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Central PA & The Fringes - March 2014 Pt. I


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A several hour period of strong winds mid-late evening last night kept temperatures in the upper 40s to near 50 for most of the overnight and helped to finally start hitting the stubborn snowpack hard on our mainly north facing yard and surrounding woods. 

 

Overnight model runs have continued the trend away from much snow and toward mainly rain for the commonwealth as we now look to generally remain on the warm side of what should be a very dynamic and intense storm system. The far northern tier still could see several inches of wet snow but that will likely be after spending time as rain or mix and coupled with bad timing (March sun) and marginal temps. Track of the low now being progged generally through southern PA will effectively shut off main precip before the much colder air arrives in the rest of the area and keep the overall heavier precip stripe in northern PA and beyond. Gonna be a big one for the parts of NY state that don't often see much of the synoptic events. BUF has an area of 18-24 in their grids in and around Rochester surrounded by a general 10-18 for a good majority of BUF's CWA. 

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Temperatures around here have been really bizarre this morning... MDT fell to 35 last night while my low at the house was 43... currently Capital City airport currently at 55, MDT at 46, and Lancaster at 35!!

Wow, I'm surrounded by 40's and 50's but I'm at 38 and cloudy at the moment.

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NAM has been hinting at a deformation zone that develops tomorrow with heavy snow for a time from maybe State College east/north as the major low tomorrow departs with cold air behind it. May be good for a few inches especially for Bradford/Susquehanna/Wayne counties. The northern border with NY should be good for a few inches of snow as the low pulls colder air down.

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After such a cold start to 2014 it is incredible that we are actually approaching record highs in some places today... 62 degrees at MDT as of 1PM ranks 12th warmest temperature for March 11 in the current 126 year record... The record high of 69 ties March 1st as coldest record highs for Harrisburg in the whole month of March - so historically March 11 has not been a very warm day 

 

post-285-0-22461100-1394558224_thumb.jpg

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also... SPC upgraded the outlook for tomorrow to "Slight Risk" for a number of us

 

day2probotlk_1730_any.gif

SPC AC 111710   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK     NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   1210 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014   VALID 121200Z - 131200Z   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE   ATLANTIC...   ...SYNOPSIS...   WATER VAPOR LOOPS IMPLY A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY EMERGING   OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS...AND THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD   AND REACH THE MID MS VALLEY BY THE BEGINNING OF D2/WED. AS IT DOES   SO...IT WILL PHASE WITH A NRN-STREAM SHORTWAVE IMPULSE DIGGING SSEWD   FROM ONTARIO AND MANITOBA. THE RESULTING PERTURBATION WILL BE A   POTENT...HIGH-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL ADVANCE EWD   ACROSS THE ERN UNITED STATES. HIGH-MAGNITUDE...LARGE-SCALE UPWARD   MOTION PRECEDING THIS TROUGH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY STRONG UPPER   DIVERGENCE ATTENDANT TO A COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE AND   INTENSIFYING LLJ OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST. THIS WILL   SUPPORT THE ENEWD/NEWD DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION OF A FRONTAL   CYCLONE FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO THE ATLANTIC WATERS OFF THE   SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST. A STRONG COLD FRONT TRAILING SSW OF THE   CYCLONE WILL SWEEP EWD ACROSS THE SERN STATES AND MID   ATLANTIC...WHILE STRONG POLEWARD MASS FLUXES PRECEDING THE CYCLONE   ALLOW A WARM SECTOR TO EXTEND INTO PORTIONS OF ERN PA AND NJ.    ...THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC...   THE AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BECOME   MARGINALLY UNSTABLE -- E.G. MLCAPE AROUND 300-600 J/KG -- DURING THE   AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO THE COMBINATION OF /1/ AT   LEAST PARTIAL INSOLATION IN SOME AREAS IN THE WAKE OF   EARLY-DAY...WARM-ADVECTION-ENCOURAGED CLOUDS/SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH   THE STRENGTHENING LLJ...AND /2/ STRONG NWD FLUXES OF RELATIVELY   HIGHER THETA-E AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE   MIDDLE 50S. THE NRN EXTENT OF THE WARM/BUOYANT SECTOR WILL BE   MODULATED TO SOME EXTENT BY DOWNWARD-DIRECTED SENSIBLE HEAT FLUXES   WITHIN THE SFC LAYER ATOP THE ONGOING SNOW PACK IN NRN PA AND NRN   NJ. REGARDLESS...DIURNALLY ENHANCED BUOYANCY SHOULD ALLOW   THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY ALONG THE COLD   FRONT AS IT ADVANCES FROM SERN OHIO/ERN KY INTO WRN WV AND WRN PA BY   MID-DAY...WITH THIS ACTIVITY QUICKLY SPREADING EWD/NEWD THROUGH THE   AFTERNOON.   WITH THE EXIT REGION OF A 70-90-KT H5 JET CORE OVERSPREADING THE   WARM SECTOR BUOYANCY ABOVE A SWLY LLJ INCREASING TO 50-60 KT...WIND   PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LOW-TOPPED...ORGANIZED CONVECTION.   THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME ORGANIZED INTO FAST MOVING   QUASI-LINEAR SEGMENTS WITH EMBEDDED LEWP STRUCTURES INVOF THE COLD   FRONT. STRONG CONVECTIVE MOMENTUM TRANSPORT WILL SUPPORT THE   POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...WITH THIS POTENTIAL BOLSTERED BY   THE STRONG CROSS-FRONTAL...SYNOPTIC PRESSURE RISE-FALL COUPLET.   STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR -- E.G. AROUND 30-40 KT OF 0-1-KM BULK    SHEAR -- WILL SUPPORT SOME POTENTIAL FOR LINE-EMBEDDED MESOVORTICES   TO PRODUCE TORNADOES.   THE GREATEST SVR POTENTIAL WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE ERN PANHANDLE OF   WV INTO NRN VA...CNTRL/WRN MD...THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...AND   S-CNTRL PA...WHICH MAY HAVE THE GREATEST OPPORTUNITY TO EXPERIENCE   PRE-FRONTAL INSOLATION. THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR A MORE   WIDESPREAD SVR-WIND EVENT TO TAKE PLACE IN THESE AREAS...POTENTIALLY   WARRANTING HIGHER SVR PROBABILITIES IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS.   HOWEVER...SUCH POTENTIAL WILL BE PREDICATED ON THE DEGREE OF   INSOLATION-ENHANCED STEEPENING OF LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...FOR WHICH   SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST   AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE.   ..COHEN.. 03/11/2014
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Btw, any met with thoughts on how warm we could get tomorrow before the bottom falls out?

will depend on exact track of low and if there is any clearing ahead of cold front or not... mid to upper 50s is certainly possible with some 60s further south before a 30-40 degree drop

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA

311 PM EDT TUE MAR 11 2014

PAZ017-024-033-121200-

/O.NEW.KCTP.WW.Y.0015.140312T1900Z-140313T1200Z/

CLEARFIELD-CAMBRIA-SOMERSET-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DUBOIS...CLEARFIELD...JOHNSTOWN...

SOMERSET

311 PM EDT TUE MAR 11 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM

EDT THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER

WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM

EDT THURSDAY.

* TIMING...RAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL CHANGEOVER TO SNOW BY LATE

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF

PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE DURING THE TRANSITION

FROM RAIN TO SNOW. SNOW WILL END BY THURSDAY MORNING.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO SNOW COVERED

ROADS. REDUCED VISIBILITY IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. POSSIBLE

FLASH FREEZES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND

THURSDAY MORNING.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 20 MPH...BECOMING NORTH-NORTHWEST 15 TO

25 WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...MID 40S WEDNESDAY MORNING...FALLING RAPIDLY INTO

THE MID 20S BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND BOTTOMING OUT IN THE SINGLE

DIGITS NEAR ZERO THURSDAY MORNING. WIND CHILLS 15 TO 20 BELOW

ZERO FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

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Winter Weather Advisory up for Altoona/Johnstown/Somerset area and expanding to the north and to the west... Other than terrain enhanced snows beyond the system's departure I still just don't think surface temperatures will get cold enough quick enough for the snow to accumulate much on the backside of the system before the dry air cuts off the precip reaching the ground

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Winter Weather Advisory up for Altoona/Johnstown/Somerset area and expanding to the north and to the west... Other than terrain enhanced snows beyond the system's departure I still just don't think surface temperatures will get cold enough quick enough for the snow to accumulate much on the backside of the system before the dry air cuts off the precip reaching the ground

No WWA for Altoona

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