Tacoma Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Just watched Frank Strait's blog, he too is going with the euro and jma on the 6/7 storm and says the western carolinas and n e ga area could be looking at a heavy wet snowfall. he said like GSP that GFS is not to be believed. he wasn't sure if the heavy wet snow would make it in to Charlotte, quite that far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Lookout, fire up the cliff and start selling tickets. Probably going to be a hot ticket if you look at the trends. Every run has trended warmer for CAD prone areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Just watched Frank Strait's blog, he too is going with the euro and jma on the 6/7 storm and says the western carolinas and n e ga area could be looking at a heavy wet snowfall. he said like GSP that GFS is not to be believed. Yep, give me a perfect track and I will take my chances. I have seen ULL's and deformation bands do some crazy things, especially if they are slow-movers. They can drag down the cold air creating a near freezing isothermal sounding. Those lucky enough to be in the right spot can cash-in while areas to the north have a cold rain. The phrase "creating their own cold air" has been used at times, but that's not the case. Simply put, the system has little to no horizontal advection and this allows the column to cool via lift (evacuational cooling) and melting snow as it falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Lookout, fire up the cliff and start selling tickets. Probably going to be a hot ticket if you look at the trends. Every run has trended warmer for CAD prone areas.Yep, and now our only hope seems to be a rogue ULL! Let's see how that works out?!! The 09 ULL was a long tracked storm (7-8) days out. There were wobbles and such, but modeled far out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Lookout, fire up the cliff and start selling tickets. Probably going to be a hot ticket if you look at the trends. Every run has trended warmer for CAD prone areas. Frank Strait says the cold air will be around but it will be modified cold air for most except for possibly the mtns of the western carolinas and ne ga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 The SE ridge is not letting this plunge SE ward, take a look at this radar and you will see what I mean. I am probably wrong. This is a majority west of the Apps event. http://www.localwireless.com/wap/weather/radar/animated/?sid=1001&state=GA&city=Atlanta&d=540&zc=&submit=Save&showstorms=10&showids=1&r=384.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 The SE ridge is not letting this plunge SE ward, take a look at this radar and you will see what I mean. I am probably wrong. This is a majority west of the Apps event. http://www.localwireless.com/wap/weather/radar/animated/?sid=1001&state=GA&city=Atlanta&d=540&zc=&submit=Save&showstorms=10&showids=1&r=384.0 For the moment. Tomorrow NC will be getting some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Roberts thoughts on the free sight offer a little bit of hope ! He seems up beat about the possibilities of the ULL and wedge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparkync Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 For the moment. Tomorrow NC will be getting some. yes, its a back door front , cold air comes down from the north not from the west, we don't get these too often Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Possibly this storm system and the one 3-4 days later will be better known for their convective / severe weather potential. As much as I disagreed with you yesterday, I will admit that the 12z Euro's setup from 99-105 hrs would likely warrant some concern for most of the Florida peninsula with a decent amount of instability showing up and a rapidly intensifying LLJ in addition to backing surface winds in some locales. Frankly the H5 trough evolution on the 12z Euro reminded me a bit of the Christmas system in 2012 except shifted SE. I'd imagine the 12z UK is also more on the Euro's side seeing its 500 mb evolution between 96 and 120 hrs. The GFS still veers the low level winds quite quickly with a less impressive system overall, which would likely limit any severe potential and the GGEM...well the GGEM is just a hot mess. That's not to say I'm calling for an outbreak, to be honest it's a bit difficult to call any sort of severe weather event for FL this far out when there are caveats that many areas on the mainland do not face and that FL severe weather events are even more strongly controlled by the mesoscale. 00z GFS went the way of the 12z GGEM, i.e. an unconsolidated, positive tilt mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 WTH was that GFS?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 WTH was that GFS?? I know right. Sort of a double barrel low type set up of the coast but not really a storm on shore. That seems to be its favorite solution as of late when it just doesn't know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 WTH was that GFS?? Was that discombobulated thing that went out to sea our storm?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 GFS can't handle but 1 storm @ a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 GFS can't handle but 1 storm @ a time. No cold air around by Thursday, so if there is a storm it will most likely be rain for us don't ya think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I think for anyone outside NE GA, Mountains of NC/Northern NC... is rain. There is no nutty members/eps deals in the deep South etc. I understand the idea of an ULL. As usual if that ULL is real.. it won't benefit anyone else outside those areas as usual. Upstate MIGHT get lucky.. but idk about that either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I think for anyone outside NE GA, Mountains of NC/Northern NC... is rain. There is no nutty members/eps deals in the deep South etc. I understand the idea of an ULL. As usual if that ULL is real.. it won't benefit anyone else outside those areas as usual. Upstate MIGHT get lucky.. but idk about that either. I'm not convinced even the mountains won't be a cold rain. GSP currently has FZRA/Rain mix for my area, and looking at these models, nothing is going right for a nice event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Euro looks like its going to be a train wreck.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Yeah I think we can pretty much put a fork into it for the end of the week the models have been pretty consistent about just not getting the CAD we really need to make it happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 game set and match folks...This one is DOA...I just don't see this one getting back to anything. euro looks like hell, no CAD, and no ULL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 850s are a tad better this run for the western half of NC... hover in the 0-1C range. No real CAD, though. Surface temperatures suck until the end for most (mid to upper 30s in NC and 40s elsewhere). Portions of NC almost change over to some snow at the end, but there's not a lot of precip in general as basically no precip gets west of the I-85 corridor or so. Looks like it's going to pound Cape Cod. It will probably trend into a Boston blizzard. I'm pretty close to folding. If tomorrow's runs don't deliver, I'm out. A sane person would have already folded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Folks, The 0Z UKMET and JMA also have nothing of consequence, joining the 0Z Euro, GFS, and CMC. I haven't seen the Korean, Brazilian, or Navy models to be fair. So, I can't say no model has it as I don't really know. But I do know that the big five don't have it. The CAD on all is minimal and the high is a mere shadow of its formerly modeled self. Chances have dropped substantially with this steady consensus away from a winter storm. They will likely drop to close to zero if there's no drastic reversal by the 0Z's of Tuesday. Then I'd be out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Larry, the 00z NAVGEM doesn't have it, either, so you can add it to the list. It goes OTS and a lot of us don't even get any precip. Those that do have 850s of ~3C and surface temperatures in the 30s-40s. The 12z JMA had the storm, but it was a torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Larry, the 00z NAVGEM doesn't have it, either, so you can add it to the list. It goes OTS and a lot of us don't even get any precip. Those that do have 850s of ~3C and surface temperatures in the 30s-40s. The 12z JMA had the storm, but it was a torch. James, Thanks! So, the NAVGEM is out. Do you know how to check the Korean and Brazilian models? Rumor has it they're pretty dern good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I was so counting on this storm for one last nice snow of the season cause I think we're running out of time. I should know the models would lose the storm or I should say no cold air to help the storm. Oh well maybe it trends in our favor today or tomorrow, it has before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 wow where is the chatter about 3-6/7 event? has the models become so bad that no one wants to say what they look like for a winter storm Thursday night Friday time frame. I guess the no chatter is a dead giveaway. maybe by tomorrow things will look better. I hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 wow where is the chatter about 3-6/7 event? has the models become so bad that no one wants to say what they look like for a winter storm Thursday night Friday time frame. I guess the no chatter is a dead giveaway. maybe by tomorrow things will look better. I hope. They have all turned into super hot dumpster fires! No model is showing any frozen outside the mountains, and even mtns looking sketchy! ALL models went warmer yesterday and last night! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark Dee Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Yes apparently the timing of the upper troff reaching the amplitude to cause surface cyclogenesis will occur later and farther east than previously calculated. Possibly the system forecast 3-4 later may have a better thermal identity. March is the typical focus for severe convective wx over the southeast; we may see a pattern transition to this possibility over next 3-10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 The 06z GFS was the best GFS run in days, to be honest.... LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 12z GFS looks like it might be trying to create an ULL out west @57 though it's not closing off yet but it is more potent. If that thing can close off and get stronger we might be back in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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