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3/6 - 3/7 Event is it this seasons last gasp?

WXinCanton

By WXinCanton,
in Southeastern States

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nchighcountrywx

nchighcountrywx

Posted
Posted

There is an area of -6c at 700mb now showing up above the 6 far NW NC Counties.

 

With good moisture influx into this area, appears to be good snow growth in this area that agrees with KGSP snow maps.

 

Update 645pm

 

Snow has started in Avery County.

 

Good rates.

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

HRRR is handling this terrible, had a lot of the area flipping to snow/sleet between 6-7, even RDU for several hours, currently it seems to be just north of 40 and western NC, it had a lot places south of 40 too, including CLT.  It had done well this winter too with precip type and temps.

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NEGa

NEGa

Posted
Posted

HRRR and RAP doing a TERRIBLE Job

 

yep sigh.  i wasnt really that optimistic last night, then with the crashing dewpoints, cold temps and getting to 31 i thought a lot of us would end up getting some frozen precip.  for once it looked like a "real" cad event with low dewpoints and temps with the precip coming in and cooling things off.  i dropped 11 degrees when it started, flirted with freezing now at a miserable 32.5 and rain ugh. 

 

right about the time the temps were crashing and hit freezing i thought maybe the hrrr/rap was on to something with a bit of snow. i should have known better :lol::axe:

 

seeing similar obs through a lot of nc isnt doing much to provide optimism at this point...was hoping that the subfreezing temps would be moving s and w by now

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Lookout

Lookout

Posted
Posted

I may not be entirely right.

 

But the 850 line is at the border.

 

Since its starting early that should help drop temps aloft as precip advances north. ATM there is a steady supply of CAA coming in.

 

If you do a loop 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=17&parm=pmsl&underlay=1&source=1#

the -4 -2 0 to the right hand of the page. You should notice the 2C line slowly moving south. The 0c 850 line might not start moving south till the column here saturates and pushes the line south. So in theory RAP, HRRR might not be too far off.

even gso has a warm nose. check out 879...probably another around 817. These are narrow but just goes to show you how far north the warm air is making it  over in nc.

Date:0000Z  7 MAR 14
Station: KGSO
WMO ident:  72317
Latitude:   36.08
Longitude: -79.95
Elevation: 270.00
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  0 1000   200                                                                 
SFC  991   270   2.0  -4.0  64  6.0  -0.3         275.9 276.3 273.3 283.8  2.86
  2  968   459  -0.3  -5.3  69  5.0  -2.1         275.4 275.8 272.8 282.8  2.66
  3  925   822  -3.3  -5.4  85  2.1  -4.0  50  25 275.9 276.4 273.2 283.6  2.76
  4  919   874  -3.7  -5.3  89  1.6  -4.3  54  25 276.0 276.5 273.3 283.8  2.80
  5  908   969  -3.1  -3.6  96  0.5  -3.3  62  26 277.6 278.2 274.9 286.5  3.22
  6  879  1228   1.2   1.2 100  0.0   1.2  83  27 284.7 285.5 280.4 298.0  4.75
  7  850  1498  -0.3  -0.3 100  0.0  -0.3 105  28 285.8 286.6 280.6 298.3  4.40
  8  833  1660  -1.3  -1.3 100  0.0  -1.3  61 -245414928 286.4 287.2 280.6 298.3  4.17
  9  817  1815   0.0   0.0 100  0.0   0.0  19 -481017440 289.4 290.2 282.5 302.9  4.68
 10  792  2063  -1.1  -1.1 100  0.0  -1.1 137  32 290.8 291.6 282.9 303.7  4.45
 11  761  2382  -0.9  -0.9 100  0.0  -0.9 157  31 294.4 295.2 284.6 308.2  4.71
 12  700  3045  -4.9  -5.0  99  0.1  -5.0 145  13 297.1 297.7 284.7 308.3  3.76
 13  670  3389  -7.1  -8.0  93  0.9  -7.5 192   3 298.3 298.9 284.5 307.8  3.12
 14  624  3944  -8.3  -8.9  95  0.6  -8.5 239  10 303.1 303.7 286.3 312.7  3.12
 15  563  4738 -12.5 -13.5  92  1.0 -12.8 218  27 307.2 307.6 287.0 314.8  2.40
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JoshM

JoshM

Posted
Posted

 

even gso has a warm nose. check out 879...probably another around 817. These are narrow but just goes to show you how far north the warm air is making over in nc.

Date:0000Z  7 MAR 14
Station: KGSO
WMO ident:  72317
Latitude:   36.08
Longitude: -79.95
Elevation: 270.00
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  0 1000   200                                                                 
SFC  991   270   2.0  -4.0  64  6.0  -0.3         275.9 276.3 273.3 283.8  2.86
  2  968   459  -0.3  -5.3  69  5.0  -2.1         275.4 275.8 272.8 282.8  2.66
  3  925   822  -3.3  -5.4  85  2.1  -4.0  50  25 275.9 276.4 273.2 283.6  2.76
  4  919   874  -3.7  -5.3  89  1.6  -4.3  54  25 276.0 276.5 273.3 283.8  2.80
  5  908   969  -3.1  -3.6  96  0.5  -3.3  62  26 277.6 278.2 274.9 286.5  3.22
  6  879  1228   1.2   1.2 100  0.0   1.2  83  27 284.7 285.5 280.4 298.0  4.75
  7  850  1498  -0.3  -0.3 100  0.0  -0.3 105  28 285.8 286.6 280.6 298.3  4.40
  8  833  1660  -1.3  -1.3 100  0.0  -1.3  61 -245414928 286.4 287.2 280.6 298.3  4.17
  9  817  1815   0.0   0.0 100  0.0   0.0  19 -481017440 289.4 290.2 282.5 302.9  4.68
 10  792  2063  -1.1  -1.1 100  0.0  -1.1 137  32 290.8 291.6 282.9 303.7  4.45
 11  761  2382  -0.9  -0.9 100  0.0  -0.9 157  31 294.4 295.2 284.6 308.2  4.71
 12  700  3045  -4.9  -5.0  99  0.1  -5.0 145  13 297.1 297.7 284.7 308.3  3.76
 13  670  3389  -7.1  -8.0  93  0.9  -7.5 192   3 298.3 298.9 284.5 307.8  3.12
 14  624  3944  -8.3  -8.9  95  0.6  -8.5 239  10 303.1 303.7 286.3 312.7  3.12
 15  563  4738 -12.5 -13.5  92  1.0 -12.8 218  27 307.2 307.6 287.0 314.8  2.40

When the columns aren't stacked vertically you get some fun results

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Scooter

Scooter

Posted
Posted

 

even gso has a warm nose. check out 879...probably another around 817. These are narrow but just goes to show you how far north the warm air is making it over in nc.

Are we looking at this lasting through the night or will the column cool enough for any wintry precipitation? Could this be the start of waa taking over for the duration? Thanks 

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mackerel_sky

mackerel_sky

Posted
Posted

Interesting. We will see if GSP puts the upstate in an advisory

They won't. Temps are locked at 34.5 here and have been for 2 hrs and not as cold in NC as every model was showing. The advisories they have out will suffice. I would bet 100 to 1 we don't get to 32 here! I really don't know why SPC even put that out. The heavy rain is probably pulling down warmth from the warm nose !
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Lookout

Lookout

Posted
Posted

Are we looking at this lasting through the night or will the column cool enough for any wintry precipitation? Could this be the start of waa taking over for the duration? Thanks 

the models insist on it getting warmer in the mid levels over night for north carolina. Going to be tough to get much snow in north carolina I would think if it's not already snow since warm air advection is only expected to increase. That might not apply as much over the far west but central and eastern nc it's pretty stout.

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Scooter

Scooter

Posted
Posted

the models insist on it getting warmer in the mid levels over night for north carolina. Going to be tough to get much snow in north carolina I would think if it's not already snow since warm air advection is only expected to increase. That might not apply as much over the far west but central and eastern nc it's pretty stout.

Thanks! Was hoping to see flakes but just like Monday a little to far south. Freezing rain/sleet still a good possibility I'm sure. Long ways to go with more precipitation moving in. 

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Heisy

Heisy

Posted
Posted

Just a quick tidbit from a guy in Philly...We've had a ton of winter storms up here, and I've used the HRRR for each one. It does really, really bad with mixed events. Every event it had me going over to snow too soon, it also counts sleet as snow on its snowfall maps. Use it very cautiously, especially in an event like this.

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deltadog03

deltadog03

Posted
Posted

I think some snow is likely over Central NC and western NC now, but it won't last long over C NC, IMO  looks like sleep and ZR will be the predominant ptype.  Warm air WILL win the battle with this storm.  Outside of that, I just don't see any wintry anywhere else.  

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