3/6 - 3/7 Event is it this seasons last gasp?

[packfan98]

NWS Raleigh:

 

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 PM THURSDAY...

...CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN WINTER STORM CONDITIONS FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT... AND PERSON COUNTY (MAINLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-85) TONIGHT INTO MID-DAY FRIDAY...

PRELIMINARY WARNINGS INCLUDE... FORSYTH... DAVIDSON... GUILFORD...
ALAMANCE... AND PERSON.

PRELIMINARY ADVISORIES INCLUDE... RANDOLPH... CHATHAM... ORANGE...
DURHAM... GRANVILLE... AND VANCE.

THE PARENT HIGH PRESSURE (1038+ MB) WAS CENTERED OVER UPPER NY
STATE. THIS AFFECTS OF THIS HIGH EXTEND SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS INTO GEORGIA. IT IS OF SUFFICIENT STRENGTH AND OF ADEQUATE
LOCATION TO DELIVER CAA/DAA... AND IS MORE THAN COLD ENOUGH TO
DELIVER CAA/DAA INTO OUR PIEDMONT DAMMING REGION FOR A WINTER
WEATHER EVENT. THIS IS OCCURRING AS THE MID/UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER
THE DEEP SOUTH APPROACH FROM THE SW... WHICH WILL INDUCE A MILLER-A
TYPE LOW PRESSURE THAT IS FORECAST TO TRACK FROM THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO THIS EVENING... NE ALONG THE SE US COAST TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. TYPICALLY... MILLER-A STORMS CARRY A NARROW TRANSITION
ZONE... FROM SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO LITTLE IMPACT CONCERNING WINTER
WEATHER. THIS MAY END UP THE CASE AGAIN WITH THIS STORM.

WHAT IS VERY INTERESTING ABOUT THIS STORM IS THAT THE STORM TYPE...
TRACK... AND CLASSICAL DAMMING PATTERN (AT LEAST AT THE ONSET OF THE
STORM) STRONGLY SUGGEST MORE SNOW THAN THE MODELS HAVE DEPICTED IN
THE DAMMING REGION. TYPICALLY... THERE WOULD BE MORE SNOW EXPECTED
OVER THE NW PIEDMONT WITH A NARROW TRANSITION ZONE OF MIXED SNOW AND
RAIN... TO ALL RAIN IN THE EAST AND SOUTH. LED BY THE NAM... THERE
HAS BEEN A PROMINENT WARM NOSE ALOFT DEPICTED ALL ALONG WITH THE
STORM WHICH HAS PRECLUDED SNOW FROM ITS FORECAST.

NOW THAT THE SYSTEM IS BEARING DOWN ON US... MODELS SEEM TO BE
COMING AROUND TO DEPICT MORE SNOW/SLEET THAN BEFORE BETWEEN 00Z/06Z
OR SO IN THE NW TONIGHT... THEN ICING BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. THIS SEEMS
VERY REASONABLE AND IT MAY YET BE UNDERDONE WITH THE SNOW/SLEET
(FROZEN SIDE) OF THE STORM.

THIS CONTINUES TO BE A FORECAST BATTLE OF THE PLACEMENT OF THE WARM
AND COLD NOSES. THE LATEST NAM CONTINUES STEADFAST IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE STRONGEST WARM NOSE ALOFT (+6 DEGREES/C) DRIVEN
BY 50-70KT FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO EASTERN SC/NC IN THE LAYER
BETWEEN H85 AND H75. THE LATEST OPERATIONAL EC AND GFS CONTINUE TO
FORECAST THE MOST PROMINENT COLD NOSE CENTERED AT H9 FROM
CHARLOTTESVILLE TO DANVILLE THROUGH THE TRIAD... BOTTOMING OUT AT -5
DEGREES/C OVERNIGHT. THIS OCCURS AS A GOOD PART OF THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION FALLS. IT APPEARS THESE RATHER LARGE DIFFERENCES ARE
RELATED TO THE SPEED/TRACK OF THE INDIVIDUAL MODELS WITH THE
APPROACHING MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW. THE 12Z NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE
SLOWEST WITH THE SYSTEM... WHILE THE 12Z GFS REMAINS THE QUICKEST.
THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK OR THE DEEP CONVECTION
THAT WAS MOVING INTO FLORIDA FROM THE EASTERN GULF. GIVEN THAT THE
NAM AT 12Z CAME IN A BIT QUICKER WITH THE STORMS MOVEMENT... THE GFS
AND THE QUICKER SOLUTIONS MAY BE THE WAY TO GO. THE WARMER NAM MAY
BE RELATED TO THE SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE MID/UPPER CUT OFF LOW WHICH
GIVES MORE TIME TO TAP WESTERN ATLANTIC AIR INTO THE SYSTEM AND
DRIVE THE WARM NOSE MUCH FARTHER INLAND. THUS THE NAM EXTREME WARM
NOSE WAS NOT ACCEPTED FULLY. HOWEVER... A PROMINENT WARM NOSE ALOFT
IS ANTICIPATED AS IS DEPICTED BY THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS.

...FOR THE WARNING COUNTIES INCLUDING THE PIEDMONT TRIAD AND
ROXBORO...

PARTIALS IN THE 1000/850 AND 850/700 LAYERS ARE FORECAST BY THE
EC/GFS TO BE IN THE 1295-1300M/1545-1550M RANGE BETWEEN 00Z/09Z OVER
NW AND N PIEDMONT. THE UNIVERSAL NOMOGRAM DEPICTS THE PRECIPITATION
BEGINNING AS SNOW/SLEET IN THE TRIAD EARLY TO MID EVENING... THEN
SLOWLY CHANGING TO MIXED SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT. THE
SURFACE WET BULB FORECASTS DROP THE TEMPERATURES TO 29-30
OVERNIGHT... KEEPING THEM THERE THROUGH 12Z... THEN SLOWLY WARM TO
33 OR SO BETWEEN 13Z-15Z. QPF ON THE ORDER OF 0.50 TO 0.75 DURING
THIS CRITICAL TIME SHOULD TRANSLATE TO 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW/SLEET THEN
POTENTIALLY UP TO 0.25 OF FREEZING RAIN. THE MORE SNOW/SLEET AT THE
ONSET... OBVIOUSLY THE MORE HAZARDOUS ROADS WILL BECOME. THE MORE
FREEZING RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT... THE MORE THAT WOULD WEIGH ON
TREES/POWER LINES. REGARDLESS... TOGETHER THE P-TYPES OF WINTRY
MIXTURE SHOULD EQUAL WINTER STORM CRITERIA WHEN COMBINED WITH TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 20S OVERNIGHT IN THE WARNED COUNTIES. THE FREEZING RAIN
SHOULD BECOME A SELF LIMITING PROCESS AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY AS THE
COMBINATION OF GOOD RAINFALL RATES... TEMPS RISING INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 30S... AND INSOLATION THROUGH THE CLOUDS LIMIT FREEZING. A
COUPLE OF CONCERNS... LESS OF A WARM NOSE... WOULD MEAN MORE SNOW
AND SLEET THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. SENSIBLE WEATHER... SNOW AND SLEET
DEVELOPING THIS EVENING... CHANGING TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AFTER
MIDNIGHT. TOTAL SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION 1-3 INCHES. TOTAL ICE
ACCRUAL UP TO 0.25 OF AN INCH. TOTAL QPF 1.00. LOWS 28-30. FREEZING
RAIN TO RAIN FRIDAY MORNING... ENDING IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE
MID 30S.

...IN THE ADVISORY AREA INCLUDING ASHEBORO TO DURHAM TO OXFORD...

A WINTRY MIXTURE ARRIVING DURING THE EVENING... BECOMING FREEZING
RAIN MIXED SLEET OVERNIGHT. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY PARTIALS IN THE
1300 TO 1305/1550-1560 RANGE... AND SURFACE WET BULBS 31-32. THE
FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BECOME ALL RAIN BEFORE DAYBREAK. TOTAL
SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION LESS THAN 0.5. TOTAL ICE ACCRUAL UP TO 0.1.
LOWS 30-32... WHICH SHOULD MEAN MINIMAL IMPACTS ON AREA ROADS UNLESS
MORE SNOW/SLEET FALL AT THE ONSET DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY... RAIN... HEAVY AT TIMES. TEMPS RISING INTO THE UPPER 30S.

...AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES...

RAIN DEVELOPING THIS EVENING... POSSIBLY BEGINNING AS SLEET. LOWS 33-
35... SLOWLY RISING OVERNIGHT TO NEAR 40 OR 45 SE. RAIN FRIDAY...
HEAVY AT TIMES. HIGHS IN THE 40S/LOWER 50S SE.

FINALS COMING UP IN AN HOUR.

[Amos83]

39/16 gives me roughly a WB of 32. not expecting too much here

[SN_Lover]

39/16 gives me roughly a WB of 32. not expecting too much here

I am really trying to understand why warnings and expanded advisories are being issued....

 

Anyone have any idea as to why?? 

[nchighcountrywx]

Winter Storm Warning for NC High Country

Snow: 2 to 5 inches

WWUS42 KGSP 061938

WSWGSP

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

238 PM EST THU MAR 6 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM EXPECTED TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF WESTERN

NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...

.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF

MEXICO WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS EVENING.

PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE

EVENING. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES OFF THE SOUTHEAST

COAST TONIGHT...COOLER AIR WILL SURGE DOWN FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER

NEW ENGLAND. THE COOLER AIR WILL ALLOW THE PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE

OVER TO A WINTRY MIX ACROSS MUCH OF THE MOUNTAINS...PIEDMONT...AND

FOOTHILLS OF NORTH CAROLINA. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE TO

RAIN ON FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING.

NCZ033-049-050-053-064-065-501>507-509-070400-

/O.UPG.KGSP.WW.Y.0014.140306T2300Z-140307T1700Z/

/O.NEW.KGSP.WS.W.0006.140307T0000Z-140307T1700Z/

AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-BUNCOMBE-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-

CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-

MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-

POLK MOUNTAINS-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...ASHEVILLE...

BREVARD...HENDERSONVILLE

238 PM EST THU MAR 6 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON

EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH

IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST FRIDAY. THIS

REPLACES THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

* LOCATIONS...THE EASTERN BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT...AND THE NORTHERN

FOOTHILLS OF NORTH CAROLINA.

* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT...THEN

POSSIBLE LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION FRIDAY MORNING.

* TIMING...SNOW AND SLEET WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA DURING EARLY

TO MID EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE MAINLY TO SLEET

DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO FREEZING

RAIN BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 5 INCHES... ALONG

WITH AROUND A TRACE OF ICE.

* IMPACTS...SLIPPERY ROADS DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF SNOW...

SLEET... AND ICE.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...

SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO

POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

PLEASE REPORT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS...AS WELL AS ANY DAMAGE

TO TREES OR STRUCTURES...BY CALLING THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

TOLL FREE AT...1...800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1. LEAVE A MESSAGE WITH

YOUR OBSERVATION AND THE SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED. YOU

CAN ALSO POST YOUR REPORT TO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE

SPARTANBURG FACEBOOK OR TWEET YOUR REPORT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP.

[BullCityWx]

I-40 corridor now in a warning, WWA down to the state line along 85. 



NCZ035>037-056-057-070400-
/O.UPG.KGSP.WW.Y.0014.140306T2300Z-140307T1700Z/
/O.NEW.KGSP.WS.W.0006.140307T0000Z-140307T1700Z/
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...STATESVILLE...MOCKSVILLE...HICKORY...
SALISBURY
238 PM EST THU MAR 6 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON
EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED
A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN
EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST FRIDAY. THIS REPLACES
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

* LOCATIONS...THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA.

* HAZARDS...HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.

* TIMING...A MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET WILL CHANGE OVER MAINLY TO
SLEET THIS EVENING...AND THEN FREEZING RAIN DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE TO ALL
RAIN SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SLEET ACCUMULATION OF UP TO 1 INCH...ALONG WITH
AROUND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE.

* IMPACTS...DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS DUE TO SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES DUE TO HEAVY ICE
ACCUMULATIONS.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWS TONIGHT AROUND 30.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

PLEASE REPORT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS...AS WELL AS ANY DAMAGE
TO TREES OR STRUCTURES...BY CALLING THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
TOLL FREE AT...1...800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1. LEAVE A MESSAGE WITH
YOUR OBSERVATION AND THE SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED. YOU
CAN ALSO POST YOUR REPORT TO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE
SPARTANBURG FACEBOOK OR TWEET YOUR REPORT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP.

&&

$

NCZ068>072-SCZ003-070400-
/O.EXB.KGSP.WW.Y.0014.140307T0000Z-140307T1700Z/
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SHELBY...LINCOLNTON...GASTONIA...
CHARLOTTE...CONCORD
238 PM EST THU MAR 6 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
NOON EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS
IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST FRIDAY.

* LOCATIONS...THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA...AND
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS.

* HAZARDS...LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.

* TIMING...RAIN AND SLEET MAY BRIEFLY TO CHANGE TO ALL SLEET THIS
EVENING...THEN TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
FREEZING RAIN WILL CHANGE BACK TO RAIN FRIDAY MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH OF SLEET AND ICE.

* IMPACTS...SLIPPERY ROADS DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF SLEET AND
ICE. A FEW POWER OUTAGES WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO
TREE LIMBS FALLING ONTO POWER LINES.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP.

[jburns]

NWS Raleigh:

 

...FOR THE WARNING COUNTIES INCLUDING THE PIEDMONT TRIAD AND

ROXBORO...

PARTIALS IN THE 1000/850 AND 850/700 LAYERS ARE FORECAST BY THE

EC/GFS TO BE IN THE 1295-1300M/1545-1550M RANGE BETWEEN 00Z/09Z OVER

NW AND N PIEDMONT. THE UNIVERSAL NOMOGRAM DEPICTS THE PRECIPITATION

BEGINNING AS SNOW/SLEET IN THE TRIAD EARLY TO MID EVENING... THEN

SLOWLY CHANGING TO MIXED SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT. THE

SURFACE WET BULB FORECASTS DROP THE TEMPERATURES TO 29-30

OVERNIGHT... KEEPING THEM THERE THROUGH 12Z... THEN SLOWLY WARM TO

33 OR SO BETWEEN 13Z-15Z. QPF ON THE ORDER OF 0.50 TO 0.75 DURING

THIS CRITICAL TIME SHOULD TRANSLATE TO 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW/SLEET THEN

POTENTIALLY UP TO 0.25 OF FREEZING RAIN. THE MORE SNOW/SLEET AT THE

ONSET... OBVIOUSLY THE MORE HAZARDOUS ROADS WILL BECOME. THE MORE

FREEZING RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT... THE MORE THAT WOULD WEIGH ON

TREES/POWER LINES. REGARDLESS... TOGETHER THE P-TYPES OF WINTRY

MIXTURE SHOULD EQUAL WINTER STORM CRITERIA WHEN COMBINED WITH TEMPS

IN THE UPPER 20S OVERNIGHT IN THE WARNED COUNTIES. THE FREEZING RAIN

SHOULD BECOME A SELF LIMITING PROCESS AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY AS THE

COMBINATION OF GOOD RAINFALL RATES... TEMPS RISING INTO THE LOWER TO

MID 30S... AND INSOLATION THROUGH THE CLOUDS LIMIT FREEZING. A

COUPLE OF CONCERNS... LESS OF A WARM NOSE... WOULD MEAN MORE SNOW

AND SLEET THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. SENSIBLE WEATHER... SNOW AND SLEET

DEVELOPING THIS EVENING... CHANGING TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AFTER

MIDNIGHT. TOTAL SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION 1-3 INCHES. TOTAL ICE

ACCRUAL UP TO 0.25 OF AN INCH. TOTAL QPF 1.00. LOWS 28-30. FREEZING

RAIN TO RAIN FRIDAY MORNING... ENDING IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE

MID 30S.

...IN THE ADVISORY AREA INCLUDING ASHEBORO TO DURHAM TO OXFORD...

A WINTRY MIXTURE ARRIVING DURING THE EVENING... BECOMING FREEZING

RAIN MIXED SLEET OVERNIGHT. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY PARTIALS IN THE

1300 TO 1305/1550-1560 RANGE... AND SURFACE WET BULBS 31-32. THE

FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BECOME ALL RAIN BEFORE DAYBREAK. TOTAL

SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION LESS THAN 0.5. TOTAL ICE ACCRUAL UP TO 0.1.

LOWS 30-32... WHICH SHOULD MEAN MINIMAL IMPACTS ON AREA ROADS UNLESS

MORE SNOW/SLEET FALL AT THE ONSET DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY... RAIN... HEAVY AT TIMES. TEMPS RISING INTO THE UPPER 30S.

FINALS COMING UP IN AN HOUR.

 

It looks as if Raleigh is planning on putting my den, dining room and garage under a winter storm warning.  My living room and bedrooms will be under a winter weather advisory. One of the joys of living on a county line. Another is paying real estate taxes to two counties.

[burgertime]

I am really trying to understand why warnings and expanded advisories are being issued....

 

Anyone have any idea as to why?? 

 

I think GSP gave you all the answers you need. 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

NAM finally caved to the snow in WNC at the onset.  Snow to wintry mix.

[packfan98]

How does the NAM look?  Has it sped up or cooled off the warm nose like the other models.  I would love to see it come in line with the other modeling.  I really hope that sleet can save my power from going out!

[burgertime]

Well my wetbulb is above freezing now. Charlotte, NC is out of the game. Cant wait for the warm temps....i guess :/

 

My wetbulb is 32.4 currently. 

[packfan98]

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
251 PM EST THU MAR 6 2014

...WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...

.ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO
THE CAROLINAS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT EARLY
TONIGHT AS A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEAST
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST.

PERSON-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-DAVIDSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROXBORO...WINSTON-SALEM...GREENSBORO...
HIGH POINT...BURLINGTON...GRAHAM...LEXINGTON...THOMASVILLE
251 PM EST THU MAR 6 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON
EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR A WINTRY MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION...WHICH IS IN
EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST FRIDAY. THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT INCLUDING THE
TRIAD.

* HAZARD TYPES...A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN.

* ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO POSSIBLY 3 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET...
FOLLOWED BY UP TO A QUARTER INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION.

* TIMING...PRECIPITATION SHOULD START AS SNOW AND SLEET BETWEEN
7PM AND 9 PM THIS EVENING...TRANSITION TO SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOME ALL RAIN BEFORE PRECIPITATION
ENDS LATE FRIDAY MORNING OR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE
DAMAGE TO TREES AND POTENTIALLY SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING. THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL ICING SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING FRIDAY AS THE PRECIPITATION WILL
LIKELY TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN BY LATE MORNING.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S TONIGHT... SLOWLY
RISING INTO THE MID 30S FRIDAY MORNING.

[Disc]

18z has precip further north. Southern and SW VA get in on the action now.

[Disc]

Hour 18.

 

ROA:

GSO:

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

I am really trying to understand why warnings and expanded advisories are being issued....

 

Anyone have any idea as to why?? 

Seriously???... Have you been hiding under a rock? Read more.

[burgertime]

Well there's this on the RAP 

[SN_Lover]

My wetbulb is 32.4 currently. 

This sucks. I kinda hoped this system would work out. Well see, maybe it does...

 

 

Seriously???... Have you been hiding under a rock? Read more.

Calm down...

[Buddy1987]

18z has precip further north. Southern and SW VA get in on the action now.

Hour 27 raining cats and dogs?

[Disc]

mp184qcr, on 06 Mar 2014 - 2:59 PM, said:

This sucks. I kinda hoped this system would work out. Well see, maybe it does...

 

The storm hasn't even started yet. At least wait until it's happening to call bust.

[BullCityWx]

The storm hasn't even started yet. At least wait until it's happening to call bust.

 

Calling a storm a bust before it even begins...that's a special kind of annoying. 

[SN_Lover]

The storm hasn't even started yet. At least wait until it's happening to call bust.

 

Calling a storm a bust before it even begins...that's a special kind of annoying. 

 

 

 

"Well see, maybe it does..." I appreciate your criticism, but dont take my posts out of context. 

[deltadog03]

I think the dry air might win in N GA. We shall see.

[EmersonGA]

I think the dry air might win in N GA. We shall see.

It's raining pretty hard at my place.  35/31.

[Disc]

Buddy1987, on 06 Mar 2014 - 3:00 PM, said:

Hour 27 raining cats and dogs?

 

It's close, but yeah it appears to be rain.

[deltadog03]

I should clarify that, I think Northeast Georgia looks to see you the best chance of rain and precipitation going forward. No doubt there's going to be precipitation/rain near metro Atlanta and westward for now. I just think the heaviest us to be over Northeast Georgia going forward.

[Tyler Penland]

I think the dry air might win in N GA. We shall see.

 

 

It's just starting to precipitate here. A little sleet but mostly rain.  Still stout east winds with a wet bulb of 34. Hoping we can hang onto the dry air feed long enough to drop our wet bulbs 3 degrees.

[GaWx]

 The 18Z NAM is colder again in ATL-AHN (925's now below 0C again) while ~0.75"-1" of qpf falls. If that verifies, it may get quite interesting as we go through the afternoon and evening.

[SN_Lover]

 The 18Z NAM is colder again in ATL-AHN (925's now below 0C again) while ~0.75"-1" of qpf falls. If that verifies, it may get quite interesting as we go through the afternoon and evening.

Wetbulbs lowering also...Must be what the NWS is seeing. 

[packfan98]

 The 18Z NAM is colder again in ATL-AHN (925's now below 0C again) while ~0.75"-1" of qpf falls. If that verifies, it may get quite interesting as we go through the afternoon and evening.

 

Hi Larry, do you mind letting us know the temperature profile on the NAM for the regions under the Winter Storm Warning in NC?  The nam has been warmer aloft in the past runs.  The guys at the NWS have been discounting it a bit because the warm nose is not as pronounced on the other models.  Pretty important detail when it comes to power outages and ice accruals.  I'm hoping we can get more sleet instead of freezing rain.

 

If you don't have the time, I understand.  Thank you for your efforts!  We all appreciate it!

[NoDa-wx]

Wetbulbs lowering also...Must be what the NWS is seeing. 

 

but...charlotte was game over?  everyone knows wet bulbs have never come down before.

[msuwx]

Don't forget that since this is a true CAD event for a while tonight, wet bulbs can continue to drop even after precipitation onset due to the fresh supply of cold and dry air. Eventually that process shuts down, but it could play a role for a while tonight.