GaWx Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Hi Larry, do you mind letting us know the temperature profile on the NAM for the regions under the Winter Storm Warning in NC? The nam has been warmer aloft in the past runs. The guys at the NWS have been discounting it a bit because the warm nose is not as pronounced on the other models. Pretty important detail when it comes to power outages and ice accruals. I'm hoping we can get more sleet instead of freezing rain. If you don't have the time, I understand. Thank you for your efforts! We all appreciate it! You're welcome. It looks similar to ATL at 925 (below 0C) until about 7 AM tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 but...charlotte was game over? everyone knows wet bulbs have never come down before. I was looking at Salisbury sounding...CLT wetbulb still dont get below freezing... 33.62F at it's lowest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 It's sleeting in Wake Forest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WSNC Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Looks like this is moving in faster than models had indicated. The earlier the better with the high still in a good spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 It appears the bullseye for this storm will be the Triad....trying to figure out the precip types and amounts is pretty much useless at this time. I'm just confident it's going to be a mess tomorrow morning. I hope there's more snow/sleet versus frz rn due to power concerns. Although, it sure is looking like a tremendous amount of frz rn is heading our way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 our 925's are right at 0c now, Larry...Chris Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 The radar out of Raleigh looks interesting. Returns developing ahead of the main batch in the southern portions and its filling in between RAH and FAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjpayne44 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Yeah, I've seen some reports of sleet in the Raleigh area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 LOL Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 32m For my friends in the Carolinas, its time to hoist the http://Weatherbell.com Winter Storm Warning Flag pic.twitter.com/noe7avfCVT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 We had sleet mixed in earlier around 1:30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 In other words, for the blue and yellow areas, it could be worse, or it could be all rain. Just have to wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Wet bulb keeps rising. Up to 35.6°. For my area this just isn't going to happen. Good luck to those who cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted March 6, 2014 Author Share Posted March 6, 2014 Not looking like much for North GA. Hopefully the NC folks can get some good action Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Latest RAP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Since this is coming in faster once evaporative cooling starts taking place wouldn't this be more snow to fall instead of ice? In theory the CAD will be locked in good. Precip ahead of schedule with a steady supply of cold. If any warming does happen most if not all precip will be near ending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 LOL Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 32m For my friends in the Carolinas, its time to hoist the http://Weatherbell.com Winter Storm Warning Flag pic.twitter.com/noe7avfCVT Atta boy !Also FYI since this past weekend, Joe has been discussing the possibility of a 'Grand Planetary Wave' induced storm for around the 13th next week. Unfortunately the storm would only affect upper mid Atlantic northward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DueUCMe Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Quite the comparison... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 don't get Blacksburg? They upgrade me to winter storm warning, for 1 inch snow/sleet and trace of Ice??? That's barely WWA? ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY....TONIGHT...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SLEET WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOWTHIS EVENING...THEN SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOWAND SLEET ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. ICE ACCUMULATION AROUND ATRACE. LOWS AROUND 30. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UPTO 25 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT..FRIDAY...RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN RAINLIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. ICE ACCUMULATION AROUND A TRACE. HIGHSIN THE MID 40S. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATIONNEAR 100 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 For those in NC, spc show some room to work with aloft at 850. Last 20 mins winds have been increasing out of the NE. There seems to be more of an influx of cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Just my opinion here, but just looking at radar and all the models, I think the GFS **MORE than likely** has the best qpf representation then certainly the NAM. The euro looks overdone as well. I think the Triad will be the biggest winners over to WNC. Some snow looks possible, but this screams ZR/IP to me. GFS looks like its about 1-1.25" total QPF up there and makes sense to me. Hope yall get some wintry weather, but I can't see the NAM being right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 don't get Blacksburg? They upgrade me to winter storm warning, for 1 inch snow/sleet and trace of Ice??? That's barely WWA? ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY... .TONIGHT...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SLEET WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW THIS EVENING...THEN SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. ICE ACCUMULATION AROUND A TRACE. LOWS AROUND 30. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT. .FRIDAY...RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. ICE ACCUMULATION AROUND A TRACE. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT. That's in case it gets worse. They will not have to up-grade to a warning. They will just up the accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Just my opinion here, but just looking at radar and all the models, I think the GFS **MORE than likely** has the best qpf representation then certainly the NAM. The euro looks overdone as well. I think the Triad will be the biggest winners over to WNC. Some snow looks possible, but this screams ZR/IP to me. GFS looks like its about 1-1.25" total QPF up there and makes sense to me. Hope yall get some wintry weather, but I can't see the NAM being right. Thats an interesting statement. What about the placement of the 850 low eventually and maybe the thermal profiles? Nam has certainly been warm thermally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Just my opinion here, but just looking at radar and all the models, I think the GFS **MORE than likely** has the best qpf representation then certainly the NAM. The euro looks overdone as well. I think the Triad will be the biggest winners over to WNC. Some snow looks possible, but this screams ZR/IP to me. GFS looks like its about 1-1.25" total QPF up there and makes sense to me. Hope yall get some wintry weather, but I can't see the NAM being right.It's kind of a now cast thing. There is a long fetch of moisture from AL, GA and the Carolinas and the way it's positioned and pivoting, I believe that 2 + inches of QPF is likely across NC, yes there won't be 4 inches of QPF , but it looks juicy. I hope someone gets something memorable and they take lots of pictures! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Atta boy ! Also FYI since this past weekend, Joe has beenn discussing the possibility of a 'Grand Planetary Wave' induced storm for around the 13th next week. Unfortunately the storm would only affect upper mid Atlantic northward Yes, I've heard him talking about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 That's in case it gets worse. They will not have to up-grade to a warning. They will just up the accumulations. As fast as it looks to be moving it may be outta here by midnight! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 It's kind of a now cast thing. There is a long fetch of moisture from AL, GA and the Carolinas and the way it's positioned and pivoting, I believe that 2 + inches of QPF is likely across NC, yes there won't be 4 inches of QPF , but it looks juicy. I hope someone gets something memorable and they take lots of pictures! Its def. a nowcasting thing, but being on tv/media/radio (whatever) you have to continue to always update things. There might be some higher QPF amounts, but we shall see. Looks like most models, outside nam and euro, have trended down in QPF for C and WNC. Again, I want yall to have the QPF, but I just don't see anything that heavy (qpf wise) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 My question is what does the RAP and HRRR see? It's very bullish for snow IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Latest RAP. It shows around six inches of snow right over my house. That can't be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 It shows around six inches of snow right over my house. That can't be right. I'm really starting to wonder if there is going to be a change over to snow very soon over far northeast ga and the upstate. That is some impressive precipitation coming down and it's only getting heavier. the precip there is even heavier than here and it's absolutely pouring. Given the expected mid level temps, don't be surprised if it suddenly changes over or at the least mixes with snow pretty soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 My question is what does the RAP and HRRR see? It's very bullish for snow IMBY. Burger, I have seen both of those Show snow and its not even close. Its thermal profiles are usually MEH...*from what I can tell* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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