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3/6 - 3/7 Event is it this seasons last gasp?

WXinCanton

By WXinCanton,
in Southeastern States

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WSNC

WSNC

Posted
Posted

I think 12z gfs looks good for the triad with less precip. This will allow for colder surface temps and better accretion. I think the 12z nam was too warm due to being so juiced up on precip. 12z nam didn't seem right.

TW

12z GFS still has the triad at 32 tomorrow at 1pm.

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superjames1992

superjames1992

Posted
Posted

you took the words out of my mouth that is a lot of convection wrapped up down there.... which is going to steal alot of our moisture.. i'm thinking the .5 to .75 qpf as originally models is more likely to occur.... its not like the temps are going to plunge below freezing after this event and rapid melting will occur... if some one gets all frozen out of this storm i will be suprised.. i'm sure everyone will see rain before its all said and done....

I don't think anyone has argued against almost everyone changing over to rain at some point. I would expect even most of the harder hit areas to change over to rain sometime after daybreak Friday.

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

Not sure what parts of central NC he is talking about, though.

Power outages by daybreak Friday in parts of central to west NC. Still threshold temps upper SC, ne GA. 1 degree means big diff

 

 

He doesn't know for sure, his last statement is all that matters, have to wait and see.

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WSNC

WSNC

Posted
Posted

850's are colder on 12z GFS run for triad and should help with a little more front end mix. Model trends look good this morning for this being a significant event in this area. I would expect the advisory to be replaced with a warning shortly.

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tarheelwx

tarheelwx

Posted
Posted

850's are colder on 12z GFS run for triad and should help with a little more front end mix. Model trends look good this morning for this being a significant event in this area. I would expect the advisory to be replaced with a warning shortly.

In general I'd agree. However, if the nam is right, I think we get about 1/4" of glaze followed by flood warnings. Lol.

TW

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Brick Tamland

Brick Tamland

Posted
Posted

 

Overall, I'm sticking with my map from yesterday. This is playing out about like this. Snow in northwest NC turns to sleet. Several inches of snow from Asheville to Boone to southwest VA mountains but the max snow should be near Boone to the middle NC foothills where most moisture arrives when its cold enough aloft. The worst part will be in Greensboro and just west of the Triangle down to middle NC, Salisbury, Hickory, Statesville to Forest City Marion areas where temps will... fall into upper 20's during the night and freezing rain and sleet is falling hard. The high pressure remains inland all the way up until 7 am Friday morning, then we lose that tap of dry cold dewpoint air, and that allows temps at the surface to finally go above freezing.

For southern and middle Virginia, it depends on when the moisture comes that far north, while the high is still in position. It looks like the best moisture is arriving in Lynchburg to Richmond just around 7 to 10 am, and by then, the time of day and the fact the high is pulling out means less ice and snow threat there, so you see a tight graident on how this evolves. For upper SC, the models may not be quite cold enough. I don't trust the surface temps just yet when it shows the 32 line stopping at the GSP area, but it could.Its always looked close there.

For northeast GA, same..the sub 32 degree air could come into that region tonight and lock in at the surface. Its very close, adn that could mean a big ice storm there as well. don't let your guard down. This will come down to watching radars and temps, observations tonight, not the models anymore.

Bottom line is this looks pretty bad for the middle and western part of NC because of perfect timing and evolution of the storm. I expect some power outages by dawn tomorrow somewhere in the tarheel state and possibly for southern tier of counties in VA as well, possibly even northeast GA and upper SC too..

Map issued yesterday.

 
1947814_795608920469165_2128575946_n.jpg
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BullCityWx

BullCityWx

Posted
Posted

Boy, that aint too far off: 
 

Date: 18 hour AVN valid 6Z FRI 7 MAR 14
Station: KCLT
Latitude: 35.22
Longitude: -80.93
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W
mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
0 1000 155
SFC 994 206 0.2 -0.5 94 0.8 -0.1 17 18 273.9 274.5 273.4 283.9 3.69
2 950 564 -3.0 -3.3 98 0.3 -3.1 30 39 274.1 274.6 272.8 282.7 3.15
3 900 994 -0.7 -1.1 97 0.4 -0.9 60 43 280.8 281.5 277.5 291.7 3.91
4 850 1453 1.2 0.9 98 0.3 1.1 76 35 287.4 288.3 281.8 301.1 4.82
5 800 1941 0.5 0.2 98 0.3 0.4 76 29 291.7 292.5 283.7 305.7 4.86
6 750 2457 -1.9 -2.0 99 0.1 -2.0 77 28 294.5 295.3 284.3 307.4 4.40
7 700 3004 -4.4 -4.7 98 0.2 -4.6 93 26 297.6 298.3 285.0 309.1 3.87
8 650 3586 -6.2 -6.4 99 0.2 -6.2 131 34 302.0 302.6 286.4 313.1 3.65
9 600 4210 -8.6 -8.9 98 0.3 -8.7 156 37 306.1 306.7 287.5 316.3 3.25
10 550 4879 -13.3 -13.5 98 0.2 -13.3 181 33 308.4 308.8 287.5 316.2 2.46
11 500 5598 -18.4 -19.8 88 1.5 -18.7 195 27 310.6 310.9 287.3 315.8 1.59
12 450 6374 -24.5 -26.3 85 1.8 -24.9 198 20 312.4 312.6 287.3 315.8 0.99
13 400 7220 -31.3 -34.9 70 3.7 -31.7 194 20 314.4 314.4 287.5 316.1 0.49
14 350 8153 -38.1 -45.5 46 7.4 -38.7 185 25 317.3 317.4 288.1 318.0 0.19
15 300 9194 -46.6 -52.6 51 6.0 -46.9 184 24 319.7 319.7 288.8 320.0 0.10
16 250 10388 -51.2 -60.7 31 9.5 -51.4 208 45 330.0 330.0 291.7 330.1 0.04
17 200 11833 -50.2 -61.0 27 10.8 -50.6 220 66 353.2 353.2 297.4 353.5 0.05
18 150 13694 -54.5 -68.5 16 14.1 -54.8 235 57 376.2 376.3 301.6 376.4 0.03
19 100 16250 -60.8 -80.3 6 19.6 -61.0 249 43 410.3 410.3 306.6 410.4 0.01
TRP 0
WND 0
 
Date: 24 hour AVN valid 12Z FRI 7 MAR 14
Station: KCLT
Latitude: 35.22
Longitude: -80.93
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W
mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
0 1000 135
SFC 991 206 -0.1 -0.6 96 0.6 -0.3 25 17 273.8 274.4 273.3 283.8 3.68
2 950 544 -2.5 -3.2 94 0.8 -2.8 33 37 274.7 275.2 273.1 283.3 3.16
3 900 977 1.3 -0.4 88 1.7 0.5 55 37 282.8 283.5 278.8 294.4 4.12
4 850 1438 1.7 0.1 89 1.6 1.0 66 31 287.9 288.7 281.7 300.8 4.52
5 800 1925 -0.3 -0.8 96 0.6 -0.6 73 26 290.8 291.6 283.0 303.9 4.49
6 750 2440 -2.2 -2.4 99 0.2 -2.3 89 21 294.2 294.9 284.1 306.7 4.27
7 700 2986 -4.6 -4.8 99 0.2 -4.7 112 18 297.4 298.1 284.9 308.9 3.83
8 650 3567 -7.3 -7.4 100 0.0 -7.4 130 16 300.7 301.3 285.7 311.0 3.38
9 600 4187 -10.8 -11.2 97 0.4 -10.9 146 9 303.7 304.2 286.1 312.1 2.71
10 550 4851 -14.7 -18.3 74 3.6 -15.7 211 5 306.7 307.0 286.0 312.0 1.65
11 500 5567 -19.0 -26.1 53 7.2 -20.5 238 6 309.9 310.1 286.4 313.0 0.91
12 450 6342 -25.1 -30.2 62 5.1 -25.9 16 3 311.7 311.8 286.8 314.1 0.69
13 400 7184 -32.7 -35.4 77 2.6 -33.1 35 9 312.4 312.5 286.8 314.1 0.47
14 350 8109 -40.1 -47.3 46 7.1 -40.6 78 1 314.6 314.6 287.1 315.2 0.15
15 300 9146 -45.9 -58.5 23 12.6 -46.3 196 11 320.6 320.6 289.0 320.8 0.05
16 250 10351 -48.1 -60.4 23 12.2 -48.5 215 35 334.5 334.5 293.0 334.7 0.05
17 200 11820 -48.7 -60.6 24 11.9 -49.1 229 51 355.6 355.6 297.9 355.8 0.05
18 150 13695 -52.9 -70.7 10 17.8 -53.3 241 52 379.0 379.0 302.1 379.1 0.02
19 100 16259 -60.8 -81.4 5 20.6 -61.1 252 39 410.2 410.2 306.5 410.3 0.01
TRP 0
WND 0
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