packfan98 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 James, I'm not seeing your clown map from the 4k. I want to see all the pretty colors!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Surface temperatures are insane. We're almost all in the teens as the storm wraps up, per the Hi-Res NAM. I'm interested if the RGEM will also tick south or if the NAM is on drugs. Pack, I'm not sure why it's not showing up. Is it showing up for others? It's a WeatherBell map, but they don't seem to mind people posting maps every now and then (free advertisement). It's showing up for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 im worried about another raleigh trafficmagedon if this timing is accurate. talk about a nightmare. i am working from home monday. roads will be a skating rink at 5-6pm on monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 BIG FROSTY is getting snowed on from hr 42-45, it appears as raging sleet turns to snow. This is a great run. Looks like the whole of N NC might change over by the end. Of course, I'm a bit skeptical of using the Hi-Res NAM in general. Surface freezing line is down past the NC/SC border by hr 45... looks like a bit of icing down there. It looks like Greensboro east along northern NC gets colder quicker than me here to the west. So I think Greensboro/Raleigh will probably have more frozen precip than me? Cold coming in from NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 superjames1992, on 01 Mar 2014 - 9:52 PM, said: Surface temperatures are insane. We're almost all in the teens as the storm wraps up, per the Hi-Res NAM. I'm interested if the RGEM will also tick south or if the NAM is on drugs. Pack, I'm not sure why it's not showing up. Is it showing up for others? It's a WeatherBell map, but they don't seem to mind people posting maps every now and then (free advertisement). It's showing up for me. Nope. Says access forbidden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gritsnc Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 The entire 8th grade class at my daughters school is supposed to leave at 6am Tuesday morning for Washington, D.C. and return late Friday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Surface temperatures are insane. We're almost all in the teens as the storm wraps up, per the Hi-Res NAM. I'm interested if the RGEM will also tick south or if the NAM is on drugs. Pack, I'm not sure why it's not showing up. Is it showing up for others? It's a WeatherBell map, but they don't seem to mind people posting maps every now and then (free advertisement). It's showing up for me. I see it fine, strange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 The entire 8th grade class at my daughters school is supposed to leave at 6am Tuesday morning for Washington, D.C. and return late Friday night. Uh Oh, that ain't happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I see it fine, strange. It might be because I'm on my phone, but I can see other wxbell maps that others post. That's weird. Oh well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 0.5-0.6". I think it's all-frozen, but it's admittedly close at the start. There looks to be an area of up to 0.9" just the north of Winston-Salem and Greensboro, though. At the start, the maps show the 32F isotherm in southern Guilford County, for reference. It has the look of a raging sleet storm (1-2" of accumulation maybe?) with maybe snow at the end. EDIT: NCSNOW, if you take 850s verbatim and assume there's no sneaky warm nose, GSO gets 1-2" of pure snow or so with more to the north. It's a different story down in Randolph County, though, as the 850 freezing line takes longer to get down there. I wouldn't be surprised if there's a warm nose, though. Thanks neighbor. Just what I need to cap of the season a cold 20 mile screw job lol. Seriously wouldn't mind seeing a couple of rounds of excitement before day after day of Mosquitos and 70 degree dp's return. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I re-uploaded it on Photobucket, so it might work now. I'm still unsure about whether to get excited about this storm or not. It seems promising, but I'm concerned about a last-minute north trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 RGEM looks a little north of it's 18z run, that will calm the masses in the MA thread. Edit: Hard to tell, looks a tick colder though, need better maps to be sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 The NAM is seriously colder even down here, by the tune of 7C(!) at the surface this run. That is comparing hour 48 of the 18z run and hour 42 of the 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I re-uploaded it on Photobucket, so it might work now. I'm still unsure about whether to get excited about this storm or not. It seems promising, but I'm concerned about a last-minute north trend. Got it now. That's sick! Cut it by 4 and it's still going to cause issues with the temperatures dropping into the teens. Folks might be caught off guard with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I would say for sure at this timeframe we cannot discount the nam due to its superiority in regards to low level cold events as has been discussed previously in this forum. Its good to see the nam trend colder which is about right seeing as how the models usually underplay cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Trends are really good with that cold shot getting stronger and stronger. This would be a pleasant surprise, especially if we can double it up on Thursday. Nice closing act for winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Here is hr 48 of the 00z RGEM. It looks wet. I'm having a hard time gathering more than that with these horrible B&W maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 They've tossed sleet into our forecast for Monday night in the latest point forecast down here in Clayton, SE of Raleigh. Rain and sleet likely before 9pm, then a chance of sleet between 9pm and 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 21. Blustery, with a north wind 16 to 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Looks like the surface low tracks just south of myrtle beach on the rgem. Hard to tell on the black and white maps. Don't know how that compares to other runs but it seems pretty far south. Looks more and more like there will be a couple hours of frozen precip. With extremely low temperatures on its heels. Fun times! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 This is a post frontal system. Meaning the cold and precip is behind the actual SLP and front. I think the sleet soundings from Nam tonight might be too warm. If it does what I'm thinking here... no precip in the warm sector. Then the surface front crashes through with temp drops from the Surface up to 925. Once the cloud deck comes in thicker and starts precipitating temps around 850 crash below freezing. Ultimately limiting the amount of rain,ice, sleet. Some of the snow amounts maybe pretty accurate with regards to amounts. Once that band becomes established across VA tomorrow should be pretty much all snow entering into NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Looks like the surface low tracks just south of myrtle beach on the rgem. Hard to tell on the black and white maps. Don't know how that compares to other runs but it seems pretty far south. Looks more and more like there will be a couple hours of frozen precip. With extremely low temperatures on its heels. Fun times! It looks roughly the same, keep forgetting it's still 36 hours before it gets to us, could swing either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Hard to tell with the black and white maps but looks like a SLP over Florence or somewhere near I-95 with a 1033 high sliding across the Great Lakes. That would have to be good for a good chunk of North Carolina (I-40 and North) and obviously VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 GFS should go a little north, the PV isn't pressing down as hard and the southern fort is stronger, should be a big weenie MA run. Maybe a good chunk north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 GFS should go a little north, the PV isn't pressing down as hard and the southern fort is stronger, should be a big weenie MA run. Maybe a good chunk north. I thought it would probably go north. Another theme before a big storm is just when you think the models are converging on an outcome, they split again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Yeah, the GFS is worse. It's not a good run for ROA, either. Eh, we'll see. It's not horrible, though... still a good bit of IP for some areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I thought it would probably go north. Another theme before a big storm is just when you think the models are converging on an outcome, they split again. We are splitting hairs, really but 25-50 miles is big for them and it's big for us. All winter storms end up further N last 24-36 hours, for whatever reason. I am out, we see the trend from the "good" models tonight (RGEM/GFS) to tick north, I would expect Euro/UK to do the same. The GFS almost gets SNE back in the game, i bet they somehow get 4-6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 2" at best for ROA per the GFS, but NAM says 12"+. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Yeah, the GFS is worse. It's not a good run for ROA, either. Eh, we'll see. I don't know why the DC crowd wants this north, all this does is warm them to mix more, the south runs they are more snow. Be funny if this ticks north another 50 miles tomorrow and they get a big sleet storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 2" at best for ROA per the GFS, but NAM says 12"+. Wow. I would go with the Euro and RGEM at this range, NAM is probably overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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