deltadog03 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 I think Chris is right, the key to all of this is how heavy the precip falls. I think you will see some lolly popping going on when and if it does start to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 My question is what does the RAP and HRRR see? It's very bullish for snow IMBY. I may not be entirely right. But the 850 line is at the border. Since its starting early that should help drop temps aloft as precip advances north. ATM there is a steady supply of CAA coming in. If you do a loop http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=17&parm=pmsl&underlay=1&source=1# the -4 -2 0 to the right hand of the page. You should notice the 2C line slowly moving south. The 0c 850 line might not start moving south till the column here saturates and pushes the line south. So in theory RAP, HRRR might not be too far off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gritsnc Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Itty bitty flakes in gboro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 It's gonna be 35 and rain. Watch and learn. Never fails to under perform in Upstate SC. You can take this to the bank, at least for western upstate. In fact, I am already there; 36 and steady rain. So much for dry air, evaporational cooling, or strong CADs. This is about the best it will get for areas west of GSP. Same story different storm! But, union to rock hill, May just have a shot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Yep. 925 is still warm over you way http://www.spc.noaa.gov/sfctest/new/viewsector.php?sector=17# You can take this to the bank, at least for western upstate. In fact, I am already there; 36 and steady rain. So much for dry air, evaporational cooling, or strong CADs. This is about the best it will get for areas west of GSP. Same story different storm! But, union to rock hill, May just have a shot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Snow line is moving south if this is accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 I'm really starting to wonder if there is going to be a change over to snow very soon over far northeast ga and the upstate. That is some impressive precipitation coming down and it's only getting heavier. the precip there is even heavier than here and it's absolutely pouring. Given the expected mid level temps, don't be surprised if it suddenly changes over or at the least mixes with snow pretty soon.I swear it looks like some big sloppy flakes half melted falling outside, may just be grasping. But if the upper levels can cooperate, they should be able to make it to the ground with temps at 35 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow dog Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 I swear it looks like some big sloppy flakes half melted falling outside, may just be grasping. But if the upper levels can cooperate, they should be able to make it to the ground with temps at 35 Mack-I'm with ya there. Down to 34 here, and looks like we are on the doorsteps to snow! lol.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Anyone seeing their dp's dropping? Need that to happen if anyone south of i-40 wants to really cash in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigflakesohappy Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Sleet in High Point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 What a drop in a 850 line. I looked at it no more than 40 mins ago and it was kissing the va line. Snow line is moving south if this is accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drfranklin Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 I swear it looks like some big sloppy flakes half melted falling outside, may just be grasping. But if the upper levels can cooperate, they should be able to make it to the ground with temps at 35 Guys, it looks really strange here in Greenville, SC - huge raindrops falling - 34 degrees currently - honestly, it looks like it could change over to frozen precip with higher precip rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 What a drop in a 850 line. I looked at it no more than 40 mins ago and it was kissing the va line. Yup I know strange. Still waiting for precip to start here but its a good sign the upper levels are cooling off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Special Weather Statement from NWS Raleigh: FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WINSTON-SALEM...GREENSBORO...HIGH POINT...BURLINGTON...GRAHAM...LEXINGTON...THOMASVILLE...ASHEBORO...ARCHDALE...TRINITY528 PM EST THU MAR 6 2014...SLEET AND PERHAPS A LITTLE RAIN OR SNOW WILL CONTINUE TOSPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND TRIAD REGION THISEVENING...A MIX OF LIGHT SLEET AND A LITTLE RAIN WILL BECOME STEADIER AS ITSPREADS NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND TRIAD AREA.SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN AT TIMES AS WELL...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTHOF INTERSTATE 40. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S AT AROUND500 PM WILL FALL TO THE 32 TO 36 RANGE BY 700 PM AND EVENTUALLYFALL BELOW FREEZING LATER THIS EVENING. WITH MAINLY ABOVEFREEZING TEMPERATURES... NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET ORSNOW ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 700 PM. LATER THISEVENING...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO AROUND OR BELOW FREEZING ANDTHE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO ACCUMULATE...PRIMARILY AS A MIXOF SLEET AND SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 I swear it looks like some big sloppy flakes half melted falling outside, may just be grasping. But if the upper levels can cooperate, they should be able to make it to the ground with temps at 35 thank goodness i am not losing more of my mind lol. its 31.6 and coming down pretty hard right now (rain, not snow). although there are some funny looking raindrops that are big and look like a rain/snow blob. (as a matter of fact coming down so hard that i see very little glazing at the moment) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crapper Jim Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 I swear it looks like some big sloppy flakes half melted falling outside, may just be grasping. But if the upper levels can cooperate, they should be able to make it to the ground with temps at 35 I check car tops at an acute angle for precip type. Just had a smoke. From 15 feet - I saw some "gloppyness". I sensed general gloppyness... felt gloppy. "Glop Factor" was moderate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldamon Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Sleet mixed with rain in Durham for last hour or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 nega, you've got graupel falling there and/or snow pellets. Was getting ready to say for a lot of us with the ULL, i"m expecting that to produce pockets of graupel, snow pellets, or even non-accum snows (even with temps as warm as 40) later tonigh into tomorrow through the southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Snow in Colfax (triad park). TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 There's alot of blue showing in Greenville and just to the N. and the heavy stuff is about to move in, I'll be watching Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 There's alot of blue showing in Greenville and just to the N. and the heavy stuff is about to move in, I'll be watching Yeah but the radars are wrong. Nothing but cold miserable rain reaching the ground. No even any sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 nega, you've got graupel falling there and/or snow pellets. Was getting ready to say for a lot of us with the ULL, i"m expecting that to produce pockets of graupel, snow pellets, or even non-accum snows (even with temps as warm as 40) later tonigh into tomorrow through the southeast. ah - its certainly an odd look with the rain lol. precip has lightened up again and looks to be mostly rain again....temp hasnt budged, but the ne winds seem to be kicking in a bit again Yeah but the radars are wrong. Nothing but cold miserable rain reaching the ground. No even any sleet. thats why the board is nice to get the ground truth lol. many times shows snow over mby but its just rain (once and a while shows rain when its snow but those times are few and far between unfortunately) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Nice that the IOP radiosonde crew will be launching weather balloons at UNC: Asheville. Should be absolute pivotal for this event to see if profiles stay isothermal in Asheville. http://www.atms.unca.edu/sempe/rt_sempe1314.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 snowing in asheville now Edit. coming down hard and heavy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KChuck Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Just got done eating and checked deck. Almost covered with sleet. Nothing was there when we started eating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 The rate its snowing outside now. Its very very plausible that 85 corridor N/W towards the triad and VA line could see a foot or better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VanillaDream Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Rain/sleet mixture here north of Roswell... 35.5... seems to be tapering off for now however.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 The rate its snowing outside now. Its very very plausible that 85 corridor N/W towards the triad and VA line could see a foot or better. Dont even....... You are correct though. Somebody, just NW of GSO INT I think, is going to net the bullseye on this one. Good rates already across the triad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Sleeting with force here in Btown. Need just a little more cooling to get those flakes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 snowing in asheville now Edit. coming down hard and heavy. ground is already turning white and snowing sideways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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