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3/6 - 3/7 Event is it this seasons last gasp?

WXinCanton

By WXinCanton,
in Southeastern States

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Lookout

Lookout

Posted
Posted

 

Boy, that aint too far off: 

 

Date: 18 hour AVN valid 6Z FRI 7 MAR 14
Station: KCLT
Latitude: 35.22
Longitude: -80.93
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W
mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
0 1000 155
SFC 994 206 0.2 -0.5 94 0.8 -0.1 17 18 273.9 274.5 273.4 283.9 3.69
2 950 564 -3.0 -3.3 98 0.3 -3.1 30 39 274.1 274.6 272.8 282.7 3.15
3 900 994 -0.7 -1.1 97 0.4 -0.9 60 43 280.8 281.5 277.5 291.7 3.91
4 850 1453 1.2 0.9 98 0.3 1.1 76 35 287.4 288.3 281.8 301.1 4.82
5 800 1941 0.5 0.2 98 0.3 0.4 76 29 291.7 292.5 283.7 305.7 4.86
6 750 2457 -1.9 -2.0 99 0.1 -2.0 77 28 294.5 295.3 284.3 307.4 4.40
7 700 3004 -4.4 -4.7 98 0.2 -4.6 93 26 297.6 298.3 285.0 309.1 3.87
8 650 3586 -6.2 -6.4 99 0.2 -6.2 131 34 302.0 302.6 286.4 313.1 3.65
9 600 4210 -8.6 -8.9 98 0.3 -8.7 156 37 306.1 306.7 287.5 316.3 3.25
10 550 4879 -13.3 -13.5 98 0.2 -13.3 181 33 308.4 308.8 287.5 316.2 2.46
11 500 5598 -18.4 -19.8 88 1.5 -18.7 195 27 310.6 310.9 287.3 315.8 1.59
12 450 6374 -24.5 -26.3 85 1.8 -24.9 198 20 312.4 312.6 287.3 315.8 0.99
13 400 7220 -31.3 -34.9 70 3.7 -31.7 194 20 314.4 314.4 287.5 316.1 0.49
14 350 8153 -38.1 -45.5 46 7.4 -38.7 185 25 317.3 317.4 288.1 318.0 0.19
15 300 9194 -46.6 -52.6 51 6.0 -46.9 184 24 319.7 319.7 288.8 320.0 0.10
16 250 10388 -51.2 -60.7 31 9.5 -51.4 208 45 330.0 330.0 291.7 330.1 0.04
17 200 11833 -50.2 -61.0 27 10.8 -50.6 220 66 353.2 353.2 297.4 353.5 0.05
18 150 13694 -54.5 -68.5 16 14.1 -54.8 235 57 376.2 376.3 301.6 376.4 0.03
19 100 16250 -60.8 -80.3 6 19.6 -61.0 249 43 410.3 410.3 306.6 410.4 0.01
TRP 0
WND 0
 
Date: 24 hour AVN valid 12Z FRI 7 MAR 14
Station: KCLT
Latitude: 35.22
Longitude: -80.93
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W
mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
0 1000 135
SFC 991 206 -0.1 -0.6 96 0.6 -0.3 25 17 273.8 274.4 273.3 283.8 3.68
2 950 544 -2.5 -3.2 94 0.8 -2.8 33 37 274.7 275.2 273.1 283.3 3.16
3 900 977 1.3 -0.4 88 1.7 0.5 55 37 282.8 283.5 278.8 294.4 4.12
4 850 1438 1.7 0.1 89 1.6 1.0 66 31 287.9 288.7 281.7 300.8 4.52
5 800 1925 -0.3 -0.8 96 0.6 -0.6 73 26 290.8 291.6 283.0 303.9 4.49
6 750 2440 -2.2 -2.4 99 0.2 -2.3 89 21 294.2 294.9 284.1 306.7 4.27
7 700 2986 -4.6 -4.8 99 0.2 -4.7 112 18 297.4 298.1 284.9 308.9 3.83
8 650 3567 -7.3 -7.4 100 0.0 -7.4 130 16 300.7 301.3 285.7 311.0 3.38
9 600 4187 -10.8 -11.2 97 0.4 -10.9 146 9 303.7 304.2 286.1 312.1 2.71
10 550 4851 -14.7 -18.3 74 3.6 -15.7 211 5 306.7 307.0 286.0 312.0 1.65
11 500 5567 -19.0 -26.1 53 7.2 -20.5 238 6 309.9 310.1 286.4 313.0 0.91
12 450 6342 -25.1 -30.2 62 5.1 -25.9 16 3 311.7 311.8 286.8 314.1 0.69
13 400 7184 -32.7 -35.4 77 2.6 -33.1 35 9 312.4 312.5 286.8 314.1 0.47
14 350 8109 -40.1 -47.3 46 7.1 -40.6 78 1 314.6 314.6 287.1 315.2 0.15
15 300 9146 -45.9 -58.5 23 12.6 -46.3 196 11 320.6 320.6 289.0 320.8 0.05
16 250 10351 -48.1 -60.4 23 12.2 -48.5 215 35 334.5 334.5 293.0 334.7 0.05
17 200 11820 -48.7 -60.6 24 11.9 -49.1 229 51 355.6 355.6 297.9 355.8 0.05
18 150 13695 -52.9 -70.7 10 17.8 -53.3 241 52 379.0 379.0 302.1 379.1 0.02
19 100 16259 -60.8 -81.4 5 20.6 -61.1 252 39 410.2 410.2 306.5 410.3 0.01
TRP 0
WND 0

Nope but you know with our big winter storm a few weeks back, when the precip first moved all the models had only the 850mb level above freezing and it was only 0.5c. After starting as sleet, it went to just plain rain for several hours. I have no idea how considering it was the initial waa precip and how cold the sounding was. So although the warm layer might look unimpressive on the soundings, it still could end up throwing a surprise at you.

 

at any rate, fwiw the prior runs of the gfs has busted badly in precip over alabama so far today. Virtually nothing has fallen over southern half of alabama where the gfs had a ton of precip. The gfs had that precip moving northeast and cooling the column here and eventually over the upstate. Since it never materialized, that could mean trouble for those hoping for snow outside the mountains. Still a bit early to say for sure though as the gfs still develops heavier precip but the rap is woefully unimpressive but right now it's doing a better job than the nam/gfs.

 

Also of note, as I made in the observations thread the temps in central ga have dropped a lot more than I would have guessed given their temps/dewpoints just a couple of hours ago. Milledgville had a wetulb 2 hours ago of 37..yet they dropped to 34 without the dewpoint rising.  Will be interesting to see if it gets even colder in north ga/upstate/western nc since the boundary layer is considerably colder and drier, as well as mid level temps. Just something to maybe watch.

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WxBlue

WxBlue

Posted
Posted

I really can't see Asheville getting 8-12 inches. Maybe higher elevation above 4,000 feet, but not at 2,000 feet where Asheville is since it's drier down here and that warm nose cutting into snow some. Sometimes I wish meteorologists take the elevations into account, but I suppose it's asking too much for those outside mountains since they don't have time to know the area.

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K4CF

K4CF

Posted
Posted

 

Overall, I'm sticking with my map from yesterday. This is playing out about like this. Snow in northwest NC turns to sleet. Several inches of snow from Asheville to Boone to southwest VA mountains but the max snow should be near Boone to the middle NC foothills where most moisture arrives when its cold enough aloft. The worst part will be in Greensboro and just west of the Triangle down to middle NC, Salisbury, Hickory, Statesville to Forest City Marion areas where temps will... fall into upper 20's during the night and freezing rain and sleet is falling hard. The high pressure remains inland all the way up until 7 am Friday morning, then we lose that tap of dry cold dewpoint air, and that allows temps at the surface to finally go above freezing.

For southern and middle Virginia, it depends on when the moisture comes that far north, while the high is still in position. It looks like the best moisture is arriving in Lynchburg to Richmond just around 7 to 10 am, and by then, the time of day and the fact the high is pulling out means less ice and snow threat there, so you see a tight graident on how this evolves. For upper SC, the models may not be quite cold enough. I don't trust the surface temps just yet when it shows the 32 line stopping at the GSP area, but it could.Its always looked close there.

For northeast GA, same..the sub 32 degree air could come into that region tonight and lock in at the surface. Its very close, adn that could mean a big ice storm there as well. don't let your guard down. This will come down to watching radars and temps, observations tonight, not the models anymore.

Bottom line is this looks pretty bad for the middle and western part of NC because of perfect timing and evolution of the storm. I expect some power outages by dawn tomorrow somewhere in the tarheel state and possibly for southern tier of counties in VA as well, possibly even northeast GA and upper SC too..

Map issued yesterday.

 
1947814_795608920469165_2128575946_n.jpg

 

Can you share Robert's snow amounts for mtns around Boone?  Cant see the map you posted on my web server here

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rduwx

rduwx

Posted
Posted

Haha! Whatever dude. Brick, avert your eyes!

 

Yeah, I don't see that happening. I don't remember seeing any model's supporting 850's cold enough for snow in the RDU area. I would love to be wrong though.

 

EDIT: Other than the 12z gfs...LOL.

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dsaur

dsaur

Posted
Posted

might get a little little little something later

I'm curious what GB, It'll be warm the next two weeks, and the Gov's crack team of weather seers is telling him about potential fun on the connector, now that the NWS is on his sit list because they don't speak peabrainese, lol.  T

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted

 

Yeah, I don't see that happening.  I don't remember seeing any model's where the 850's were cold enough to support snow in the RDU area.  I would love to be wrong though.

 

I just checked out the Canadian. Nobody has mentioned it, so I thought it must be terrible. Or maybe people just don't care anymore. Anyway, I would LOVE for that solution to come true. It destroys RDU with heavy precipitation and the deform band. Just tons of precip. I assume it would be mostly rain. But the 850s are between 0 and 2 for much of that, probably close to 0/1 for a good while. I have no idea which model will end up being right, though. The Nam and the CMC are probably way too overdone with precip. But if we're going to get any snow at all, the CMC gives us the best chance of any model I've seen.

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packfan98

packfan98

Posted
Posted

from NWS Raleigh:

 

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1145 AM THURSDAY...

THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUED TO BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO NC THIS
MORNING. THE STRONGEST DRY AIR ADVECTION HAS BEEN SHIFTING INTO THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS FROM THE NNE. IN THE EAST... THE FLOW IS
BEGINNING TO CONTAIN MORE OF AN ONSHORE COMPONENT... WITH DEW POINTS
STABILIZING OR EVEN RISING A BIT. ONE KEY PART OF THE UPCOMING EVENT
WILL BE THE ROLE THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE PLAYS. FOR NOW... IT APPEARS
THAT THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE
OF WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS... AS IT APPEARS THE COLD AIR DAMMING
WILL BE STRONGEST THERE.

FOR THE AFTERNOON... THICKENING CLOUDINESS. A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
SOUTH LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS GENERALLY 40-45 (HIGHER END NUMBERS
SOUTH).

CONTEMPLATING THE LATEST DATA FOR TONIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE FOR A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE NW PIEDMONT FOR SNOW/SLEET
CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT. THE COLD NOSE APPEARS VERY
STRONG AND TEMPS MAY FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S THROUGH 12Z OR SO
FRIDAY BEFORE GRADUAL WARMING FROM THE TOP DOWN TOMORROW. THE MAIN
AREA OF CONCERN FOR WARNING CRITERIA WILL LIKELY BE ALONG AND NORTH
AND WEST OF I-85. MUCH MORE AS WE LOOK OVER THE LATEST DATA.

&&

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