The 3/3 30 degree temp change sleet/ice event for NC

[mackerel_sky]

This looks like a legit threat for N NC! It may catch people off guard with temps in the 60s to start out! It doesn't matter how warm it is in the morning, if temps drop to the 20s, roads will get slick, if precip is around.

[Northern Foothills Snowman]

What time of day is the cold front supposed to come through NC ?

[Buddy1987]

Guys I think there needs to be some more looking into this at least for parts of southwest va at the minimum. I haven't been on in a couple weeks but this sure looks interesting. Both NAM and the GFS have the 850 line south of me as the big slug of moisture comes thru my neck of the woods. Looking at the NAM 2m temp it has the minus 10 line south of me as well. I did not expect this at all to be quite honest. Anyone with thoughts?

[FLweather]

I say its a legit threat.

 

Things seem to be trending and pushing south with this cold and moisture. Roughly the northern half of the state looks good except towards the sandhills/sc line.

 

Interesting enough nam has come round to the idea of rain to zr to snow.

 

This mornings section from Rah

 

 

GIVEN A FASTER PROGRESSION OF THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED
STORM TRACK SOUTHWARD...THE TRAILING AND MOST SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL
WAVE ACCOMPANYING THE PARENT DEAMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT
WILL SPREAD HEAVIER ANAFRONTAL PRECIPITATION FARTHER SOUTH THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST INTO THE RAH CWFA...WITH AS MUCH AS A QUARTER TO
HALF INCH OVER THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN...TO A TENTH
TO QUARTER INCH OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER. WHILE MOST OF THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS RAIN...IT IS PROBABLE THAT NORTHERN
PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN LOCATIONS CHANGE TO A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET...AND POSSIBLY EVEN SNOW GIVEN FORECAST
SATURATION INTO THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE ICE NUCLEATION ZONE...AS
THE COLD AIR SURGES SOUTHWARD. WHILE A CHANGE FROM RAIN TO FREEZING
(AND FROZEN) PRECIPITATION ARE RARE AND NOT CLIMATOLOGICALLY
FAVORED...MOST OF THOSE NON-EVENTS OF COLD AIR CHASING THE MOISTURE
ARE CHARACTERIZED BY COLD AIR UNSUCCESSFULLY CROSSING THE
APPALACHIANS BEFORE THE MOISTURE DEPARTS...AS OPPOSED TO HAVING
ALREADY CROSSED THE MOUNTAINS AND SURGING SOUTHWARD IN BACKDOOR
FASHION...AND ACTUALLY ENHANCING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. SOME LIGHT
ACCRUAL AND/OR LIGHT ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND REFERENCE
WILL EB ADDED TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

 

 

Going to be an insane day... temps near 50 early morning falling into the mid 20s around noon or after. That would be flash freezing with any precip falling. NWS going for a low 18 Tues morning might be too warm. 

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

12z GFS shifted south about 50 miles with the precip and cold air. Looks like the high is coming in stronger than recent runs. Southern VA looks to get pounded and if the south trend continues, more of NC will get in the game as well. While everyone has been following the mid/late week event, this one has crept up on us and it bears watching as well. Good call on starting a thread Mack.

[WSNC]

This has been trending colder for a while now. The models are really catching up with the magnitude of the arctic air. This has the chance to catch a lot of people off guard based on trends and where the NWS started with the Monday forecast.

[BullCityWx]

12z: 

 

Date: 60 hour AVN valid 0Z TUE 4 MAR 14
Station: KCLT
Latitude: 35.22
Longitude: -80.93
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W
mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
0 1000 148
SFC 993 206 -2.8 -6.0 79 3.2 -3.9 34 17 270.9 271.3 269.7 277.6 2.46
2 950 552 -3.5 -5.3 87 1.9 -4.1 32 32 273.7 274.1 271.8 281.1 2.70
3 900 988 3.3 1.5 88 1.8 2.4 16 21 284.9 285.7 280.6 298.2 4.73
4 850 1453 4.2 3.3 94 0.8 3.8 321 10 290.5 291.5 284.2 307.0 5.73
5 800 1945 2.1 1.5 96 0.6 1.8 273 12 293.4 294.4 284.9 309.0 5.35
6 750 2464 -0.9 -1.8 94 0.9 -1.3 261 19 295.6 296.5 284.9 308.9 4.48
7 700 3012 -3.2 -7.0 75 3.8 -4.7 261 32 299.0 299.6 284.9 308.8 3.24
8 650 3597 -5.4 -13.4 53 8.0 -8.1 260 40 302.9 303.3 285.1 309.5 2.09
9 600 4221 -8.6 -20.9 36 12.4 -12.0 259 46 306.2 306.4 285.4 310.1 1.20
10 550 4890 -12.5 -30.0 22 17.5 -16.1 259 52 309.3 309.4 285.8 311.3 0.58
11 500 5610 -18.2 -38.2 16 19.9 -21.2 261 55 310.8 310.9 285.9 311.8 0.28
12 450 6386 -24.6 -44.9 13 20.2 -26.8 262 56 312.3 312.3 286.4 312.8 0.16
13 400 7234 -29.5 -52.2 9 22.7 -31.2 254 72 316.6 316.6 287.7 316.9 0.08
14 350 8173 -36.2 -57.8 9 21.6 -37.2 249 84 319.9 319.9 288.8 320.1 0.04
15 300 9226 -43.6 -58.8 17 15.3 -44.1 246 94 323.9 324.0 290.0 324.1 0.05
16 250 10429 -51.5 -60.1 35 8.6 -51.7 248 94 329.5 329.5 291.6 329.7 0.05
17 200 11860 -56.4 -64.0 38 7.5 -56.6 253 92 343.4 343.4 295.1 343.5 0.04
18 150 13674 -58.6 -73.9 12 15.3 -58.9 255 93 369.1 369.1 300.4 369.1 0.01
19 100 16192 -63.5 -80.8 8 17.3 -63.7 253 70 405.1 405.1 305.9 405.1 0.01
TRP 0
WND 0

[BullCityWx]

Extracted GFS data shows a temp at KCLT of 56 at 18z and 24 at 0z. 

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

 

12z: 

 

 

Date: 60 hour AVN valid 0Z TUE 4 MAR 14
Station: KCLT
Latitude: 35.22
Longitude: -80.93
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W
mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
0 1000 148
SFC 993 206 -2.8 -6.0 79 3.2 -3.9 34 17 270.9 271.3 269.7 277.6 2.46
2 950 552 -3.5 -5.3 87 1.9 -4.1 32 32 273.7 274.1 271.8 281.1 2.70
3 900 988 3.3 1.5 88 1.8 2.4 16 21 284.9 285.7 280.6 298.2 4.73
4 850 1453 4.2 3.3 94 0.8 3.8 321 10 290.5 291.5 284.2 307.0 5.73
5 800 1945 2.1 1.5 96 0.6 1.8 273 12 293.4 294.4 284.9 309.0 5.35
6 750 2464 -0.9 -1.8 94 0.9 -1.3 261 19 295.6 296.5 284.9 308.9 4.48
7 700 3012 -3.2 -7.0 75 3.8 -4.7 261 32 299.0 299.6 284.9 308.8 3.24
8 650 3597 -5.4 -13.4 53 8.0 -8.1 260 40 302.9 303.3 285.1 309.5 2.09
9 600 4221 -8.6 -20.9 36 12.4 -12.0 259 46 306.2 306.4 285.4 310.1 1.20
10 550 4890 -12.5 -30.0 22 17.5 -16.1 259 52 309.3 309.4 285.8 311.3 0.58
11 500 5610 -18.2 -38.2 16 19.9 -21.2 261 55 310.8 310.9 285.9 311.8 0.28
12 450 6386 -24.6 -44.9 13 20.2 -26.8 262 56 312.3 312.3 286.4 312.8 0.16
13 400 7234 -29.5 -52.2 9 22.7 -31.2 254 72 316.6 316.6 287.7 316.9 0.08
14 350 8173 -36.2 -57.8 9 21.6 -37.2 249 84 319.9 319.9 288.8 320.1 0.04
15 300 9226 -43.6 -58.8 17 15.3 -44.1 246 94 323.9 324.0 290.0 324.1 0.05
16 250 10429 -51.5 -60.1 35 8.6 -51.7 248 94 329.5 329.5 291.6 329.7 0.05
17 200 11860 -56.4 -64.0 38 7.5 -56.6 253 92 343.4 343.4 295.1 343.5 0.04
18 150 13674 -58.6 -73.9 12 15.3 -58.9 255 93 369.1 369.1 300.4 369.1 0.01
19 100 16192 -63.5 -80.8 8 17.3 -63.7 253 70 405.1 405.1 305.9 405.1 0.01
TRP 0
WND 0

That appears to be a "freezing rain with a trace of sleet" sounding all the way.

[BullCityWx]

That appears to be a "freezing rain with a trace of sleet" sounding all the way.

 

I'd tend to agree with that. Maybe oscillating with heavier echoes. 

[BullCityWx]

For some reason, the cold air appears to filter in quicker along 77 and east. 

[FLweather]

For some reason, the cold air appears to filter in quicker along 77 and east. 

In RAH disco they mentioned a backdoor cold front.

 

That certainly looks like the case looking at the 10m maps.

[sparkync]

For some reason, the cold air appears to filter in quicker along 77 and east.

back door fronts can do this, I have seen this afew times in the past years, well when I was younger

[BullCityWx]

back door fronts can do this, I have seen this afew times in the past years, well when I was younger

 

I just kinda assumed it wasnt a backdoor front. Normally, backdoor fronts dont cool us off by 30 degrees in 3 hours. This is pretty impressive. 

[FLweather]

Just for fun.

 

Last nights GGEM.

 

Todays Run.

 

 

 

 

Todays 12z runs for 3/3/14

 

WS/GSO

 

Nam goes from near 57 around 10am to near 32 around 1pm to near 23 around 7pm. Rain to ZR to Sleet/snow

GFS goes from near 50 around 7am to near 40 around 1pm to near 22 around 7pm. Rain to sleet/snow

 

RAH

Nam goes from near 56 around 10 am to near 32 around 1 pm to near 20 around 7pm. Rain to ZR to Sleet/snow

GFS goes from near 50 around 7am to near 35 around 1pm to near 21 around 7pm. Rain to sleet.

 

 

Insane at the temp drop. =+ 30 degrees in a 9-12 hour time span.

[Solak]

Per MeteoStar, we (KJNX) go from 58° Monday at 15z to 25° at 00z, bottoming out at 18° Tuesday morning.

[BullCityWx]

What a crazy event just north of us in VA. RIC looks to get a good snowfall with temps falling into the teens(!) by 0z on Tuesday.

[Brick Tamland]

Wow, this looks like a real chance for a surprise event. That would be a crazy swing in weather in the same day.

[packbacker]

Euro is very nice for I-40 north, 4" in Roxboro, 1-2" in triangle, could be sleet.

[Buddy1987]

Does anyone have info pertaining to the 12z euro? Mid-Atlantic guys so wrapped up in there backyards they cant post anything but DC and BWI info.

[Brick Tamland]

This looks a lot more realistic than later in the week. Now the Euro is going to start saying all rain for lat

[superjames1992]

The UKMET is probably a big hit.  It's almost certainly too far south, but still.

[packbacker]

Does anyone have info pertaining to the 12z euro? Mid-Atlantic guys so wrapped up in there backyards they cant post anything but DC and BWI info.

6-8" for ROA on Euro, starts as rain flips to snow and a lot of it.

[BullCityWx]

Cold as all hell for ROA too, temps in the lower negative digits. 

[superjames1992]

12z Euro clown map totals:

 

Greensboro: 3.2"

Winston-Salem: 2.6"

Raleigh: 2.1"

Roxboro: ~5.0"

Reidsville: 4.3"

Rocky Mount: 3.7"

 

It's arguable how much of that is snow (all of it certainly isn't, though six-hour panels with such quickly-changing temperatures make it difficult), but the Euro definitely wants to show wintry precip in N NC.  It shows some <0.5" amounts down to CLT.

[packbacker]

12z Euro clown map totals:

Greensboro: 3.2"

Winston-Salem: 2.6"

Raleigh: 2.1"

Roxboro: ~5.0"

Reidsville: 4.3"

Rocky Mount: 3.7"

It's arguable how much of that is snow (all of it certainly isn't, though six-hour panels with such quickly-changing temperatures make it difficult), but the Euro definitely wants to show wintry precip in N NC. It shows some <0.5" amounts down to CLT.

Storms usually tick north last 24 hours but lets hope not in this case. We sure don't have luck on our side so not holding my breath.

[WSNC]

Does anyone have info pertaining to the 12z euro? Mid-Atlantic guys so wrapped up in there backyards they cant post anything but DC and BWI info.

Looks like between 8 and 9" to me for your area, but quickly rising to much more just to your north. As it looks now your in a good spot for both events.

[Buddy1987]

^{Hey guys really appreciate the info}

[superjames1992]

The 12z Euro Control Run and the Ensembles are farther south than the operational.... argues for more wintry precip in N NC.

 

The 18z NAM is further south than its prior runs.  Baltimore weenies are starting to worry about being too far north.  The run hammers central VA and gives DC 6-10".  Looks like a few tenths of freezing rain, sleet, and perhaps snow to top it off for N NC.  Typically, the NAM is a bit amped up and biased northward at this range, too, isn't it?

 

NYC gets like 1-3"...  So much for a big storm there.  Oh, how fortunes change.

[packbacker]

The 12z Euro Control Run and the Ensembles are farther south than the operational.... argues for more wintry precip in N NC.

 

Yep, and NAM south again, this thing can only go so much more south.  I don't recall a SS system getting pushed ESE like this, yesterday I thought the models weren't handling this right and this would tick north but we are within 48 hours now.