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Central PA & The Fringes - March 2014 Pt. I


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Anyone see channel 8's predictor model? What model is that? It is an absolute smashing lol.

Zak Haha it's part Nam your favorite model :-)

I give up on this storm....if I wake up Monday morning and see snow. I guess I will have a cup of coffee and thank the model Gods!!!

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Here's what I am thinking, snowfall-wise.

 

post-2758-0-79940400-1393719134_thumb.pn

 

yea, I have the amounts squashed for northeaster and north-central PA. but the trends I have been seeing say squashed from not as moisture to work with as the arctic front drops down. but south of i-76/70, I do like the sleet possibilities, maybe an inch or more south of the commonwealth. but at least there shouldn't be much of a freezing rain aspect to this system.

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GFS

f06.gif

Current

pmsl.gif?1393719819933

Model has pressure way too strong up there.

This is a very interesting point, Zak. A weaker low would argue for a slower FROPA/less suppressed system. It'll be interesting to see if guidance corrects, or if the short-range models will pick up this feature better.

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Let it tick the whole way to NC at this point....dont even want 1-3" of damn nuisance snow....sitting here watching yankees phillies...bring on the sun and warmth...it was a good winter

I was joking but may turn out this thing ends up as a southern snow storm

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true, it is nuts. but I am wondering if the culprit is the 500hPa short wave this evening is a lot flatter and more parallel to the flow compared to what the models were predicting a couple of days ago. Because it does seem that way, according to the 00Z analysis anyway. Anyone agree on that?

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