psuhoffman Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Just looked at eps and yuck. Takes low right over us 850s blast way up into ny. Rain signal. My fear here is I do believe the more amped solution and the trough axis seems too far west and the thermal boundary too north for that. A lot of time left but I don't like that the more amped the solution is the more of a rain solution because I think more amped wins here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 PBP 0z EURO from NYC Forum: 00 Z ECM Data & Summary 126 Hrs One low over W Alabama and One low over OK .. Warm from PA south -no precipitation in the area 132 Hrs 991 MB low over N Arkansas 1000 low over E KY and 1007 Mb low south of the FL panhandle still no precipitation in the area. Temperatures starting to cool off from N PA south...138 hrs 990 low over W VA and 1006 low off Haterras and 992 low over W TN ..Light QPF knocking on the door144 hrs 991 MB low over E KY with moderate to heavy QPF in Western PA and light to moderate eastern PA and NJ Temperatures warm upper 30s to lower 40s150 Heavy QPF across E PA and Northern NJ including NYC ..989 mb low over W VA Temps low 30s inland and along the coast ..long island mid 30s 156 NYC dry slotted ..Heavy QPF in Western PA Lighter QPF E PA .. 985 MB low just W Of DE..Temperatures lower 30s 162 hrs Very heavy QPF SE PA Heavy QPF E PA and all of NJ Including NYC ..983 MB east of NJ Temperatures 20s inland to around 30 along the coast..168 hrs 980 E of Cape Cod Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Models kinda trending away from monster storm they had earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Turning into a pretty nice day here with full sunshine. I think we should easily hit 40F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Euro is still a major snowstorm but it's out on its own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Euro is still a major snowstorm but it's out on its own.is it? I glanced at the txt output for mdt and it seemed like mostly rain to me. Maybe I should look again more closely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 EURO is a big hit for Central and Northern PA. Lancaster south is likely wet. MDT might be close to the rain/frozen line. Probably rain there too. Early yet. as we saw last week nothing is firm until at least 24 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 is it? I glanced at the txt output for mdt and it seemed like mostly rain to me. Maybe I should look again more closely Ah, yeah, should have clarified it is for areas north of 80. Either way, it's alone with its solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Euro is still a major snowstorm but it's out on its own. On its own? Euro Ens and GGEM Ens support a similar solution. The GFS has been bad all winter. Im already getting the snow blower ready. EDIT : Alright yes, its on its own as far as a monster but it isnt like the other models arent showing something interesting... GFS is a solid snowfall especially for EPA./ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Looking at coop storm reports for this area I'm starting to realize this is the worst spot for someone who loves big snows (18"+). I had 6 of those in 6 years living in northern md but it seems they almost never happen here. Even in historic storms the totals are just kinda mediocre. Coastals seem to crush the lsv thv lns area and inland runners crush western pa and the poconos but I'm not sure if any solution gives the area around mdt to mui a 20"+ storm. Seems climo here is just nickel and dime city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Looking at coop storm reports for this area I'm starting to realize this is the worst spot for someone who loves big snows (18"+). I had 6 of those in 6 years living in northern md but it seems they almost never happen here. Even in historic storms the totals are just kinda mediocre. Coastals seem to crush the lsv thv lns area and inland runners crush western pa and the poconos but I'm not sure if any solution gives the area around mdt to mui a 20"+ storm. Seems climo here is just nickel and dime city. I-99 east to maybe I-81 just isn't a favorable place for major snow totals especially over the last decade, for the reasons you cited- coastals are too far east and midwestern storms are too far west. Also, the SWFE type events that nail the I-90 corridor are often sleetfests south of the PA border. It seems like back in the 1990s there were more frequent coast huggers and heavier totals west into PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
r-ville Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Looking at coop storm reports for this area I'm starting to realize this is the worst spot for someone who loves big snows (18"+). I had 6 of those in 6 years living in northern md but it seems they almost never happen here. Even in historic storms the totals are just kinda mediocre. Coastals seem to crush the lsv thv lns area and inland runners crush western pa and the poconos but I'm not sure if any solution gives the area around mdt to mui a 20"+ storm. Seems climo here is just nickel and dime city. Mostly small events and few winters to keep cold afterwards - this one the obvious exception. 2010 twin terrors of Feb, 2003 PDII, SOTC 3/93, Blizzard of 96, Blizzard of 78, PDI = all recorded 18+ inches, just to name a few. Burke did a breakdown and his top ten have to go back pretty far to get to ten and record the "heaviest" snow axis from MDT-RDG. Not regularly, but often enough. You just need a larger base sample to make a fair comparison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Looking at coop storm reports for this area I'm starting to realize this is the worst spot for someone who loves big snows (18"+). I had 6 of those in 6 years living in northern md but it seems they almost never happen here. Even in historic storms the totals are just kinda mediocre. Coastals seem to crush the lsv thv lns area and inland runners crush western pa and the poconos but I'm not sure if any solution gives the area around mdt to mui a 20"+ storm. Seems climo here is just nickel and dime city. The last time we have had 18" or more here has to be 93 so dont think its just your area. Its been forever since i have seen a 12"+ storm (the feb storm a few years ago was close but not quite) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 We're in that category to 2001kx lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 GFS says to LSV........ Next Winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 This is just the weather weenies need to drive up their likes. one of the locals posted an euro snowfall map. And local media is throwing around blizzard of 93 comparisons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 GFS says ........ Next Winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 18z GFS suddenly looks alot like the Euro does, just a tad warmer and slighty further north with the 850 low track than the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 I think after the last "storm", it should be obvious that anything can happen. Anything from the low cutting Lake Michigan to passing hundreds of miles southeast is on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 I in all serious must give a thumbs up also, ready for spring. Almost can see my lawn now, definitely after this weekend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 The main key is the GFS trended towards the Euro with the phasing.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Mostly small events and few winters to keep cold afterwards - this one the obvious exception. 2010 twin terrors of Feb, 2003 PDII, SOTC 3/93, Blizzard of 96, Blizzard of 78, PDI = all recorded 18+ inches, just to name a few. Burke did a breakdown and his top ten have to go back pretty far to get to ten and record the "heaviest" snow axis from MDT-RDG. Not regularly, but often enough. You just need a larger base sample to make a fair comparison. a few of those storms you listed even missed the area I am now, about 30 miles northeast of mdt, with heavy snows and a lot of them had their max zone somewhere else. I get the real feeling this is not an area that sees the bullseye very often. Lots of fringes. I got used to being the bullseye for my latitude a lot where I was before. We are looking to relocate either to the poconos or along 83 near the pa md border if I stay in Baltimore for work. That area near 83 is a perfect example. Their avg might be a little lower then here but I bet their odds if a 12 or 18" snow are significantly higher. Poconos of course would be the best place for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Huge improvement on eps from last night. Slp south of pa instead of right over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 I think after the last "storm", it should be obvious that anything can happen. Anything from the low cutting Lake Michigan to passing hundreds of miles southeast is on the table. And the GFS does exactly that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 GFS looks good. If you are rooting for no snow and spring, sorry should have elaborated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 GFS looks good. Make sure you are looking at the correct run... No it doesn't lol, at least not for those who want a lot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 GGEM's also not looking good...remember which model was the first to crush the last threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Gefs looks great though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Euro trends toward the weaker solution. I think we all know how this will end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Euro trends toward the weaker solution. I think we all know how this will end. ugh. Nothing really wants to amp this year. The h5 look has really backed off the last 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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