Chattownsnow Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 That deformation band in N GA is insane in the 18z GFS. If only it were colder that would be an astounding amount of snowfall. ugh, oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted March 1, 2014 Author Share Posted March 1, 2014 That deformation band in N GA is insane in the 18z GFS. If only it were colder that would be an astounding amount of snowfall. ugh, oh well. Yeah, was just looking at that. So close. That would be 8 to 10 inches IF it were snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaffneyPeach Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Meanwhile, GSP updates their facebook page with this: US National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC An area of low pressure may develop over the northern Gulf of Mexico on Thursday and move to the southeast coastline by Friday. Moisture from this system could interact with cold air in place across the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia to create the chance of wintry precipitation. There is a great deal of uncertainty with regard to the track of the low pressure system, the degree of cold air that will be in place, and the amount of precipitation that will fall. It is far too early to make any plans with regard to this system, but continue to closely watch the forecast through the upcoming week in case a significant winter weather event becomes more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark Dee Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Nowhere there do I see "possible outbreak". Also interesting that you decided to cherry-pick the discussion and forgot to add the remainder of it... Please, continue in the future to critique my posts. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark Dee Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Per attached link, some of the Gulf water remains as warm as 80F. http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42003 Would greatly energize a possible squall or frontal TS line on Thursday into FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Please, continue in the future to critique my posts. Thank you. It's bad form to post part of an NWS statement that expresses concern over a possible event and leave out the rest, which downplays the event. If you continue to do that, expect frequent "critiques". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 CIP's analogs for today are just insane, about 75% are big hitters. Two of the biggest storms to affect the area on this list... http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=SE&model=GFS212&fhr=F120&flg= One of the heavy hitters, don't need to point out the other one, plus there are several others. http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.19830325.gif Also, mean snowfall... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark Dee Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 It's bad form to post part of an NWS statement that expresses concern over a possible event and leave out the rest, which downplays the event. If you continue to do that, expect frequent "critiques". You are correct. However, I will do all that I can to hi-light the significant risk of severe weather in that region on Thursday. The rain shield is iffy, the 60 kts of VWS is not. Appreciate your opinion and also Andyhb. The weather event will play itself out; be safe and best to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 You are correct. However, I will do all that I can to hi-light the significant risk of severe weather in that region on Thursday. The rain shield is iffy, the 60 kts of VWS is not. Appreciate your opinion and also Andyhb. The weather event will play itself out; be safe and best to you. I know you are new to the board, but generally, unless you are a met, stay within your own sub forum. Especially if you are going to cherry-pick the NWS statements in order to gain notoriety. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 You are correct. However, I will do all that I can to hi-light the significant risk of severe weather in that region on Thursday. The rain shield is iffy, the 60 kts of VWS is not. Appreciate your opinion and also Andyhb. The weather event will play itself out; be safe and best to you. You need to go back and reread both of their responses again. That being said, there is also an etiquette thread you should read, and you may find helpful too. Reading more and posting less is also another suggestion.....have a nice day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 well GSP has a hazardous weather outlook for n. ga, upstate and wnc for next thursday and friday for a possible significant winter weather event. say its a little early right now but for folks to stay tuned to the weather for 3-6/7 next thursday and friday. GSP must be seeing something for them to already be mentioning a possible winter event that far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 well GSP has a hazardous weather outlook for n. ga, upstate and wnc for next thursday and friday for a possible significant winter weather event. say its a little early right now but for folks to stay tuned to the weather for 3-6/7 next thursday and friday. GSP must be seeing something for them to already be mentioning a possible winter event that far out. i would tend to agree with you - as several of our more knowledgeable posters have been saying it looks "interesting" and there appears to be some support, although it is very far out at this point. for them to go ahead and mention it for the end of next week, and getting well into the first week or march, no less, is telling me winter might not be quite done yet lol the cad signal etc. looks great, i just guess i am still a bit dubious as we get start heading out of the usual CAD/zr period (for n ga at least) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Maybe it the time of year, but this looks like it could either go big, or go poof, equally easily Kind of fun, knowing after the Blizzard that all things are possible in March. I've seen some of my deepest snow, and the best danged storm ever, even if there wasn't much snow, I've even seen ice. When I was a kid I thought March was a great winter month.. especially for surprises..and now that I know something, I'm only marginally less inclined....and only after the 15th.....and I've seen what Ulls can do even up to April. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 The 500mb wave in the southeast on the Euro Ensemble looks really, really good...it's what you would want to see in this area for a good winter storm in terms of strength / track. The problem is a lack of deep, cold air. No north atlantic blocking, so the window for cold is short. I do think the potential is there for the early portion of the storm to have a wintry mix in this area due to the good cold air damming look, which is typically as cold or colder than the models show, as others have commented. I'm not really in the camp of thinking that you can't have icing in this area in early March. If the setup is there with a good, cold air source, I don't see why it can't happen, and I suspect it's happened in the past...maybe GaWx has some cases. The sfc low on the Euro Ens did trend west this run...its track being just barely off the SE coast...whereas it has been steadfast at tracking it across Daytona Beach, then off the SE coast (more off the coast than this run). Grit/Folks, 1. Check out 3/6/48 as that was a NC/SC/GA major ZR/IP storm due to great CAD and a Miller B. ATL, AGS, CAE, GSP, AVL, CLT, and GSO all had ZR and/or IP. It was almost all ZR at ATL, AGS, and CAE. MCN just missed ZR with coldest of 33. RDU missed ZR with coldest of 35. - ATL had 1"+ of ZR with coldest of 29. - AGS/CAE had under .10" of ZR with coldest of 32 and 3-4 hours of ZR - GSP had ~16 hours of ZR/IP adding to ~0.80" liquid/0.4" IP with coldest 29 - AVL had ~17 hours of mixed precip. adding to 0.69" liquid/1.0" of accum. with coldest of 24 - CLT had ~10 hours of ZR/IP adding to ~0.42" liquid/T of IP with coldest of 30 - GSO had ~12 hours of ZR/IP adding to ~0.80" liquid/T of IP with coldest of 31 3/5/48 wx map: http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/dwm/1948/19480305.djvu 3/6/48 wx map: http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/dwm/1948/19480306.djvu 3/7/48 wx map: http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/dwm/1948/19480307.djvu ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 2. March, 1960: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/gsp/localdat/cases/2010/Review_Feb-Mar_1960.pdf - 2nd had a storm that had ZR/IP in addition to snow in some of the Carolina locations. At ATL, it was a major ZR with coldest of 29. - 9th had a sig. to major ZR in ATL of 0.80" (~12 hours worth) with coldest of 30 but it was largely snow in Carolinas - 15th-16th had a widespread Carolina ZR thanks to a great CAD provided by an eastern Canadian high that wedged down. ATL's coldest was 34 with rain --------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3. March 2-3, 1962: http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/dwm/1962/19620303.djvu - Severe ZR mainly inland E Ga into C & E SC but major stuff just missed SAV/CHS. Caused by big 1046 mb high centered over Hudson Bay wedging all the way down into the SE US! 4. March 25-6, 1971: http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/dwm/1971/19710322-19710328.djvu - Major ZR ATL of 1"+ of ZR on 3/25 with coldest right at 32 at airport (major ZR started a little north of airport) - GSP had 6.6" of SN/IP but also ~0.40" of ZR mainly on 3/26 with coldest of 30 - CLT had 5.4" of SN/IP on 3/25 but also had 0.25" of IP/ZR (~10 hours) on 3/26 with coldest of 31 - RDU had 5.3" of mainly SN mostly on 3/26 but had some IP/ZR and coldest of 30 - GSO had 3.3" of mainly SN 3/25-6 but with some IP and coldest of 27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Thanks GaWx, those are all good examples of fairly widespread March icing events...got to think there have been others that were limited to just the NC Foothills over to Greensboro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Thank You for the great work Larry.... I think tonights runs, especially the euro, will be big ones. I know we still have time, but in my exp. when the euro wavers its either going to go back to the solution the next run or 2, or its gonna show the new look again and again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted March 2, 2014 Author Share Posted March 2, 2014 GFS looks a little stronger at 5h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 GFS looks meh again. High is further north in to SE Canada and the energy is a bit quicker and just blah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I know you are new to the board, but generally, unless you are a met, stay within your own sub forum. Especially if you are going to cherry-pick the NWS statements in order to gain notoriety. I'd have to disagree with you there, CAD. That makes us sound quite uppity and stand-off-ish. I don't want to discourage others from posting in our sub-forum. There are several non-mets from other sub-forums who will occasionally drop by, and I take no issue with that. In fact, I welcome their participation. andyhb and Highzenberg are two that come to mind, quickly, and I'm sure others could quickly name a few more. Sometimes the weather is a whole lot more interesting in another part of the country. Just because you don't live there, you shouldn't be prevented from discussing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Well, I am affraid this one might be DOA when it comes to winter weather. YES, there is plenty of time, but not liking some of the trends folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Well needless to say the GFS does not look good. Trends are not good today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 agreed Burger...The confluence just gets destroyed up there and its game set and match from the beginning. EURO bothered me today with the ULL weaker. King might come in tonight and put this sucker to bed.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 We're due for a good soaking rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 The 00z GFS is a nice 32-34 degree rainfall for the northwestern Piedmont, verbatim. CLT and RDU are a hair warmer in the mid-30s. 850s are mostly in the 2-4C range (maybe a little lower at times in the NW Piedmont and northern foothills). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Thanks GaWx, those are all good examples of fairly widespread March icing events...got to think there have been others that were limited to just the NC Foothills over to Greensboro Grit, YW. I added this one to the list: March 2-3, 1962: http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/dwm/1962/19620303.djvu - Severe ZR mainly inland E Ga into C & E SC but major stuff just missed SAV/CHS. Caused by big 1046 mb high centered over Hudson Bay wedging all the way down into the SE US! Summary: 1948, 1960 (several), 1962, and 1971. We're "overdue" fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted March 2, 2014 Author Share Posted March 2, 2014 Yep, not looking so good. Not much of a CAD signal at all. And the ULL doesnt cut it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Hmmm, I don't know, the sfc high never gets east of Maine through the bulk of the precip, with a solid damming signature. Verbatim, it's a cold rain with temps close to, or just above freezing as sjames mentioned, but we've seen this type of setup trend colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 agree that the wedging might** be ok for yall, but that will not cut it around here. More than likely. The ULL is just pathetic on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 CMC is an oh hell no! hahah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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