tarheelwx Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 We need a good long thread about what cad really is. I don't really see this situation as an event having anything to do with cad. True cad doesn't feature colder temps in Rocky Mount than what you see at GSP. For a later discussion I guess. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 The cold air is coming down from the north, and even northeast. There's not going to be any cold air "spilling over the mountains" in this situation. I know that. Which it was a mistake putting the borders in red. But read your comment and mine look at the map those are clearly borders to the surface. Also the key word CAD Yes there is "spilling over the mountains" and "banking against mountains" because its happening right now as the HP and LP move in a s/e direction. You mean moisture?? Cold air is sourced from the Northeast for this event. Yeah ok continue?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 3, 2014 Author Share Posted March 3, 2014 We need a good long thread about what cad really is. I don't really see this situation as an event having anything to do with cad. True cad doesn't feature colder temps in Rocky Mount than what you see at GSP. For a later discussion I guess. TW Very good point! It is very unusual.! The call map that was put out by someone on here, shows the possible mix down to the Florence /MB area and quite a dip into E SC, but stops at NC/SC border out west! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 We need a good long thread about what cad really is. I don't really see this situation as an event having anything to do with cad. True cad doesn't feature colder temps in Rocky Mount than what you see at GSP. For a later discussion I guess. TW[/quote A cad. builds in as HP slide into position in the NE, the winds/ air mass always cools from ne to sw as the HP funnels cold air down the east side of the apps. As the ne wind continuously banks air up against the eastern escarpment the air rises and cools even more and a cad air mass hangs around the longest right up against the mountains. It's always the last place is dislodges. But it's first affects are always from ne to sw across our state as it builds in. Tomorrows event you will be able to see temps drop in a ne to sw progression. Actually more of a north to south progression as the backside of the surface low pulling out will be what funnels the cold air down as opposed to a HP building into New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 UK held, looks good for ROA for sure. Looks cold 850's look to be down I-40 at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I know that. Which it was a mistake putting the borders in red. But read your comment and mine look at the map those are clearly borders to the surface. Also the key word CAD Yes there is "spilling over the mountains" and "banking against mountains" because its happening right now as the HP and LP move in a s/e direction. What does the bolded even mean? I legitimately cannot figure out what you are trying to say. It doesn't really matter, but the mountains to my west are blocking the cold air from reaching me in Hickory, NC. Your cold air in Roxboro is going to filter down to you from the north and east, but not against the immediate lee of the Apps. I'm too far south and west in NC to get any meaningful effects from this cold air before all the precipitation is past me. You're in a fortunate enough situation this time to get the cold air before me, which is incredibly unusual. If this were a classic CAD situation, my location would be colder than yours. If the cold air is "spilling over the mountains" anywhere, it would be much further north, perhaps in PA as Mack mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Watching precip type radar on the regional loop is something special tonight. You have TN now getting pummeled with ice and a line of severe running all the way down into the GOM. Look at the temps in Louisiana. You go from 36 to 65-70 degrees over about a 30 to. 40 mile piece of real estate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dntjr Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 The front has a real punch to it with some big temperature contrasts; flew from Columbus, OH to CLT between 8 and 9 with almost a 50 degree difference between the two locations (17 F in OH and 64 F in CLT). Lot of lift on this one as well- pretty substantial turbulence otw down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 It looks like all schools in the WFMY Greensboro coverage area plan on going as scheduled tomorrow. The only exception is Patrick County VA, going on a two hour delay. That's just to give them more time in the am to assess the situation. Smart move IMO. Could get interesting tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Still sitting at 53 here. Hasn't moved down in quite a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 The 00z Euro is further south with the precip field compared to 12z (but not wetter in NC... about the same). N NC ends as snow. DC gets a lot less than last run (still a good ~6" hit, though)... ROA/RIC get raked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 06z NAM is further south. Most of NC gets 0.4-0.6" QPF. We'll see what happens in the morning. Good night! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 HRRR goes nuts with precip later today right down I-40, not sure it's right though, if it's 12z run has it it may be onto something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Just posted in the obs section but man its gone from 45 like 20 min ago to 39.7 that temp is moving fast! Blacksburg has us down to 9 tonight. I am extremely worried about road conditions later on its gonna be a nightmare out there poured rain all night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 HRRR goes nuts with precip later today right down I-40, not sure it's right though, if it's 12z run has it it may be onto something. Lets hope so as this might be the last ride of the season. Sitting at 57 in Asheboro. Saw a worker walk in with shorts and a sweatshirt on. He has no clue of how hard the temps are gonna crash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 They didnt treat the roads here and if the latest modeling is correct then my drive home tonight at 7pm may be rough lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spidyr2k Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 They didnt treat the roads here and if the latest modeling is correct then my drive home tonight at 7pm may be rough lol. Not much point to brine the roads as the rain will just wash it away before precip changes over(assuming it will). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Thinking southeast VA/ NE NC may really do better than expected with this one: http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/southeast-region/weather-radar?play=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 The way the radar looks this is setting up further south than orginally thought?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 HRRR goes nuts with precip later today right down I-40, not sure it's right though, if it's 12z run has it it may be onto something. Robbert seems to think NC will benefit from ULL enhancement that the short term models were starting to pick up on last night. WXSOUTH @WxSouth 7h RAP continues to trend south. Upper low in OKC is powerful. Comma head hits most of NC Monday very hard...much harder than thought #ncwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 packfan98, on 03 Mar 2014 - 07:07 AM, said: Robbert seems to think NC will benefit from ULL enhancement that the short term models were starting to pick up on last night. WXSOUTH @WxSouth 7h RAP continues to trend south. Upper low in OKC is powerful. Comma head hits most of NC Monday very hard...much harder than thought #ncwx Yeah, he commented that RDU could see an inch or more of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 3, 2014 Author Share Posted March 3, 2014 Our local met just said we will see an hour of sleet befor the precip ends this afternoon! There is no way there will be any precip here when the cold air arrives! If I see two sleet pellets , I'll eat my shorts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Yeah, he commented that RDU could see an inch or more of sleet.I think Robert said that late last night. If I'm not mistaken, hasn't the RAP mostly dropped that idea? TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I think Robert said that late last night. If I'm not mistaken, hasn't the RAP mostly dropped that idea? TW Yes He did say that late last night, IDK if RAP has dropped it or not? but radar looks horrible to the west... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 35 and just starting rain/snow mix. Heaviest precip moving out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 If im not mistaken the precipitation will be dropping down from the north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Well, all the school systems around Wake have announced they are closing early, but no word from Wake yet. Matthew East just warning folks on facebook that the roads could be messy and treacherous this afternoon and tonight. Trying to decide if I should leave work at noon to be safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I think Robert said that late last night. If I'm not mistaken, hasn't the RAP mostly dropped that idea? TW The RAP and HRRR have another band developing that would affect NC later today, whether that's correct or not not sure. They have it south of RDU right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Also, the ULL is still back in west TN. That's the feature Robert was talking about, not this overrunning coming through. Atleast I think that is what he talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 The way the radar looks this is setting up further south than orginally thought?!Yeah, like far enough south that there will be no precip when the cold air arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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