS at 12z had the 850 line well south of my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 i would go for a .25 inch of mess in rdu. Obviously starting as rain and then truning to zr/sleet with a glaze of snow at the end. Enough to make roads a nightmare monday evening/tuesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I, for one, don't think the model trends are encouraging. Temps are trending warmer, and precip is delayed getting in and quicker to leave. I don't know. Ive got to disagree. Things look pretty good into the northern half of NC and down around RDU area personally. Temps are going to be warm till the surface front passes. Then the precip moves in and temps crash quickly. There may be a brief mix of rain and sleet. But should be a quick transition to snow for most of the northern half. The best example I can say right now for this type of setup is 11-12-13. Not the amounts. But remember when it was near 60 and the sun was out. Then the surface front came through temps quickly crashed. The overcast quickly developed behind the front as temps were falling. The precip started falling as snow here but rain down south with temps near 60 3 hours prior. Then as temps cooled the rain quickly changed to snow. Its a good probablity of how that plays out tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 UK is colder with it's 850's at 18z tomorrow, 0z had it at the border at 18z. I think I-40 and points north see some frozen, just depends on how much precip falls after 18z tomorrow, I think the NC border counties can see 2" of snow/sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 This is the latest GFS for RDU, fairly impressive, hopefully Euro follows in 30 mins…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Winter storm watch for northern NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 It's hard to tell how much of this is frozen, but that's a lot of precip and a flash freeze! Pingermageddon! Station ID: KGSO Lat: 36.09 Long: 79.94 GFS Model Run: 12Z 2MAR 2014 HR Valid 2m Tmp 2m Dpt 10m Dir 10m Spd TPrcp CPrcp 1000-500 500mb 850mb 500mb MSLP TCC PRS WX Low Middle High Max Min Sfc Deg F Deg F deg kt in. in. Thk GPH Tmp Tmp mb % TEXT Clouds Clouds Clouds Tmp Tmp Vis 24 03/03 12Z 49 46 218 7 0.06 0.00 556 565 7.3 -14.6 1011.1 99 -RA 056FEW093 139BKN236 236OVC411 52 49 1.6 30 03/03 18Z 23 20 38 19 0.61 0.00 546 560 2.2 -17.3 1017.1 100 PL 016BKN119 122OVC218 251OVC387 49 23 0.7 36 03/04 00Z 21 19 45 14 0.03 0.00 539 558 -1.8 -21.2 1024.4 100 -SN 031BKN086 130FEW196 244FEW285 25 21 1.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Going to be interesting to see how much the rain hurts accumulating snow up in DC, they are looking at roughly 1" QPF with roughly a 1/3 of it has rain, fairly heavy rain in the 40's and than the sleet/snow. It will freeze like a block of ice for them whatever does accumulate though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 It's hard to tell how much of this is frozen, but that's a lot of precip and a flash freeze! Pingermageddon! RDU GSO - not sure why you have more rain and not sure how accurate these things are, but they are cool to look at. One reason why it's showing so much rain is that includes all precip through 180 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Hour 31 12z CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I am riding JB's favorite now, it's way south, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 This is the latest GFS for RDU, fairly impressive, hopefully Euro follows in 30 mins….I'd like to see a 20 degree drop in 3 hours. That'll be impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 The CRAS still looks good, too, Pack. The 00z CRAS and 12 CRAS give us a fair amount of snow! http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras45_NA/12/model_m.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I'd like to see a 20 degree drop in 3 hours. That'll be impressive. Yeah, tomorrow temp drops will be everything for us, that's a big drop on the GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 The CRAS still looks good, too, Pack. The 00z CRAS and 12 CRAS give us a fair amount of snow! http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras45_NA/12/model_m.html LOL, watch the Euro come in way north JB is still holding out hope the heaviest axes will be in central PA, refusing to change his forecast yet, that's just sad, or he is really good, will find out in about 15 mins with the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 LOL, watch the Euro come in way north JB is still holding out hope the heaviest axes will be in central PA, refusing to change his forecast yet, that's just sad, or he is really good, will find out in about 15 mins with the Euro. JB is often stubborn. Maybe he'll be right... we'll see. I prefer a blend of the JMA and CRAS models right now. Got to love some of the Mid-Atlantic weenies making posts about how "radar looks south of where the NAM had it!", etc. That forum is a trip sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 JB is often stubborn. Maybe he'll be right... we'll see. I prefer a blend of the JMA and CRAS models right now. Got to love some of the Mid-Atlantic weenies making posts about how "radar looks south of where the NAM had it!", etc. That forum is a trip sometimes. LOL, JMA/CRAS all the way. Well the Euro ain't north, that's for sure, could be a lot of frustrated MA folks and happy ROA/RIC folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 WOW, Euro wayyyy south, congrats ROA/RIC! Not sure how we are going to do, precip probably won't be great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 You can already tell this is coming south by hr 12. I'm not sure if NYC even gets 1" this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 LOL, JMA/CRAS all the way. Well the Euro ain't north, that's for sure, could be a lot of frustrated MA folks and happy ROA/RIC folks. No it isn't...It is way south. Looks like ip to sn for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 No it isn't...It is way south. Looks like ip to sn for our area. Definitely, looks like SuperJames may do very well! Congrats ROA/RIC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Crappy snow maps I have, not the WB ones, have 2-4" for central NC with 4-6" for northern border counties, close for GSO on the 4-6" range. Just nuts. Probably some/alot/all maybe sleet so 2-4" might be .75-1" of accumulating sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 It's still not a bad run for DC since it's mostly snow. GSO's 850s crash to 0C by hr 30. That's quick. Surface temperatures are in the mid-20s by then. Definitely a better run. Looks like IP to SN for a lot of areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 It's still not a bad run for DC. GSO's 850s crash to 0C by hr 30. That's quick. Surface temperatures are in the mid-20s by then. Nope, not bad for DC, because they have less rain, more snow with the precip they do get, the south trend is better for them, not for places north of there though. Looks like ROA jackpots this run 10-12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Crappy snow maps I have, not the WB ones, have 2-4" for central NC with 4-6" for northern border counties, close for GSO on the 4-6" range. Just nuts. Probably some/alot/all maybe sleet so 2-4" might be .75-1" of accumulating sleet. SV snow maps have 2-3" for our area. That might be on the high side but right now some ip w/ maybe an inch of sn for our area is a possibility. I'll take it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Looks like around 0.5" for GSO/INT, 0.4" for RDU/IGX/RZZ... mostly frozen (maybe all?). Last night's run was ~0.3" and was warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncweather Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 What do you guys think for the foothills? Maybe a flash freeze after some heavy rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 The RAP looks a little further south at the end of its run than the NAM. It's also just not as wet for NOVA. Yeah, I don't know why I'm looking at it, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I've been in the mountains all weekend with no access to a computer, so thanks for the pbp, guys. Heading back home now, but from what I've been reading, it certainly seems like we've seen some good trends for Central NC to pick up some frozen (#brickbot). Sounds like the Euro also likes the area for some snow for the late week thing...this run at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 The RAP looks a little further south at the end of its run than the NAM. It's also just not as wet for NOVA. Yeah, I don't know why I'm looking at it, either. The UK and RGEM have been consistent, they were good with the 2/11 event too. But really all models match up well now. Curious to see 18z RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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