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Central PA & The Fringes - March 2014 Pt. I


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It is not just one person that does it, last week when a few runs of the euro looked great for the northern 1/2 of PA the UNV-IPT-AVP crowd was making model statements as if it was a great run for everyone even though it was showing all rain south of the turnpike.  With earlier storms when a run shows a crush job for the LSV some of the posters there make comments like "crushing run for our area".  The problem is "OUR AREA" is from the Mason Dixon line to the NY border.  It is very rare that any run for any storm is going to be good for the entire area so comments like that are kinda IMOBY centric and misleading to others in the forum.  Maybe I am alone, but I find it kind of annoying and makes it harder when quickly scanning the thread to get a real idea of what is going on.  Instead of saying "its a great run" just say its good for south of the turnpike, or north or whatever but be more specific.  If I am the only one that feels this way, then disregard. 

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It is not just one person that does it, last week when a few runs of the euro looked great for the northern 1/2 of PA the UNV-IPT-AVP crowd was making model statements as if it was a great run for everyone even though it was showing all rain south of the turnpike.  With earlier storms when a run shows a crush job for the LSV some of the posters there make comments like "crushing run for our area".  The problem is "OUR AREA" is from the Mason Dixon line to the NY border.  It is very rare that any run for any storm is going to be good for the entire area so comments like that are kinda IMOBY centric and misleading to others in the forum.  Maybe I am alone, but I find it kind of annoying and makes it harder when quickly scanning the thread to get a real idea of what is going on.  Instead of saying "its a great run" just say its good for south of the turnpike, or north or whatever but be more specific.  If I am the only one that feels this way, then disregard. 

 

Maybe we need to make a northern pa and southern pa thread. 

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I disagree, but whatever. For people complaining they want warm and spring, not sure why they are complaining about not getting snow. lol. 

I want a big storm OR nice/warm weather.  I am a little frustrated that I am getting neither. I would still get excited over a foot of snow, which certainly is possible with this system if it phases instead of splitting.  Generally cold dry or warm wet miserable weather has been the trend.  The one upside to this is if the 12z globals are right and the trough is going to split and fail to phase, then the whole pattern is likely to break down and we warm up.  The longer term cold was predicated on this storm phasing and bombing out which pulled the trough into the east behind it and then forced a further south track from the next system and set off a chain of events that kept us cold.  Without the first domino falling the trough pulls back into the central US and we get at least a week of nice weather it looks like. 

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Still, this is Central PA and recently the "fringes", whatever the hell that means. The day we start breaking up into "north and south", when do we break off into "east" and "west"? At what point do we have a forum for "I-83 west to I-81" and "I-99 east to I-81" and "Northern terminus of U.S. 522 in Selinsgrove" and "This is where U.S. 522 leaves Pennsylvania at Dott or Warfordsburg"?

 

My favorite would be the "Palmyra from Horstick to Cherry St" thread. A real hotbed of action.

 

And I nearly came in my pants the other day when it was 60. I'm officially past this cold nonsense.

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Still, this is Central PA and recently the "fringes", whatever the hell that means. The day we start breaking up into "north and south", when do we break off into "east" and "west"? At what point do we have a forum for "I-83 west to I-81" and "I-99 east to I-81" and "Northern terminus of U.S. 522 in Selinsgrove" and "This is where U.S. 522 leaves Pennsylvania at Dott or Warfordsburg"?

 

My favorite would be the "Palmyra from Horstick to Cherry St" thread. A real hotbed of action.

 

And I nearly came in my pants the other day when it was 60. I'm officially past this cold nonsense.

 

Agree. 

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However if you could limit all storm threats/conversation  to just Cumberland County, it would make it easy, thanks in advance. :whistle:

 

What part of Cumberland county? Which thread are you referring to? I'm a big hit over on the "Rossmoyne Business District" thread, the "12th street between Erford Rd and Market St" thread, the "Wagoner's Gap Rd to College St Intersection" thread, and the "never-ending construction that makes going to Weis a big PITA" thread.

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What part of Cumberland county? Which thread are you referring to? I'm a big hit over on the "Rossmoyne Business District" thread, the "12th street between Erford Rd and Market St" thread, the "Wagoner's Gap Rd to College St Intersection" thread, and the "never-ending construction that makes going to Weis a big PITA" thread.

:D lmao

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I didn't mean to try to break up the thread or start a debate, I just feel posts like "its a great run" don't add much and often are misleading as its not a great run for all of us.  Instead we can actually take a few more seconds and add something of value like discuss what the run shows. 

 

After 2 runs in a row where models trended strongly towards a more phased solution, today the models took a huge step back towards the idea of 36 hours ago with a split of the energy and too much being left behind to really get the storm up the east coast.  I would put the NAM into the split camp too, it goes nuts with the WAA frontrunning wave but that looks a little crazy to me without must upper level support.  Only the SREF still shows a phased consolidated bomb solution that we want for a big storm into central PA.  I still feel either enough energy comes out and this bombs out up the coast or if the energy really does split it probably continues to trend more and more suppressed just like the early march threat right to the end and it ends up well south of our area.  I still think the models might be having trouble with this kind of thing, and historically its the kind of setup where models will have issues with the phasing then suddenly at 48 hours BOOM but it is hard to ignore the seasonal trend of storms remaining progressive.  I guess its a long winded way of saying I am conflicted right now about which way to go, and feeling lucky I don't have to make any official forecast. 

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I didn't mean to try to break up the thread or start a debate, I just feel posts like "its a great run" don't add much and often are misleading as its not a great run for all of us.  Instead we can actually take a few more seconds and add something of value like discuss what the run shows. 

 

After 2 runs in a row where models trended strongly towards a more phased solution, today the models took a huge step back towards the idea of 36 hours ago with a split of the energy and too much being left behind to really get the storm up the east coast.  I would put the NAM into the split camp too, it goes nuts with the WAA frontrunning wave but that looks a little crazy to me without must upper level support.  Only the SREF still shows a phased consolidated bomb solution that we want for a big storm into central PA.  I still feel either enough energy comes out and this bombs out up the coast or if the energy really does split it probably continues to trend more and more suppressed just like the early march threat right to the end and it ends up well south of our area.  I still think the models might be having trouble with this kind of thing, and historically its the kind of setup where models will have issues with the phasing then suddenly at 48 hours BOOM but it is hard to ignore the seasonal trend of storms remaining progressive.  I guess its a long winded way of saying I am conflicted right now about which way to go, and feeling lucky I don't have to make any official forecast. 

 

Don't feel bad. You made a valid point. 

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Exactly. This is The CENTRAL PA forum which runs from NY border to the MD line. This isn't the MBY forum. Its not hard to be more specific.

Central pa which covers like a ton of area. Every storm impacts the north or south differently. It's not imby it's two totally different areas. Just saying.

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Central pa which covers like a ton of area. Every storm impacts the north or south differently. It's not imby it's two totally different areas. Just saying.

They also great differ on how they impact you and me, you and State College, me and State College, all of us from Potter, etc. Just being more specific on observations fixes any issues.

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there is a reason that there are 10 climate divisions in PA... weather varies greatly not only just north and south but east, west, northwest, southeast, etc... all that is being asked is to simply add some geographic references for those who may be only reading posts and can't view model data... can we move any further discussion on this stuff to the banter thread where it likely belongs?

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This is why I stated about 12 hours ago I wasn't going to get sucked into this "storm" until 12 hours out just for the wild swing in the models from one cycle to the next.  Its just not worth getting all worked up over something we cant control in the first place.

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This is why I stated about 12 hours ago I wasn't going to get sucked into this "storm" until 12 hours out just for the wild swing in the models from one cycle to the next.  Its just not worth getting all worked up over something we cant control in the first place.

Like Button ^

 

We need to keep the forum just the way it is. Someone is always gonna get the short measurement on the yardstick with these storms.

Been a long winter!! I think most of us is ready for spring.

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