EasternUSWX Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Maybe the JMA will be right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Per the MA forum euro gets the 1 inch qpf to the border. 850s solid and ratios high. Blowing and drifting down here will be epic. I could see 12 to 15 for Shrewsbury. I still think the qpf shield will expand further north to give Harrisburg a good pounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Per the MA forum euro gets the 1 inch qpf to the border. 850s solid and ratios high. Blowing and drifting down here will be epic. I could see 12 to 15 for Shrewsbury. I still think the qpf shield will expand further north to give Harrisburg a good pounding. I'm sure your house will somehow get 20" anyways, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Lol for my sanity I hope not! Wife has constant snow meltdowns and wonders why are we always crushed this season. She wants to move! Wife's rants lol! "Channel 8 showed Harrisburg they didn't get this, hunt valley has nothing like this why us, this sucks, it's always snowing blah blah." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Per the MA forum euro gets the 1 inch qpf to the border. 850s solid and ratios high. Blowing and drifting down here will be epic. I could see 12 to 15 for Shrewsbury. I still think the qpf shield will expand further north to give Harrisburg a good pounding. Ha your location you better double that You got my room ready? I could enjoy seeing couple feet of snow :snowing: The way the models have been ticking south....I don't look for them to make to much of a move back north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Updated snow map. Final call tomorrow am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I don't know if the storm will tick north or not per say, but generally the qpf shield tends to be more expansive then initially modeled come game time with most of these systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Hate to say it, but if it looks like this system won't produce for us, I wouldn't be too worried. The 12z ECMWF and GFS/GEFS all show us entering a very active storm period once the MJO becomes favorable. I don't think this winter is very close at all to being over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 SREFS are pretty nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Jma is ok but it's another huge shift south. Trends! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Standing by my 3-5" call for MDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Updated snow map. Final call tomorrow am. Someone on the panhandle of WV is gonng get 10" - 15" out of this otherwise it looks fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity08 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Any real time obs? Anything that we could possibly compare to the models to see how their stacking up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Updated snow map. Final call tomorrow am. Any reason why you are pretty bullish in northern PA? Im in your 3-6" and im questioning if i'll even see 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Any reason why you are pretty bullish in northern PA? Im in your 3-6" and im questioning if i'll even see 2. Already stated this. Ratios will be higher and I don't base my forecast right off models. Think bands will come enough north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Already stated this. Ratios will be higher and I don't base my forecast right off models. Think bands will come enough north. I think the ratios thing might be overplayed because the second wave has the high ratios and that is looking like a big miss. Might not even get much into southern pa. Nam looks like its going even further south. Trends today are bad. Weaker second wave and stronger pv influence. I'm about to pull the plug and stop paying much attention I think hope is fading north of the turnpike for anything significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I think the ratios thing might be overplayed because the second wave has the high ratios and that is looking like a big miss. Might not even get much into southern pa. Nam looks like its going even further south. Trends today are bad. Weaker second wave and stronger pv influence. I'm about to pull the plug and stop paying much attention I think hope is fading north of the turnpike for anything significant. NAM. lol. Never mention that model again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The nam is the exact thing we should all fear. Heavy precip with the first wave, but very warm. Second wave doesn't make it into pa. I really feel like a lot of people are t accounting for the fact that the temps aren't really going to drop until the precip cuts off. My call would be 3-5 south of the turnpike, 2-4 just north and up around I-80 1-3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 NAM. lol. Never mention that model again. It hasn't been consistent, but is really showing along the same lines of the other models right now. A warmer front end thump, and nothing in the second wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Energy is all there, so that excuse is gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 NAM is quite interesting... Suggesting wave 1 may actually be the major player for those north of PA/MD border... Unfortunately for SEPA it is too warm and is rain only for the cold air to supress the 2nd wave down south of DC. Don't think it is right but hopefully wave 1 trends with more moisture.. Heck, it gives me 3-4" all the way up here near I 80 whereas Philly sees Less than an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 If this somehow misses completely south it will be just wow. 2 days ago this was a monster of NY line areas up to Boston, now this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 When was the last time it was so cold in March we had to worry about suppression? Maybe we will get ours in April. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I think southern tier does fine, north of there well eh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 RGEM still nice for southern tier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Wow Nam showing pretty much a miss for Philly.....unreal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Oh baby RGEM come to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 RGEM doesn't look right. Its too supressed with wave 1 and too far north with the 2nd part... Most of the snow comes in Monday after midnight - morning when NAM suggests it to come in Sunday evening - Midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 RGEM doesn't look right. Its too supressed with wave 1 and too far north with the 2nd part... Most of the snow comes in Monday after midnight - morning when NAM suggests it to come in Sunday evening - Midnight. RGEM is more in line with Euro and GFS. NAM is the one that doesn't like right. Ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 GGEM/RGEM was the first to show the south solution I am going to stick with it for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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