Buddy1987 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 It's a little late to be looking at ensembles, really, but the 18z GEFS is a little south of the op. They're almost identical, though. That's a beautiful track for my neck of the woods. I hope this plays out and comes to fruition. Agree with some people a watch may be forthcoming tomorrow morning for ROA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 just saw the in house model of the local met here and it has a good slug of snow sleet a freezing rain moving through monday night and tuesday morning.... i have to believe this will have alot of attenion come tommorow if the 0z is still showing this.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 So to recap for those of us just joining the party. It looks like most of the models are trending wetter further south which puts the northern half of nc at around .4" qpf, about half of that could be frozen based on the latest modeling. Nam, gfs, hi-res nam, SREF, Ukie, gefs, euro, and eps all seem to be on board. Looks like rgem says no right now. I haven't looked at the wrf models. One more tick south or quicker arriving cold air could make this legit. A tick back to the north would make this marginal or even a non issue below the VA boarder. Does this sound about right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 So to recap for those of us just joining the party. It looks like most of the models are trending wetter further south which puts the northern half of nc at around .4" qpf, about half of that could be frozen based on the latest modeling. Nam, gfs, hi-res nam, SREF, Ukie, gefs, euro, and eps all seem to be on board. Looks like rgem says no right now. I haven't looked at the wrf models. One more tick south or quicker arriving cold air could make this legit. A tick back to the north would make this marginal or even a non issue below the VA boarder. Does this sound about right? Good summary. Wow for GSO... http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=NC&stn=KGSO&model=gfs&time=current&field=prec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Good summary. Wow for GSO... http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=NC&stn=KGSO&model=gfs&time=current&field=prec I looked at the Cobb bufkit data for the 18z gfs. It has about a tenth of an inch more sleet instead if freezing rain. I'm guessing with the cold air being so strong, there would be more sleet than frz. I hope!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DueUCMe Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 The local TV met here in Greensboro is forecasting a 27 degree drop in temps Monday into Monday night (49 down to 22) and has thrown in the chance of significant ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 There was a similar storm in the late '80s that featured rain changing to sleet and temps dropped to 21 degrees during the height of the event. It was a back-door front as well. We saw about an inch of sleet IMBY. Can't remember the date...... (1986 or '87 possibly) Someone else might remember it. I think you may be thinking of Feb 1987. That event started as rain over upstate SC with temps in the upper 30's that fell down to 24 IMBY with around 1.5 inches of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Was the February 1987 storm spoken of this one by chance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 This is an odd storm, don't recall anything like it, but it's still cold chasing moisture. Even if we get 0.25" of precip that's sleet it will be a little under inch of sleet. Kind of our high end, will see, starts in 36 hours, if 0z runs have it tonight I wouldn't be surprised if RAH throws up WWA's for northern counties. It is cold chasing moisture for sure, but this has a better chance since the cold air is coming from the northeast CAD like instead of over the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Was the February 1987 storm spoken of this one by chance? That's the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Was the February 1987 storm spoken of this one by chance? Yep, that's the one I was referring to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Interesting, guys. Thanks! That was an epic sleet storm in Raleigh that I've heard talked about before. BTW, the 00z NAM is coming in colder and further south so far. We'll see how that develops through the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Trends do sound like they keep getting better and better for some winter action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Agreed 5h at 36 is def more southwest with the shortwave comparimg 42 hr image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 39 hr image equals complete rakeage for ROA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 New SREF plumes are out. The probability of sleet is higher than rain or freezing rain for gso. .45" qpf. By the way, Robert has a nice entry on his Facebook page with his accumulation map. Says we could end with a few hours of sleet, frz like the models are showing. Can't post it from my phone but I'm sure someone else will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 39 hr image equals complete rakeage for ROA Indeed. The surface freezing line is pretty close to beating the precip on this run for N NC. Looks to be a warning-criteria ice storm for GSO if it's ZR rather than IP. A good portion of N NC changes over to a bit of snow based on 850s... (of course there may be a warm nose in there somewhere) The Mid-Atlantic forum is melting down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 WxSouth3 hours ago My snowfall forecast. Major Icestorm northern Ark/mid and west TN, moderate northern MS. Major snowstorm eastern KY , West VA and central to north VA and Maryland, Delaware, southern Jersey. Ends as snow and sleet in southern VA and norther...n NC, could be significant sleet and snow there. Tight gradient in central Virginia, from several inches snow to nearly a foot. Charlottesville, north and west is a jackpot zone for snow totals. Could be some 10" or greater amounts.See More 88Like · · Share Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Well, look what we have here... Usually, the Instant Weather Maps clown isn't too overdone, though I'm honestly thinking a lot of that is sleet. I hope I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Sounds like the nam ticked south by 25 miles and is colder! Could be trending to something that will have at least a moderate impact for those north of I-40 instead of the VA/NC border as earlier runs were showing. Still not too confident but whatever falls will stick around because the temps are going to plummet causing travel issues and school closings. Unless a 50 mile shift back to the north on tomorrow's runs. Well see...it's definitely getting interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 The MA thread is quite funny tonight. DC get's 1" of QPF on the NAM but 0.35" of it is rain, maybe a a little freezing rain/sleet and than they get about 0.65" precip as snow, so should be good ratio's, probably 7-8" of snow, great storm for them. For people NW of there it's going to be a long night. For I-40 north it looks to be several hours of sleet, nice little storm. Hopefully other models hold. ROA and RIC look great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Sounds like the nam ticked south by 25 miles and is colder! Could be trending to something that will have at least a moderate impact for those north of I-40 instead of the VA/NC border as earlier runs were showing. Still not too confident but whatever falls will stick around because the temps are going to plummet causing travel issues and school closings. Unless a 50 mile shift back to the north on tomorrow's runs. Well see...it's definitely getting interesting. The storm starts tomorrow night, not much time for any big shifts, north or south, I think tonights 0z runs will have this nailed, IMO. If I could pick anywhere to be it would be ROA to Fredericksburg, still would rather be in DC than RIC but will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 superjames1992, on 01 Mar 2014 - 9:28 PM, said: Well, look what we have here... Usually, the Instant Weather Maps clown isn't too overdone, though I'm honestly thinking a lot of that is sleet. I hope I'm wrong. Soundings look sleety for eastern parts of the VA jackpot area. Pesky warm nose hangs on for a little longer than area to the west, so I suspect their totals are a little overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 How far out is the hi-res nam. It was more bullish for sleet than the regular nam at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 How far out is the hi-res nam. It was more bullish for sleet than the regular nam at 18z. It's a little colder (at least at the surface) than the 12-km NAM out to hr 36. The precip field is about the same. At hr 39, the precip reaches GSO and we're already below freezing, so it might be an all-frozen event. The surface freezing line is around 50 miles south of the 12 km NAM. Simulated radar implies we're about to get crushed with something. EDIT: P-type maps on WeatherBell would imply raging sleet storm rather than ZR for most of us. I would say the overall precip field is a smidge further south on the Hi-Res overall. DCA is a little closer to the line, though they're still around 6". Baltimore is more like 3-4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 When have we (or anyone else) had a significant winter storm trend in our favor to the SOUTH? Pretty amazing if it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 BIG FROSTY is getting snowed on from hr 42-45, it appears as raging sleet turns to snow. This is a great run. Looks like the whole of N NC might change over by the end. Of course, I'm a bit skeptical of using the Hi-Res NAM in general. Surface freezing line is down past the NC/SC border by hr 45... looks like a bit of icing down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 James what's the total Qpf at GSO? And is it all frozen. Thanks on the wife's ipad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 RGEM is the model that I think is most important, it was better than the NAM's for our past 2 events, in about 20 mins we will find out if this south thing is for real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 James what's the total Qpf at GSO? And is it all frozen. Thanks on the wife's ipad 0.5-0.6". I think it's all-frozen, but it's admittedly close at the start. There looks to be an area of up to 0.9" just the north of Winston-Salem and Greensboro, though. At the start, the maps show the 32F isotherm in southern Guilford County, for reference. It has the look of a raging sleet storm (1-2" of accumulation maybe?) with maybe snow at the end. BTW, here's a fun clown map from the 00z Hi-Res NAM (entertainment only). This has to be overdone, though. EDIT: NCSNOW, if you take 850s verbatim and assume there's no sneaky warm nose, GSO gets 1-2" of pure snow or so with more to the north. It's a different story down in Randolph County, though, as the 850 freezing line takes longer to get down there. I wouldn't be surprised if there's a warm nose, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.