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3/6 - 3/7 Event is it this seasons last gasp?

WXinCanton

By WXinCanton,
in Southeastern States

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Lookout

Lookout

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I can't help but think of what would happen if it was just a little bit colder. the latest rap is ridiculous with 1.75 to 2 inches through 18 hours from northeast ga into sc with still heavy deformation zone precip falling. If it was just a couple of degrees colder, we would be talking about a truly historic snow. This is one of those times I wish freezing was at 35 instead of 32.

 

It really does make me sick when I see this and knowing that normally when we have an upper low like this, it's normally colder. Throw in the fact it has a perfect track, a strong damming high,  and it is too warm in the coldest winter in ages...well that really blows. Not saying it won't snow in places but nothing near what we could have gotten if it was just at most 2c colder throughout the atmosphere.

RAP_255_2014030617_F18_PCPIN_18_HR.png

 

RAP_255_2014030617_F18_CREF_SURFACE.png

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GaWx

GaWx

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Posted

I can't help but think of what would happen if it was just a little bit colder. the latest rap is ridiculous with 1.75 to 2 inches through 18 hours from northeast ga into sc with still heavy deformation zone precip falling. If it was just a couple of degrees colder, we would be talking about a truly historic snow. This is one of those times I wish freezing was at 35 instead of 32.

 

It really does make me sick when I see this and knowing that normally when we have an upper low like this, it's normally colder. Throw in the fact it has a perfect track, a strong damming high,  and it is too warm in the coldest winter in ages...well that really blows. Not saying it won't snow in places but nothing near what we could have gotten if it was just at most 2c colder throughout the atmosphere.

 

Lookout,

 How do you know it won't end up colder than 35? What is your current wetbulb at? And add dynamic cooling to that? I'd think a colder than 35 verification is quite possible. 32 or 33 quite possible.

 

Edit: radar looks like it is filling in nicely to the south of ATL just about on time!

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

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okay thanks. So wouldn't the majority of forecasts be way too conservative right now?

 

No, probably not. They're probably in the ballpark. There's really not any wiggle room with this. For areas that are in play, it is probably going to be a very big deal or a very big nothing. Impossible to forecast with any certainty.

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msuwx

msuwx

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Just to clarify what I put on Twitter about the RPM, it's precip field is spacious through the night, but then it very QUICKLY exits stage east in the morning. The big band on the upper left of the ULL sets up shop generally around I-95 as opposed to further west like a lot of other guidance.

 

I have seen this hinted at in a couple of other data sets, so it bears watching. Not saying it's going to, but I've seen the RPM fire the first warning shot in a situation like this and wind up being on to something.

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Lookout

Lookout

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Lookout,

 How do you know it won't end up colder than 35? What is your current wetbulb at? And add dynamic cooling to that? I'd think a colder than 35 verification is quite possible. 32 or 33 quite possible.

 

Edit: radar looks like it is filling in nicely to the south of ATL just about on time!

You missed  understood me. i was saying I wish that water froze at 35 instead of 32 so that all of it would be snow. As for how cold I get, right now it's 36 with a dp of 25 so my wetbulb is right at 32. I'm thinking I'll probably bottom out at 32 or 33 and that freezing rain chances are pretty low outside northeast ga above 1000 feet. So that means that if I get any winter precip, it would have to be because of some dynamically driven cooling aloft which is far far from a sure thing and isn't something i like to hang my hopes on since the rates, location, lift, cold air aloft, etc have to be just right.

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Lookout

Lookout

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I must say, I do find it funny that I am one of the coldest in the state right now at 36/31

Meanwhile it's in the lower 50s in northwest ga.

 

It's pretty unusual that there is not much difference in temps in north georgia vs south georgia in a CAD situation. In fact, I'm having a hard time ever remembering seeing that. But it's the case. Vidalia for example is 37. Considering how cold it is down there, one would think we would have no problem getting to below freezing way up here with a strong high over the northeast and cad but I think we probably come up just short unless we are able to mix down slightly colder air off the ground later tonight.

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deltadog03

deltadog03

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Meanwhile it's in the lower 50s in northwest ga.

 

It's pretty unusual that there is not much difference in temps in north georgia vs south georgia in a CAD situation. In fact, I'm having a hard time ever remembering seeing that. But it's the case. Vidalia for example is 37. Considering how cold it is down there, one would think we would have no problem getting to below freezing way up here with a strong high over the northeast and cad but I think we probably come up just short unless we are able to mix down slightly colder air off the ground later tonight.

Ya, I fully agree...When I saw that the models were cooling down me before y'all, I was like, I don't think I have ever seen that before.  

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

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I think it's just hitting the colder air. Seems to still be making good progress.

 

Yeah, that one batch is. Earlier in the loop, the moisture feed was well connected to the batch of precipitation farther south. As those storms have gotten going, it looks like the connection has been terminated. I don't know if that has any bearing or not on QPF for us, but we'll see....

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FLweather

FLweather

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Yep. I don't know if this model has any biases or not, though.

Here's the current radar. Moisture transport disruption in progress?

 

That don't look good over FL. Precip drying in N FL due to the squall line in the southern part. That will cut the totals.

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jburns

jburns

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Hate to be picky ... but how can Duke Energy make a map like that without Fayetteville on it? Or have we been renamed "Cape Fear"? I think that would upset folks along the coast.

lol It has High Point but no Winston-Salem or Greensboro.  That would ruffle some feathers around here.

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gritsnc

gritsnc

Posted
Posted

Here is what Tim Buckley is saying: WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UPDATE: A major ice event is possible across the Piedmont overnight tonight into Friday morning.

OVERVIEW: A low pressure system is moving now out of the Gulf of Mexico, poised to strengthen as it heads up the East Coast tonight. At the same time cold air is freely flowing south into the Piedmont from New England. Cold air at the surface with warm air above the surface will create a classic environment for a high-impact icing even in the Triad tonight and Friday morning.

PRECIP TYPE:
- Freezing rain will be the main threat for this system.
- A brief snow/sleet mix at the beginning of the storm tonight is possible.
- Precip will end as all rain midday Friday.

TIMING:
This afternoon: Clouds will thicken up. No precip expected.
Tonight: Precip will overspread the area by 7-9pm. Starting out as a mix of snow / sleet, transitioning into freezing rain overnight. Temperatures drop below freezing by midnight.
Friday morning: Freezing rain continues. Ice accumulations make for difficult travel.
Friday miday: All rain at this point, ending by dinner time.

ACCUMULATIONS:
- Light snow/sleet accumulation is possible across the immediate Triad. Generally less than 1". Higher totals would be possible toward the Foothills at the start.
- **MAJOR ICE ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY**
- Probability graphics below illustrate the icing well.
- Minor icing is a certainty, moderate icing (.10") is likely, major icing (.25") is very possible, and crippling icing (.50") can't be ruled out.

IMPACTS:
- Dangerous travel beginning overnight lasting through midday Friday.
- Scattered power outages are likely, with widespread power outages possible if major icing does occur.
- Downed limbs and trees can be expected with major icing.

SUMMARY:
This will be a high impact icing event. If it plays out the way some of the computer models indicate, some areas could be without power for several days.

Please be safe with the storm, and keep it with WFMY News 2 for updates.

Any questions, please ask. I'll try to answer quickly - but today is my day off so it may take some time.

- TB

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