Disc Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 packbacker, on 01 Mar 2014 - 10:48 PM, said:packbacker, on 01 Mar 2014 - 10:48 PM, said: I would go with the Euro and RGEM at this range, NAM is probably overdone. RGEM gets me to atleast warning criteria snows. Not very pretty for you guys though. Guess I'll be up for the Euro.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 LOL, JMA went way south, probably as far south as the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 The UKMET might be a little further south and/or colder for us. It's really hard to tell, though, with the horrible maps. I guess we need to watch and see how warm it gets tomorrow. The colder, the better. I believe the regular 00z Canadian is coming in further south than its 12z run. EDIT: Yes, it definitely is, though its 12z run was a torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 The UKMET might be a little further south and/or colder for us. It's really hard to tell, though, with the horrible maps. I guess we need to watch and see how warm it gets tomorrow. The colder, the better. I believe the regular 00z Canadian is coming in further south than its 12z run. EDIT: Yes, it definitely is, though its 12z run was a torch. Way south, take a look. http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/UKMET/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Thanks, Pack. The 00z CRAS crushes us. Yeah, you know you want to hug it! I always thought the horrible CRAS model had a bias towards overamplifying and going too far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SD1 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 00Z NAM http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=NC&stn=KRDU&model=nam&time=current&field=prec http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=NC&stn=KRDU&model=gfs&time=current&field=prec http://coolwx.com/ptype/ http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getptype.cgi?region=us&model=nam&run=00&fhr=02&field=ptype Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 The 00z Euro basically holds its 12z solution. DC gets hammered... N NC gets a few tenths of frozen. The NAM is on its own at the moment with its far south solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I think I would go with the nam at this time frame as we are in its wheelhouse.. nam went south r gem ticked south. Today is going to be the deciding factor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I think I would go with the nam at this time frame as we are in its wheelhouse.. nam went south r gem ticked south. Today is going to be the deciding factor The 06z NAM ticked back north towards the other guidance. Nevertheless, it looks like all models agree on a period of sleet for N NC on Monday afternoon/evening with possible accumulations of T-1". I'll take it. With the way the cold air is coming in, it seems like NE NC will be the place to be. DC looks to get hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 If I'm correct the 6 gfs ticked south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 NWS has issued WSW along the VA border. With Caswell county west a WWA. Eventually that will be expanded south and east. NWS Rah claiming mostly Sleet for the folks in WSW up to 1" sleet accum. But there is got to be something more to it than sleet. 7 miles down the road in Semora, NC(Caswell County) under Blacksburg... There is a WWA with Rain/Sleet/Snow with 1-3" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 NWS has issued WSW along the VA border. With Caswell county west a WWA. Eventually that will be expanded south and east. NWS Rah claiming mostly Sleet for the folks in WSW up to 1" sleet accum. But there is got to be something more to it than sleet. 7 miles down the road in Semora, NC(Caswell County) under Blacksburg... There is a WWA with Rain/Sleet/Snow with 1-3" of snow. 4 miles up the road, across the border, we have Blacksburg advertising 2 -4" of snow/sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Not sure if the recent north ticks are a trend or not. I doubt it though with the amount of cold air pressing south. This has no choice but to go S/SE. Once the surface front passes ahead of the main precip shield temps should drop fast. I think there maybe a quicker change over than whats showing. Since the temp crashes aloft will be with the precip falling. I'm also not sure sure what the 12z models show... I would assume the trend so far. Keep pushing south and east. Fwiw. Its the gfs but the heaviest axis of precip has shifted south since 0Z. 0Z 6Z 4 miles up the road, across the border, we have Blacksburg advertising 2 -4" of snow/sleet. Thats weird at the difference amongst the offices all within about a 50 mile radius of here. I think S. VA NC border counties could see 4-6" easly assuming a fast change over to snow with qpf amounts near .5". If things keep pushing south and the heaviest band sets up near by this area could be pushing 8-10" really quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 12Z Nam at 27 much colder comparing it to the 6z 33 hr image. Looks like a very nice hit for southern and central va from 27-33. Even northen NC cools very nicely at this timeframe. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 For the Tidewater, VA area , former WAVY TV Met John Cash says... Snow/Sleet Index hits a 10! Snow Index at an 8. You will wake up tomorrow morning wondering where the storm is.IT IS HIGHLY ADVISED THAT SCHOOL SYSTEMS AND WORK PLACES CALL IT A DAY AND DO NOT ATTEMPT TO OPEN. YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED. REMEMBER WHAT HAPPENED IN ATLANTA A COUPLE OF WEEKS AGO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 For the Tidewater, VA area , former WAVY TV Met John Cash says... Snow/Sleet Index hits a 10! Snow Index at an 8. You will wake up tomorrow morning wondering where the storm is. IT IS HIGHLY ADVISED THAT SCHOOL SYSTEMS AND WORK PLACES CALL IT A DAY AND DO NOT ATTEMPT TO OPEN. YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED. REMEMBER WHAT HAPPENED IN ATLANTA A COUPLE OF WEEKS AGO. He need to gets his dates correct, what happened in ATL was well over a month ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 12Z Nam at 27 much colder comparing it to the 6z 33 hr image. Looks like a very nice hit for southern and central va from 27-33. Even northen NC cools very nicely at this timeframe. We'll see. Yeah it does. Interesting note if you look at the 24 precip totals from 12 and 6z there is an ever so slight shift to the south with the heaviest axis. Roanoke lynchburg areas look to be the most probable areas to get the most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Sounds like the rgem ticked south a bit too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Southern and central VA get raked between hours 27-30. Precip maxima right over my head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Southern and central VA get raked between hours 27-30. Precip maxima right over my head. Did the gfs tick further south and colder? I don't remember the 6z being as much for southern VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Keeps coming south. This might be a bigger deal than people thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Buddy1987, on 02 Mar 2014 - 10:38 AM, said:Southern and central VA get raked between hours 27-30. Precip maxima right over my head. Snow maps seems too low for our area. GFS only has 2-3" for ROA, but I think it's taking into account that it'll be 33-34 once it starts snowing, but if rates are heavy enough, it's going to accumulate. Maybe not on roads, but grassy and other surfaces are going to add up quick with the rates GFS is advertising.. I don't see much in the way of sleet either. We go from rain to maybe a brief sleet burst, then to heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Keeps coming south. This might be a bigger deal than people thought. 12z NAM would give our area 1 to 2" of snow/sleet. Looks to be some real icy roads come Tuesday morning with the temps dropping into the teens. It will be interesting tomorrow to track the timing of the cold air as it pushes in from the north. This may be the few times where the back-door cold front may get to us first before folks to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Keeps coming south. This might be a bigger deal than people thought. You are correct. The tricky part is that another 20 mile shift north or south will affect an entire row of counties. When the counties are Forsyth, Guilford, Alamance, Orange, Durham, and Wake, that's a major deal! I'm glad I'm nor a forecaster on this one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Did the gfs tick further south and colder? I don't remember the 6z being as much for southern VA. QPF wise... gfs is relatively unchanged from 6 to 12z. The amounts have changed slightly from run to run.. but gfs has the heaviest axis of qpf from N TN, S KY into central and southern VA. Assuming heights crash as precip moves in the predominate precip type is rain to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 You are correct. The tricky part is that another 20 mile shift north or south will affect an entire row of counties. When the counties are Forsyth, Guilford, Alamance, Orange, Durham, and Wake, that's a major deal! I'm glad I'm nor a forecaster on this one! RGEM and NAM end as snow for I-40 north, closer to the border may see 2", down by us 1" maximum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Did the gfs tick further south and colder? I don't remember the 6z being as much for southern VA. It has a colder look 850 wise as does the NAM both at hours 27 and 30. GFS has precip maxima right over southern VA after 850 is well south of my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I, for one, don't think the model trends are encouraging. Temps are trending warmer, and precip is delayed getting in and quicker to leave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 12z NAM would give our area 1 to 2" of snow/sleet. Looks to be some real icy roads come Tuesday morning with the temps dropping into the teens. It will be interesting tomorrow to track the timing of the cold air as it pushes in from the north. This may be the few times where the back-door cold front may get to us first before folks to the west. My worry is it starts during work and school hours and we have a repeat of last storm and 05 with the roads being a mess because everyone leaves at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncweather Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Look at the ncep forecast map for Tuesday morning. It looks like a mess for WNC. What are yalls thoughts on that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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