burgertime Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 12z GFS is closing off @69. This could get interesting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 @72 ARK and NW AL is getting hammered with snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 12z GFS is closing off @69. This could get interesting! Interesting coming through, but thermals look horrible! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Interesting coming through, but thermals look horrible! It looses it's steam @75. Not too strong, but I do like what the GFS is doing. If it can get to a 2 or 3 contour low there is enough of a cold air feed to the north that it would work it's magic. That's a lot to ask but I could see this getting stronger and staying stronger for longer. It's about in the perfect position for folks in the SE too. If only that 1036 High could stick around longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 This one is no where near over yet. That was a much better run for the gfs with the low closing off and the high to the north trending stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Interesting coming through, but thermals look horrible! Look at the thickness being pulled down though even with it's not being closed off. That 548 line is way south. We just need it strong enough to pull in 540 south and we would be in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Regarding the potential CAD portion fwiw, the high has strengthened on the 12Z GFS vs.today's 0Z GFS as of the key time of 12Z 3/6 by 3 mb from 1034 to 1037 mb. Do we have a strengthening trend in the high that will continue? That's about the only hope for the CAD portion of 3/6-7 to somehow come back to life. I'll be following this closely although the Miller A also needs to come back to life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 This one is no where near over yet. That was a much better run for the gfs with the low closing off and the high to the north trending stronger. It looks like it's trying to close off again @87 . If the Euro comes back around I'll be very excited for this. Usually on the ULL's the GFS leads the way though which is why this really has my interest. Alas though it's just one run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Closes off again @93 about 200 miles SW of CLT near Myrtle Beach. I really really like what the GFS did. Just need it to get stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 It looks like it's trying to close off again @87 . If the Euro comes back around I'll be very excited for this. Usually on the ULL's the GFS leads the way though which is why this really has my interest. Alas though it's just one run. Ditto..lol Closes off again @93. Not hanging my hat on this run but it gives us hope that the storm isn't dead. Nice to see the gfs picking up the ULL first also. Hope the trend continues! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 and again at hr102. This could stay closed off the whole time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 ya, I understand what your saying Burger, but 2m and 850's look MEH at best. I am not saying that its all the way correct, but its got others saying the same thing. EURO will be a bit more interesting today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 ya, I understand what your saying Burger, but 2m and 850's look MEH at best. I am not saying that its all the way correct, but its got others saying the same thing. EURO will be a bit more interesting today. Though I've been burned by the ULL before I do like all the cold air up north. That ULL though needs to be strong than one contour. If so it should be able to create it's own cold air core especially with any already cold air funneled in. Those are all big IFs though and I agree with only the GFS on our sides it's about like being a one legged man in an ass kicking contest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 This run is close verbatim for N NC, guys. Not folding yet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Though I've been burned by the ULL before I do like all the cold air up north. That ULL though needs to be strong than one contour. If so it should be able to create it's own cold air core especially with any already cold air funneled in. Those are all big IFs though and I agree with only the GFS on our sides it's about like being a one legged man in an ass kicking contest. LOL If it closes off and its a couple of contours, sure...there is a chance, but You better have some elevation to it cuz if not...I just don't see it. Doc will be a bit more interesting today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 This is close, guys. Not folding yet! Hey James, moving forward if the ULL is shown I prefer looking at thickness vs. 850's that usually tells the tale of how much cold air is actually working it's way in. Just something to keep track of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Hey James, moving forward if the ULL is shown I prefer looking at thickness vs. 850's that usually tells the tale of how much cold air is actually working it's way in. Just something to keep track of. Ah, interesting. Are you usually looking for the 540 line or something a little higher with the ULL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Ah, interesting. Are you usually looking for the 540 line or something a little higher with the ULL? Usually 540 line. If it's sagging that's a really good indication that cold enough air for snow is wrapping in and the core is strong. Really ULLs will actually have a 540 line at it's core. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 This run is close verbatim for N NC, guys. Not folding yet! For GSO it's like 33F with 850's at 1C. More dynamic ULL should do it, wouldn't give up yet, hopefully by tomorrow you can go all in or punt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 GEM is a big hit for GSO and points west all the way down to GSP. Don't give up yet. Edit: GEM is a HUGE hit for 85 and points west! Hopefully RaleighWx doesn't kill me for posting this, but it's sweet…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 GEM is a big hit for GSO and points west all the way down to GSP. Don't give up yet. Edit: GEM is a HUGE hit for 85 and points west! CMC looks incredible actually. 2m temps aren't perfect but wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 CMC looks incredible actually. 2m temps aren't perfect but wow! Yep but 2m's sucked for March 2009 and that worked out alright. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 CMC is really wrapping up the energy and has a closed off low right over AVL. It looks like on 5h it maybe moves southeast? That seems a little odd to go from AVL to CAE to CHS or so but ULL's will do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Yep but 2m's sucked for March 2009 and that worked out alright. This time around we'll actually have half way descent ground temps. First rule of snow is, if it's heavy enough it will overcome easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 CMC is really wrapping up the energy and has a closed off low right over AVL. It looks like on 5h it maybe moves southeast? That seems a little odd to go from AVL to CAE to CHS or so but ULL's will do that. My maps don't show it closed off, almost but never really does, you might have better maps though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 My maps don't show it closed off, almost but never really does, you might have better maps though. It only closes off for one frame and it's right around AVL. It opens back up and looks to pinwheel down to CAE and exit somewhere around CHS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 CMC is really wrapping up the energy and has a closed off low right over AVL. It looks like on 5h it maybe moves southeast? That seems a little odd to go from AVL to CAE to CHS or so but ULL's will do that.The 09 had a slight SE movement , if iirc? It came through TN through NGA over Athens and then just S of GSP to just S of CLT!?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Regarding the potential CAD portion fwiw, the high has strengthened on the 12Z GFS vs.today's 0Z GFS as of the key time of 12Z 3/6 by 3 mb from 1034 to 1037 mb. Do we have a strengthening trend in the high that will continue? That's about the only hope for the CAD portion of 3/6-7 to somehow come back to life. I'll be following this closely although the Miller A also needs to come back to life. Maybe I'm the only poster not yet completely giving up on the return of the CAD threat. Yes, there's a long way to go and odds are currently low but I still think there's time to trend back, especially considering that changes have been pretty large since Saturday (i.e., unstable models) and the Euro was still showing a major threat for CAD areas as recently as the 0Z run of yesterday (3/2). That's why I said yesterday I was going to give it till today (really tonight's 0Z runs) before giving up. So, I'll keep watching the strength of the potential CAD high for the rest of the day and night and also see if the Miller A returns to like it was. The low likely needs to be weak and it needs to be near the N GOM instead of off the SE coast as of 12Z 3/6. So to repeat, the 12Z GFS has the high at 1037 mb vs. 1034 on the 0Z GFS. The just released 12Z CMC has the high at 1040 mb vs. 1039 on today's 0Z and 1035 on yesterday's 0Z CMC. Edit: Yesterday's 12Z Euro was at 1038 while today's 0Z was only 1035. Based on the overerall model trends since 0Z today, I expect a stronger high than the 0Z Euro on today's 12Z Euro. We'll see. Edit #2; GEFS: 0Z: 1033; 6Z: 1034; 12Z: 1034 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Maybe I'm the only poster not yet completely giving up on the return of the CAD threat. Yes, there's a long way to go and odds are currently low but I still think there's time to trend back, especially considering that changes have been pretty large since Saturday (i.e., unstable models) and the Euro was still showing a major threat for CAD areas as recently as the 0Z run of yesterday (3/2). That's why I said yesterday I was going to give it till today (really tonight's 0Z runs) before giving up. So, I'll keep watching the strength of the potential CAD high for the rest of the day and night and also see if the Miller A returns to like it was. So to repeat, the 12Z GFS has the high at 1037 mb vs. 1034 on the 0Z GFS. The just released 12Z CMC has the high at 1040 mb vs. 1039 on today's 0Z and 1035 on yesterday's 0Z CMC. March can be full of surprises. I don't give up until April no matter what, and with cold air around, moisture underneath, cads, and ulls, anything can happen And if not this week, there is always next week, and the one after...as long as the pattern since last March doesn't change, and the highs keep coming down. I'd just as soon see a stable, cool, ull and cad filled summer again too. Last summer was pretty good, but I think we can do better. I think a summer without any 80's or 90's would be grand, lol, though that might require Katla going off Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Maybe I'm the only poster not yet completely giving up on the return of the CAD threat. Yes, there's a long way to go and odds are currently low but I still think there's time to trend back, especially considering that changes have been pretty large since Saturday (i.e., unstable models) and the Euro was still showing a major threat for CAD areas as recently as the 0Z run of yesterday (3/2). That's why I said yesterday I was going to give it till today (really tonight's 0Z runs) before giving up. So, I'll keep watching the strength of the potential CAD high for the rest of the day and night and also see if the Miller A returns to like it was. The low likely needs to be weak and it needs to be near the N GOM instead of off the SE coast as of 12Z 3/6. So to repeat, the 12Z GFS has the high at 1037 mb vs. 1034 on the 0Z GFS. The just released 12Z CMC has the high at 1040 mb vs. 1039 on today's 0Z and 1035 on yesterday's 0Z CMC. Edit: Yesterday's 12Z Euro was at 1038 while today's 0Z was only 1035. Based on the overerall model trends since 0Z today, I expect a stronger high than the 0Z Euro on today's 12Z Euro. We'll see. Edit #2; GEFS: 0Z: 1033; 6Z: 1034; 12Z: 1034 For 12Z on 3/6: -12Z UKMET yesterday had a 1034 high over SE Canada with virtually no CAD. In contrast, today's 12Z UKMET has a 1038 high just NW of Maine and with much stronger CAD (wedge signature quite evident). - 12Z JMA: similar comparison; 12Z yesterday had 1034; today's 12Z has 1036 with much more CAD. 12Z Doc up next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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