Buddy1987 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Yep, and NAM south again, this thing can only go so much more south. I don't recall a SS system getting pushed ESE like this, yesterday I thought the models weren't handling this right and this would tick north but we are within 48 hours now. That cold air really means business. You can see how sharp it is as it comes in to our north in upstate NY and stretching back to MN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 JB posted just today he is going with the 6z NAM, the JMA from last night and the Euro from 2 days ago, so essentially his snow map is jackpotting central PA to the NE…he must know something... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Single digits get all the way to the VA/NC border.. Close to 0 in ROA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Yep, and NAM south again, this thing can only go so much more south. I don't recall a SS system getting pushed ESE like this, yesterday I thought the models weren't handling this right and this would tick north but we are within 48 hours now. The 18z Hi-Res NAM looks even better than the regular NAM. Wintry precip all the way down to the SC border at hr 51. The clown map puts down 3-5" for the Triad, though I don't think a lot of that is snow. I'd guestimate about 1-2" is, however. EDIT: And maybe 1" of IP prior to that 1-2" of SN? (depending on soundings, of course) JB posted just today he is going with the 6z NAM, the JMA from last night and the Euro from 2 days ago, so essentially his snow map is jackpotting central PA to the NE…he must know something... Perhaps... or he's wishcasting the model that hammers NYC and Philly. The 06z NAM was way, way north. It seems like this is going to be a true nowcasting event where we monitor how far south the cold air gets. We usually struggle with cold air chasing the moisture, but this cold air is coming from due north and won't have to get over the mountains, so that may not be as much of an issue as we're used to. We shall see. It will be interesting with the massive temperature fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The 18z Hi-Res NAM looks even better than the regular NAM. Perhaps... or he's wishcasting the model that hammers NYC and Philly. The 06z NAM was way, way north. I really would like to see the RGEM buy into this too, although the 48 hour RGEM is still a little iffy, just like to see if a couple hours of sleet would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Single digits get all the way to the VA/NC border.. Close to 0 in ROA. Disc what you thinkin man? Blacksburg just put the watch out and its a county north of us in Botetourt lol I really think in regard to alerting the public they should of put one out for us seeing as how this storm is evolving quite rapidly and wasn't expected. Just my honest opinion. Im thinking at least 3-6 right now although if it keeps trending south aka 18z nam then itll go up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Buddy1987, on 01 Mar 2014 - 3:57 PM, said:Buddy1987, on 01 Mar 2014 - 3:57 PM, said:Disc what you thinkin man? Blacksburg just put the watch out and its a county north of us in Botetourt lol I really think in regard to alerting the public they should of put one out for us seeing as how this storm is evolving quite rapidly and wasn't expected. Just my honest opinion. Im thinking at least 3-6 right now although if it keeps trending south aka 18z nam then itll go up. I can tell they're still playing it safe. This is going to be a hard forecast for Blacksburg and I can see it being a high bust potential somewhere in their CWA. Any shift, north or south, can have big changes on what happens here. Heck, even a delay or a sooner push of the cold air could cause some major problems. I personally like where we sit currently and hoping the south trend continues. Few runs ago MD and PA were jackpotting and now they're right on the edge. I agree with your idea of 3-6 as of now. If this thing keeps coming south, I'd say we could possibly double that 3-6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The RGEM has the SLP right over GSP at 48, if it slides ESE from here it might be good northern NC, this has to be good for ROA, I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The RGEM has the SLP right over GSP at 48, if it slides ESE from here it might be good northern NC, this has to be good for ROA, I would think. Yeah, here's the hr 54 panel. Interesting..... Looks great for our Roanoke friends. Wytheville, Hillsville, Blacksburg, etc. look good. (Valid Monday evening at 7 PM) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Yeah, here's the hr 54 panel. Interesting..... Looks great for our Roanoke friends. (Valid Monday evening at 7 PM) Wow, that is south. Looks like it jackpots Richmond. This event will tick north, it happens with every event, but that is really south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Wow, that is south. Looks like it jackpots Richmond. This event will tick north, it happens with every event, but that is really south. Holy crap! That is south! Any further south and it will be a miller A. Lol Anyway, I posted in the MA forum that the last second nw shift isn't guaranteed due to the strength of this cold air and the timing of it. However, I'm not thinking that it will be much for us south of the VA border. But one more jog to the south would really put the northern half of nc in business. Might be some surprise delays and closings on Tuesday morning regardless with the cold air coming in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Portsmouth Weather Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Holy crap! That is south! Any further south and it will be a miller A. Lol Anyway, I posted in the MA forum that the last second nw shift isn't guaranteed due to the strength of this cold air and the timing of it. However, I'm not thinking that it will be much for us south of the VA border. But one more jog to the south would really put the northern half of nc in business. Might be some surprise delays and closings on Tuesday morning regardless with the cold air coming in. Thats what I was thinking as well. This has trended south due to the strength of the cold air, which subsequently shreds the low as it moves east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Holy crap! That is south! Any further south and it will be a miller A. Lol Anyway, I posted in the MA forum that the last second nw shift isn't guaranteed due to the strength of this cold air and the timing of it. However, I'm not thinking that it will be much for us south of the VA border. But one more jog to the south would really put the northern half of nc in business. Might be some surprise delays and closings on Tuesday morning regardless with the cold air coming in. Yeah, we aren't get 4" of snow or anything, but a few hours of sleet with maybe a dusting of snow wouldn't be to much of a miracle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WSNC Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Looking at the EURO ensemble mean for Winston-Salem. All but one member has wintry precip for Monday event. The mean snowfall accumulation (assuming all wintry precip is snow and it won't be) is just under 4". BTW, the mean through hour 240 is 7", so basically 3" for the Thursday event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WSNC Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 For Roanoke VA- Euro mean is 7" and operational is 8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Looking at the EURO ensemble mean for Winston-Salem. All but one member has wintry precip for Monday event. The mean snowfall accumulation (assuming all wintry precip is snow and it won't be) is just under 4". BTW, the mean through hour 240 is 7", so basically 3" for the Thursday event. Yeah, the mean is about 3.25" here at KGSO, though I don't know if it's all snow (doubtful). The mean for the latter event is about 3", as well. Every single member gives us wintry precip over the next 10 days. Pretty cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 18z GFS ticked south, going to be a lot of sphincter clenching going on in the MA thread.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 37 ensemble members give KAVL some form of wintery accumulation on the 3rd. Mean looks to be a meager .5" but I am pulling for you guys to my east! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I suspect Monday might turn out to be the main event for some... at least with a backdoor front it doesn't have to creep over the mountains! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 18z GFS ticked south, going to be a lot of sphincter clenching going on in the MA thread.... Hahaha! How can this thing continue to tick south and we still only get a few token sleet pellets? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 18z GFS ticked south, going to be a lot of sphincter clenching going on in the MA thread.... Was just about to comment on that. GFS dry dry dry for northern areas of Mid Atlantic. Never underestimate COLD it will bite you in the a** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Hahaha! How can this thing continue to tick south and we still only get a few token sleet pellets? I don't think that is all we will get if it keeps coming south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Raleigh to Greensboro looks decent to me, south of I-40 looks to get somewhat dry slotted http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/data/gfs/18/gfs_namer_057_precip_p36.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Hahaha! How can this thing continue to tick south and we still only get a few token sleet pellets? This is an odd storm, don't recall anything like it, but it's still cold chasing moisture. Even if we get 0.25" of precip that's sleet it will be a little under inch of sleet. Kind of our high end, will see, starts in 36 hours, if 0z runs have it tonight I wouldn't be surprised if RAH throws up WWA's for northern counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Raleigh to Greensboro looks decent to me, south of I-40 looks to get somewhat dry slotted http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/data/gfs/18/gfs_namer_057_precip_p36.gif Not if it keeps trending south. This has bust written all over it. If current trends hold, would not be surprised to see watches go up for southern VA or northern NC tomorrow....... For the rest of us in NC, this looks to be a flash-freeze, with any left over moisture on the roads quickly freezing. Could be advisories posted for black ice come Tuesday morning in the areas that get below freezing quickly. Those watches that are posted for Penn and NYC might have to be cancelled. Tonight and tomorrow's runs should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 This is an odd storm, don't recall anything like it, but it's still cold chasing moisture. Even if we get 0.25" of precip that's sleet it will be a little under inch of sleet. Kind of our high end, will see, starts in 36 hours, if 0z runs have it tonight I wouldn't be surprised if RAH throws up WWA's for northern counties. There was a similar storm in the late '80s that featured rain changing to sleet and temps dropped to 21 degrees during the height of the event. It was a back-door front as well. We saw about an inch of sleet IMBY. Can't remember the date...... (1986 or '87 possibly) Someone else might remember it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 This is an odd storm, don't recall anything like it, but it's still cold chasing moisture. Even if we get 0.25" of precip that's sleet it will be a little under inch of sleet. Kind of our high end, will see, starts in 36 hours, if 0z runs have it tonight I wouldn't be surprised if RAH throws up WWA's for northern counties. I dont think its cold chasing. Its an anafrontal system. SLP and surface front are going to be ahead of the precip shield and cold coming in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncweather Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Watching this one closely, I am thinking my area wont get much snow at this point but might see some freezing going on. Thanks everyone for the updates and information. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 mhx has sleet in my forecast for monday afternoon and monday night and possible freezing drizzle.... so its looking like the roads are going to be slick come tuesday morning. this event reminds me of the november storm that gave us snow.. i was fishing on the pier at the beach it was sunshine and mid 60s the clouds rolled in and the wind picked up to 15 to 20 mph and temps dropped to 27 within 4 or 5 hours and it started snowing pretty good... it didn't last long but it was enough to cover the roads and put a good coating on the elevated surfaces Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 It's a little late to be looking at ensembles, really, but the 18z GEFS is a little south of the op. They're almost identical, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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