WSNC Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 I think 12z gfs looks good for the triad with less precip. This will allow for colder surface temps and better accretion. I think the 12z nam was too warm due to being so juiced up on precip. 12z nam didn't seem right. TW 12z GFS still has the triad at 32 tomorrow at 1pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Robert holds firm. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 12z GFS still has the triad at 32 tomorrow at 1pm.For those like me that enjoy ice storms, I know what the nam was showing would not produce much. Rates were way too high to do much good. The gfs is a totally different story. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 FWIW.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 One thing the RGEM did was shift the LP more east with it's 12z run compared to it's 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Not sure what parts of central NC he is talking about, though. WxSouth Power outages by daybreak Friday in parts of central to west NC. Still threshold temps upper SC, ne GA. 1 degree means big diff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 you took the words out of my mouth that is a lot of convection wrapped up down there.... which is going to steal alot of our moisture.. i'm thinking the .5 to .75 qpf as originally models is more likely to occur.... its not like the temps are going to plunge below freezing after this event and rapid melting will occur... if some one gets all frozen out of this storm i will be suprised.. i'm sure everyone will see rain before its all said and done.... I don't think anyone has argued against almost everyone changing over to rain at some point. I would expect even most of the harder hit areas to change over to rain sometime after daybreak Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Not sure what parts of central NC he is talking about, though. WxSouth Power outages by daybreak Friday in parts of central to west NC. Still threshold temps upper SC, ne GA. 1 degree means big diff He doesn't know for sure, his last statement is all that matters, have to wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 WxSouth NAM overdone on amounts. GFS realistic on QPF and surface temps. Big icestorm heart of NC, tight graident in south VA. Then too warm mid VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 I think the gfs implies many finish off as some drizzle rather than a snow/ice melting deluge. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WSNC Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 850's are colder on 12z GFS run for triad and should help with a little more front end mix. Model trends look good this morning for this being a significant event in this area. I would expect the advisory to be replaced with a warning shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Also, the NAM has the SLP was west of the GFS and the RGEM, probably why it's so warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 I think the gfs implies many finish off as some drizzle rather than a snow/ice melting deluge. TW Looks snowier for us, too. I'm probably going to wish I lived 10 miles further north by the time this one is over... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 If the GFS was down on QPF, is it still a big event in WNC? Edit: I know temps are fine, but QPF was overmodeled in the last event (at least in my area) dont want to be duped again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Not sure what parts of central NC he is talking about, though. WxSouth Power outages by daybreak Friday in parts of central to west NC. Still threshold temps upper SC, ne GA. 1 degree means big diff Not Raleigh, I'd say Greensboro/Burlington points west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Not Raleigh, I'd say Greensboro/Burlington points west OK, but I'd like to know what he meant by it. Central NC can cover a lot of ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 850's are colder on 12z GFS run for triad and should help with a little more front end mix. Model trends look good this morning for this being a significant event in this area. I would expect the advisory to be replaced with a warning shortly.In general I'd agree. However, if the nam is right, I think we get about 1/4" of glaze followed by flood warnings. Lol. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparkync Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Looks snowier for us, too. I'm probably going to wish I lived 10 miles further north by the time this one is over... I'm just to the left of the 4 to 8 inch in yadkin co. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 On DT's map I was a few miles from 4-8 inches and a few miles from nothing but sleet and freezing rain.haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 OK, but I'd like to know what he meant by it. Central NC can cover a lot of ground. I would guess he means between 85-77, that's what I would mean if I was him. And western NC is west of 77. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 WxSouth Overall, I'm sticking with my map from yesterday. This is playing out about like this. Snow in northwest NC turns to sleet. Several inches of snow from Asheville to Boone to southwest VA mountains but the max snow should be near Boone to the middle NC foothills where most moisture arrives when its cold enough aloft. The worst part will be in Greensboro and just west of the Triangle down to middle NC, Salisbury, Hickory, Statesville to Forest City Marion areas where temps will... fall into upper 20's during the night and freezing rain and sleet is falling hard. The high pressure remains inland all the way up until 7 am Friday morning, then we lose that tap of dry cold dewpoint air, and that allows temps at the surface to finally go above freezing.For southern and middle Virginia, it depends on when the moisture comes that far north, while the high is still in position. It looks like the best moisture is arriving in Lynchburg to Richmond just around 7 to 10 am, and by then, the time of day and the fact the high is pulling out means less ice and snow threat there, so you see a tight graident on how this evolves. For upper SC, the models may not be quite cold enough. I don't trust the surface temps just yet when it shows the 32 line stopping at the GSP area, but it could.Its always looked close there. For northeast GA, same..the sub 32 degree air could come into that region tonight and lock in at the surface. Its very close, adn that could mean a big ice storm there as well. don't let your guard down. This will come down to watching radars and temps, observations tonight, not the models anymore. Bottom line is this looks pretty bad for the middle and western part of NC because of perfect timing and evolution of the storm. I expect some power outages by dawn tomorrow somewhere in the tarheel state and possibly for southern tier of counties in VA as well, possibly even northeast GA and upper SC too.. Map issued yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 WxSouth west of Raleigh it gets worst fast. GSO mostly in upper 20's for the event, but RDU and Wake County gets around 31 to 32 up until 7 am, then goes above. Its very borderline there, much worst each mile west you go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Boy, that aint too far off: Date: 18 hour AVN valid 6Z FRI 7 MAR 14 Station: KCLT Latitude: 35.22 Longitude: -80.93 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 0 1000 155 SFC 994 206 0.2 -0.5 94 0.8 -0.1 17 18 273.9 274.5 273.4 283.9 3.69 2 950 564 -3.0 -3.3 98 0.3 -3.1 30 39 274.1 274.6 272.8 282.7 3.15 3 900 994 -0.7 -1.1 97 0.4 -0.9 60 43 280.8 281.5 277.5 291.7 3.91 4 850 1453 1.2 0.9 98 0.3 1.1 76 35 287.4 288.3 281.8 301.1 4.82 5 800 1941 0.5 0.2 98 0.3 0.4 76 29 291.7 292.5 283.7 305.7 4.86 6 750 2457 -1.9 -2.0 99 0.1 -2.0 77 28 294.5 295.3 284.3 307.4 4.40 7 700 3004 -4.4 -4.7 98 0.2 -4.6 93 26 297.6 298.3 285.0 309.1 3.87 8 650 3586 -6.2 -6.4 99 0.2 -6.2 131 34 302.0 302.6 286.4 313.1 3.65 9 600 4210 -8.6 -8.9 98 0.3 -8.7 156 37 306.1 306.7 287.5 316.3 3.25 10 550 4879 -13.3 -13.5 98 0.2 -13.3 181 33 308.4 308.8 287.5 316.2 2.46 11 500 5598 -18.4 -19.8 88 1.5 -18.7 195 27 310.6 310.9 287.3 315.8 1.59 12 450 6374 -24.5 -26.3 85 1.8 -24.9 198 20 312.4 312.6 287.3 315.8 0.99 13 400 7220 -31.3 -34.9 70 3.7 -31.7 194 20 314.4 314.4 287.5 316.1 0.49 14 350 8153 -38.1 -45.5 46 7.4 -38.7 185 25 317.3 317.4 288.1 318.0 0.19 15 300 9194 -46.6 -52.6 51 6.0 -46.9 184 24 319.7 319.7 288.8 320.0 0.10 16 250 10388 -51.2 -60.7 31 9.5 -51.4 208 45 330.0 330.0 291.7 330.1 0.04 17 200 11833 -50.2 -61.0 27 10.8 -50.6 220 66 353.2 353.2 297.4 353.5 0.05 18 150 13694 -54.5 -68.5 16 14.1 -54.8 235 57 376.2 376.3 301.6 376.4 0.03 19 100 16250 -60.8 -80.3 6 19.6 -61.0 249 43 410.3 410.3 306.6 410.4 0.01 TRP 0 WND 0 Date: 24 hour AVN valid 12Z FRI 7 MAR 14 Station: KCLT Latitude: 35.22 Longitude: -80.93 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 0 1000 135 SFC 991 206 -0.1 -0.6 96 0.6 -0.3 25 17 273.8 274.4 273.3 283.8 3.68 2 950 544 -2.5 -3.2 94 0.8 -2.8 33 37 274.7 275.2 273.1 283.3 3.16 3 900 977 1.3 -0.4 88 1.7 0.5 55 37 282.8 283.5 278.8 294.4 4.12 4 850 1438 1.7 0.1 89 1.6 1.0 66 31 287.9 288.7 281.7 300.8 4.52 5 800 1925 -0.3 -0.8 96 0.6 -0.6 73 26 290.8 291.6 283.0 303.9 4.49 6 750 2440 -2.2 -2.4 99 0.2 -2.3 89 21 294.2 294.9 284.1 306.7 4.27 7 700 2986 -4.6 -4.8 99 0.2 -4.7 112 18 297.4 298.1 284.9 308.9 3.83 8 650 3567 -7.3 -7.4 100 0.0 -7.4 130 16 300.7 301.3 285.7 311.0 3.38 9 600 4187 -10.8 -11.2 97 0.4 -10.9 146 9 303.7 304.2 286.1 312.1 2.71 10 550 4851 -14.7 -18.3 74 3.6 -15.7 211 5 306.7 307.0 286.0 312.0 1.65 11 500 5567 -19.0 -26.1 53 7.2 -20.5 238 6 309.9 310.1 286.4 313.0 0.91 12 450 6342 -25.1 -30.2 62 5.1 -25.9 16 3 311.7 311.8 286.8 314.1 0.69 13 400 7184 -32.7 -35.4 77 2.6 -33.1 35 9 312.4 312.5 286.8 314.1 0.47 14 350 8109 -40.1 -47.3 46 7.1 -40.6 78 1 314.6 314.6 287.1 315.2 0.15 15 300 9146 -45.9 -58.5 23 12.6 -46.3 196 11 320.6 320.6 289.0 320.8 0.05 16 250 10351 -48.1 -60.4 23 12.2 -48.5 215 35 334.5 334.5 293.0 334.7 0.05 17 200 11820 -48.7 -60.6 24 11.9 -49.1 229 51 355.6 355.6 297.9 355.8 0.05 18 150 13695 -52.9 -70.7 10 17.8 -53.3 241 52 379.0 379.0 302.1 379.1 0.02 19 100 16259 -60.8 -81.4 5 20.6 -61.1 252 39 410.2 410.2 306.5 410.3 0.01 TRP 0 WND 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherExperiment Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 @DukeEnergyStorm Potential winter weather in #NC and #SC: pic.twitter.com/v4PC65YB4l Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 fwiw JB said euro overdone with snow map showing a foot, will be alot of areas of 2-4 and 4-8 because of the amounts of freezing rain and sleet. Still a big ticket storm he says Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherExperiment Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 And now this from Brad Panovich: Hmmm?? The 14z HRRR run is coming in with a burst of snow at the beginning of this event now. http://twitpic.com/dxinau #cltwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 That CLT sounding looks like a hvy snow sounding to me with types changing as rates change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Nam is Most certain over done with qpf. Imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparkync Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 fwiw JB said euro overdone with snow map showing a foot, will be alot of areas of 2-4 and 4-8 because of the amounts of freezing rain and sleet. Still a big ticket storm he says my generator is ready to go and 25gals. Of gas on standby!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 my generator is ready to go and 25gals. Of gas on standby!! yep me too. However we will be out in it working. Hope more sleet than rain. Ice melt on a limited amount. Major shortage on it right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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