wncweather Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 What time est does the next euro come out? I am thinking this might be a big snow storm for wnc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark Dee Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 That is my assumption. I’ll add that all of my comments should be taken with a grain of salt; as I’m just a model watching weenie. Maybe some other people can chime in their thoughts on my assumption? You may in fact be correct. It is interesting most of this winter has been dominated by northern stream energy which phased or tapped into southern stream moisture. In the upcoming event, its all southern stream energy in a short-term split flow pattern over the US. With the milder source region, it may be a mostly rain and thunder event, with frozen precip primarily in higher elevation above 2,000 ft. Now in first week of March the higher sun angle, warming etc. Lots in play with this one ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 What time est does the next euro come out? I am thinking this might be a big snow storm for wnc. with GSP jumping on board with a hazardous weather outlook this soon, makes believe they're confidence is growing for next week, telling folks to pay attention to the weather next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Until I see another model do what the GFS is doing, I’m not buying it. Edit: 12z CMC is doing the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 What time est does the next euro come out? I am thinking this might be a big snow storm for wnc. starts rolling around 12:45, GGEM(CMC) should start in the next 15-20 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncweather Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 starts rolling around 12:45, GGEM(CMC) should start in the next 15-20 minutes. Thank you so much. I am still learning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 To see how much the GFS has changed from just yesterday's 18z as of 12z on 3/6, look at NYC two meter temperatures. At 18z, it had about 12 there (and actually near zero a couple of runs before that). Today's 12z has NYC only down to ~32!! A low only down to 32 at NYC is always going to make it next to impossible to feed in enough cold air to get it down to 32 in the CAD areas down in the SE. Yesterday's 18z had a 1042 high then. Today's 12z has a 1034 high. Yesterday's 18z had a 1010 Miller A low. Today's 12z has a 1007 Miller A low. Obviously, a stronger high would be strongly preferred in this situation as it is vital. What may not be as obvious is that a weaker low is very likely also preferred as a too wound up low would tend to increase warm air advection ahead if it, fight off the CAD coming from the NE, and make the track too far north. If you look back at old wx maps, many front ended big/wet SE winter storms based on CAD were associated with lows that weren't too far off from 1010 mb while still in the Gulf before strengthening as they go across FL and up/near the SE coast. Look at the last two runs of the Euro for a good example. Yesterday's 12z run had a 996 mb low in the ne Gulf as of 0z Fri. Today's 0z run had a much weaker 1005 mb low at the same time and that run was significantly colder. I say root for a relatively weak low if you want more CAD wintry precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Thank you so much. I am still learning! No problem. Those two only run twice a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncweather Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Sorry I delete my last post and will put it in the correct thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 This is ugly... hopefully the Euro will hold serve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin1110GA Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 This is stressing me out. I hate not being able to control how I want the weather to be. Lol...... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 To see how much the GFS has changed from just yesterday's 18z as of 12z on 3/6, look at NYC two meter temperatures. At 18z, it had about 12 there (and actually near zero a couple of runs before that). Today's 12z has NYC only down to ~32!! A low only down to 32 at NYC is always going to make it next to impossible to feed in enough cold air to get it down to 32 in the CAD areas down in the SE. Yesterday's 18z had a 1042 high then. Today's 12z has a 1034 high. Yesterday's 18z had a 1010 Miller A low. Today's 12z has a 1007 Miller A low. Obviously, a stronger high would be strongly preferred in this situation as it is vital. What may not be as obvious is that a weaker low is very likely also preferred as a too wound up low would tend to increase warm air advection ahead if it, fight off the CAD coming from the NE, and make the track too far north. If you look back at old wx maps, many front ended big/wet SE winter storms based on CAD were associated with lows that weren't too far off from 1010 mb while still in the Gulf before strengthening as they go across FL and up/near the SE coast. Look at the last two runs of the Euro for a good example. Yesterday's 12z run had a 996 mb low in the ne Gulf as of 0z Fri. Today's 0z run had a much weaker 1005 mb low at the same time and that run was significantly colder. I say root for a relatively weak low if you want more CAD wintry precip. GSP said its discounting the GFS due to run to run inconsistencies ! Ride the Euro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Larry. Do think that the cad is underdone but I don't like how there is a low cruising through the Great Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Those Canadian boobs at 500mb are killing us on the 12cmc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 This is gonna be ride the euro until it's over I think. Euro is changing as well so it's not like it's totally locked in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Larry. Do think that the cad is underdone but I don't like how there is a low cruising through the Great Lakes. The GFS has been quite inconsistent for a number of runs now. Also, its weaker cad has been an outlier though the CMC is joining it. Also, remember how poorly the GFS did 3-5 days before the 2/12-13 storm. I say that the latest GFS trend of weakening the high and cad is likely wrong as of my current thinking. However, if the 12z doc and ukmet go that way, it would then not look so good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I agree that the euro will look better, but the ULL trending weaker on it has me thinking it may be cad or nada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 The storm is still 4-5 days out. Models tend to lose these storms in that time frame. If we're still looking at this mess when we get to Tuesdday night, then I'd throw in the towel. Of course, I still think it'd be mostly rain except for mountains and maybe foothills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I agree that the euro will look better, but the ULL trending weaker on it has me thinking it may be cad or nada The 60 hour map for the new 12Z Ukmet isn't looking as good as the 72 hour map of the 0Z Ukmet for the setting up of the CAD high. Therefore, I expect less CAD/weaker high and/or worse high position when the later maps are released on the 12Z Ukmet vs. the near textbook perfect 0Z Ukmet. We'll see. Remember that I'm just trying to be a friendly messenger and nothing more. So,please don't get out your weapons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 The 60 hour map for the new 12Z Ukmet isn't looking as good as the 72 hour map of the 0Z Ukmet for the setting up of the CAD high. Therefore, I expect less CAD/weaker high and'or worse high position when the later maps are released on the 12Z Ukmet vs. the near textbook perfect 0Z Ukmet. We'll see. Remember that I'm just trying to be a friendly messenger and nothing more. So,please don't get out your weapons. Larry, the ukmet is out on meteocentre.... and it’s ugly. The damming high is weak and too far north thanks to the northern energy not clearingn out and creating strong confluence in the northeast. It does like there might could be some backlash snow as the southern stream forms a pretty strong cut off low. Hard to say if it would be cold enough on the maps available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Eh, I think the UKMET was an improvement over last night. The high is weak, but at least it doesn't rocket offshore at an instant and last night's run ran in the low inland. Last night's run ran the low through central SC and NC. Today's run is offshore. The HP does suck, though, as noted. I wonder how much the UKMET's progressive bias affects its output. Looks to have a pretty potent ULL. Last night's run has the low in SW GA and then runs it up through central GA. The HP is stronger, but it does quickly slide offshore. Last night's run was a total disaster for those of us on the east side of the Apps. (This is valid for 12 hours earlier than the prior image since Meteocentre only has 24-hour panels for the UKMET post-hr 72) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Eh, I think the UKMET was an improvement over last night. The high is weak, but at least it doesn't rocket offshore at an instant and last night's run ran in the low inland. Last night's run ran the low through central SC and NC. Today's run is offshore. The HP does suck, though, as noted. I wonder how much the UKMET's progressive bias affects its output. Agree, better than 0z. Still probably a furnace though, LOL. Would be shocked if something like this unfolds below and the mountains don't get a good wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Agree, better than 0z. Still probably a furnace though, LOL. Would be shocked if something like this unfolds below and the mountains don't get a good wet snow. It's been awhile since we've had one of those late season wet snow events that affect the mountains and leave everyone else in rain. Maybe this is the time. As has been noted, the Canadian is horrible. Not only does the HP slide off the coast very quickly, but the low never even gets going much and no one really even gets precipitation aside from those on the coast. I feel like it's been all over the place with this one, though. It wasn't that long ago it was showing a 20-30" blizzard for portions of the NC Piedmont. We'll see. We need the Euro to hold in an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Eh, I think the UKMET was an improvement over last night. The high is weak, but at least it doesn't rocket offshore at an instant and last night's run ran in the low inland. Last night's run ran the low through central SC and NC. Today's run is offshore. The HP does suck, though, as noted. I wonder how much the UKMET's progressive bias affects its output. Looks to have a pretty potent ULL. Last night's run has the low in SW GA and then runs it up through central GA. The HP is stronger, but it does quickly slide offshore. Last night's run was a total disaster for those of us on the east side of the Apps. (This is valid for 12 hours earlier than the prior image since Meteocentre only has 24-hour panels for the UKMET post-hr 72) James, Good point about the low track being too far north on the 0Z Ukmet to be good. However, the high/CAD was fantastic imo and I certainly would prefer the 0Z run to this new run as the low's track pushing back south would seem very doable. The 12Z run carried the GFS/CMC trends of weaker/further north high..not a good run at all for CAD areas when one considers that any front-ended CAD related wintry precip. would have zero chance and it increases the chance that the trend away from excellent CAD is for real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BraseltonGAWX Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Amazing temp contrast over just a few miles in east Texas right now as the arctic air surges south! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Per 72 hour Euro: somewhat weaker high means not as good as 0Z Euro most likely. But it should be better than 12Z GFS/CMC/UKMET. Let's see. Edit: definitely coming in weaker/warmer with high in E US. This will likely yield a not so good result for CAD areas later vs. 0Z Euro. Let's see. Edit 2: Yep, probably can stick a fork in this run for CAD areas vs. the 0Z euro with weaker CAd high and stronger low..warmer But it is still better than the gfs by far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Yup Larry, looks terrible with CAD, the upper energy is more progressive. W and C NC will prolly do ok, but south of there....IMHO its about that time to write this off...NOT completely yet though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 nevermind...by 18z thur the 2m 0c line is waaaaay north, its gonna be rain for just about everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Cold Azz Rain! If we can't get a March snow, I want dry weather...baseball season is here and I got games to cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Major ice storm for GSO/INT (maybe sleet?) and even to the south/east, though it's a little warmer. It's a little warmer, as you'd expect with the weaker/further north high. 850s run around 1C, so it's not too far off. Probably heavy snows in the mountains. C GA/SC might get some snow with the ULL. 850s crash to below freezing and surface temperatures verbatim are in the mid-30s. The storm wraps up more and it's a little colder towards the end of the storm. C NC is close to getting hammered, but 850s are 1C, so it's ice or rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.