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Central PA & The Fringes - March 2014 Pt. I


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GFS/NAM increased amounts down here so idk about that.

That is deceiving. Most of what the gfs and nam depict has already fallen, and that has fallen as mixed or rain. The second waive maybe gets the .25 line to the border, but I'd think at best 2-4 is likely. Harrisburg I would think would be lucky to top two inches.

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That is deceiving. Most of what the gfs and nam depict has already fallen, and that has fallen as mixed or rain. The second waive maybe gets the .25 line to the border, but I'd think at best 2-4 is likely. Harrisburg I would think would be lucky to top two inches.

 

Who knows, we'll see. 

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WHP has also lowered amounts. 2-4 inches from the turnpike down to the MD line.

 

AFD from CTP indicates that they plan to keep warnings in place for the southern tier.

 

At this point I do feel a downgrade to an advisory might better serve the border counties than a warning, as it looks like any 6" with this second wave might be confined to near the MD border, and possibly more like south of the border (I-68 & I-70 corridors in MD). Mixing had also reared it's ugly head with this first wave today in the Sus Valley, so that didn't do much towards adding any snow before the main wave. I feel guilty enough about my map this morning that I'm putting out a rare update to it (below)... and it might still be optimistic. While I have no problem with highlighting a region of greatest probabilities for heavy snow in advance, it's a good hard lesson in why you don't throw snow maps with discrete totals out in social media/etc 3-4 days in advance. This was due actually, this winter around here had been playing pretty well into the hands of the S&S and EPAweathers of the world to this point, and now we're facing what will likely end up being our biggest negative bust of the season to date in our area. 

 

Anyways the new map.. should be noted that these totals I have try to include whatever already fell earlier today, which mainly affects western PA, where 2-3.5 inch reports were pretty prevalent in Allegheny, Westmoreland, and Washington counties with the first wave per the Pit PNS statement. Additional snowfall with the second wave will be mainly focused south of Pittsburgh  

 

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