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Central PA & The Fringes - March 2014 Pt. I


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Question for the mets...how could the models for two runs show the northern solution then lose it so fast?

 

 

I think what I said yesterday has a lot to do with it...

 

Very excited about Monday's potential. The last shortwave that's a player is still in the Pacific, though, but once that comes ashore (tomorrow evening), the models should generally have a good idea of how this will play out.

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Maybe some hope for Spring in a few weeks...

 

quoting Tombo from PhillyWx. These were the ECM weeklies run yesterday.

 

week 1
-AO/+nao/neutralish to slightly negative pna/+epo gives way to -epo
mean trof over western lakes, mostly negative h5 anoms, with a couple normal to slightly abv normal h5 anoms as the trof dive into the center of the country

week 2
weak se ridge to start/+ao/+nao/ -epo that retrogrades towards the aleutians/ general neutral pna that goes negative towards the end
coldest week out of the bunch, with neg h5 anoms over us the whole time

week 3
+ao/+nao/-pna/neutralish epo, mean ridge over aleutians
weak to moderate southeast ridge the whole week.

week 4
pretty much ditto of week 3 with maybe a little weaker se ridge.
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Bottom line is the storm is trending south and will continue to do so until Richmond, Virginia is the jackpot. By the end of tomorrow nothing meaningful will fall anywhere in Pennsylvania. Not really a bad thing, ready for spring now after a great winter up until March. A big storm would have been okay to go out with a bang but a nuisance snow most can do without. Goodnight all. Here's to a 150 mile miracle northern shift start with 06z runs! Haha

 

To the contrary, where the models show the storm now is probably not too far from where it'll end up being.

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To the contrary, where the models show the storm now is probably not too far from where it'll end up being.

You are probably right. I guess I just feel it will continue to drift south Atleast through 12z runs tomorrow. Just astonished the march 3 system went south and now this system has gone south. It's been a great month for Virginians and Marylanders.

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Wow.  I am stunned.  Not one comment in 12 hours from anyone?  I thought for sure someone had started a new thread since we're approaching 1000 posts.  I guess everyone is worn out over all of the bickering that took place around here yesterday.

 

I am formulating a simple plan to address the geography issue of this forum.  I've been thinking about it for weeks actually.  Yesterday's disintegration of discourse only confirmed what I already was thinking.

 

More later...

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