franklin NCwx Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Cmc is a huge hit for snow in western nc. 0z ukie was all snow for the mtns too. Nam holding on to that 850 warm nose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 I just checked out the Canadian. Nobody has mentioned it, so I thought it must be terrible. Or maybe people just don't care anymore. Anyway, I would LOVE for that solution to come true. It destroys RDU with heavy precipitation and the deform band. Just tons of precip. I assume it would be mostly rain. But the 850s are between 0 and 2 for much of that, probably close to 0/1 for a good while. I have no idea which model will end up being right, though. The Nam and the CMC are probably way too overdone with precip. But if we're going to get any snow at all, the CMC gives us the best chance of any model I've seen. Just checked the cmc and saw the deform band right over us. Unfortunately it does look to be rain. If we were just a little colder this could be an awesome snowstorm. Big fat flakes of wet snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Just checked the cmc and saw the deform band right over us. Unfortunately it does look to be rain. If we were just a little colder this could be an awesome snowstorm. Big fat flakes of wet snow! All it would take is for temps to be a couple of degrees colder tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Just checked the cmc and saw the deform band right over us. Unfortunately it does look to be rain. If we were just a little colder this could be an awesome snowstorm. Big fat flakes of wet snow! I have no idea what surface temps look like or if there are any other warm layers present (which there probably are), but all we need is like 1 stinking degree at 850. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 I have no idea what surface temps look like or if there are any other warm layers present (which there probably are), but all we need is like 1 stinking degree at 850. The surface is on fire, though I doubt that's right. It doesn't really get below freezing anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 GSP is seriously doubting the warm nose on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 The surface is on fire, though I doubt that's right. It doesn't really get below freezing anywhere. Nice. Prolly too warm, but at this point, just about every model is "too something" away from being ideal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 havent seen the latest from RAH posted: .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...AS OF 1145 AM THURSDAY...THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUED TO BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO NC THISMORNING. THE STRONGEST DRY AIR ADVECTION HAS BEEN SHIFTING INTO THEWESTERN PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS FROM THE NNE. IN THE EAST... THE FLOW ISBEGINNING TO CONTAIN MORE OF AN ONSHORE COMPONENT... WITH DEW POINTSSTABILIZING OR EVEN RISING A BIT. ONE KEY PART OF THE UPCOMING EVENTWILL BE THE ROLE THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE PLAYS. FOR NOW... IT APPEARSTHAT THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCEOF WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS... AS IT APPEARS THE COLD AIR DAMMINGWILL BE STRONGEST THERE.FOR THE AFTERNOON... THICKENING CLOUDINESS. A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THESOUTH LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS GENERALLY 40-45 (HIGHER END NUMBERSSOUTH).CONTEMPLATING THE LATEST DATA FOR TONIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE FOR AWINTER STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE NW PIEDMONT FOR SNOW/SLEETCHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT. THE COLD NOSE APPEARS VERYSTRONG AND TEMPS MAY FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S THROUGH 12Z OR SOFRIDAY BEFORE GRADUAL WARMING FROM THE TOP DOWN TOMORROW. THE MAINAREA OF CONCERN FOR WARNING CRITERIA WILL LIKELY BE ALONG AND NORTHAND WEST OF I-85. MUCH MORE AS WE LOOK OVER THE LATEST DATA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Matthew East @eastwx 2m Second RPM run in a row that shifts precip out of foothills very quickly. I've noted in the past its warning shots shouldn't be ignored Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 This is such a complicated system. From ones perspective this is good/bad depending on location. I think the ZR threat is more going up along 95 and west to Ral. Maybe less precip over for the mountains more snow in the middle of the state. From yesterdays run till now there is most definitely an actual shift east in the precip coverage by atleast a couple hundred miles. Maybe more of GFS colder type solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Matthew East @eastwx 2m Second RPM run in a row that shifts precip out of foothills very quickly. I've noted in the past its warning shots shouldn't be ignored what does that mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Matthew East @eastwx 2m Second RPM run in a row that shifts precip out of foothills very quickly. I've noted in the past its warning shots shouldn't be ignored The RPM was the first model to start screwing everyone outside the Triad of a major winter storm with the 1/17/13 ULL... I believe that is part of what he is referring to with its warning shots. (This one) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 what does that mean? Sounds like the foothills get less QPF? I guess he's forecasting a less of an event than what may or may not be believed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Bingo snowniner! what does that mean? If people would go back and look at early models runs from yesterday, 6z,12z,18z, etc etc... They all showed a flooding deluge in AL,GA for this time frame today. AL,W GA has pretty well been bone dry today.. They heaviest precip axis is a couple hundred miles to the east from what earlier runs showed. So really the heaviest qpf is going to fall from the mountains/Foothill east mainly in the central piedmont and coastal plain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Already have some light precip here. It's a mix of rain and sleet. At any rate, Considering how dry the column is supposed to be, it's a bit surprising that even light returns are hitting the ground. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Matthew East @eastwx 2m Second RPM run in a row that shifts precip out of foothills very quickly. I've noted in the past its warning shots shouldn't be ignored its been in the back of my mind since last night. most of the precip will be to my south and East Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 We don't have a vertically stacked system with this, so you don't have all the levels on the same page when it comes to precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Already have some light precip here. It's a mix of rain and sleet. At any rate, Considering how dry the column is supposed to be, it's a bit surprising that even light returns are hitting the ground. . Lookout, I'm very curious to see what you get and how close to 32 you fall. What is your current temp.? Edit: after reaching nearly 45, mine has fallen back to 43.0 during the last hour or so, My lowest was ~39. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Looked like snow to me on the backside with the euro Sent from my HTC One using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Already have some light precip here. It's a mix of rain and sleet. At any rate, Considering how dry the column is supposed to be, it's a bit surprising that even light returns are hitting the ground. .Location? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 12z Euro snow map is so ridiculous, even if it's sleet/frzn it would be nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Looked like snow to me on the backside with the euro Sent from my HTC One Sure does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 12z Euro snow map is so ridiculous, even if it's sleet/frzn it would be nuts. Spill it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncwxlvr Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 RDU DP is up to 23°F (-5°C) and rising. Looks like onshore flow is going to be a problem in the Triangle area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 There's a spot in southern guilford county that shoes 23.4" on the snow map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 RDU DP is up to 23°F (-5°C) and rising. Looks like onshore flow is going to be a problem in the Triangle area. Yep, DP's are not going to be able to help us today, we are just to far east, it could get ugly for the triad though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 The Euro destroys the Triad. OMG. So much precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 The Euro destroys the Triad. OMG. So much precip. 850's bounce between 0 and +1 from 0z on tonight on the Euro for the triad to RDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 For entertainment: (That's a lot of frozen precip, though not snow... though you probably can't rule out some snow mixing in at times) Anyways, I have to run. Adios! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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