GaWx Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 The winds here are impressive and just noticed Ffc has put up advisories in the last hour or so. Also the dewpoint is surprisingly low this morning at 19. Maybe interesting event later today NEGa, Yep, TD's are way lower than forecasted. Look out for potential major bust if precip gets to N Ga in abundance. Temp. has warmed only one degree here in Dunwoody so far at 39.9. My equipment doesn't read TD's, unfortunately. TD down to 16 in NE ATL. Wow, just wow!! Models missed this by a mile!!!! The lowest forecasted by the 12Z NAM was down only to 23 (and that at 10 AM). The forecasted lowest wetbulb was only down to 34 and that at 10 AM. It is already down to 31 there! I can't overemphasize the bust potential in north GA should ample precip. actually arrive later today and tonight. That's the main question now. We have cold enough air. Edit: I'm surprised Lookout hasn't yet posted this morning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 NEGa, Yep, TD's are way lower than forecasted. Look out for potential major bust if precip gets to N Ga in abundance. Temp. has warned only one degree here in Dunwoody so far at 39.9. My equipment doesn't read TD's, unfortunately. TD down to 16 in NE ATL. Wow, just wow!! Models missed this by a mile!!!! The lowest forecasted by the 12Z NAM was down only to 23 (and that at 10 AM). The forecasted lowest wetbulb was only down to 34 and that at 10 AM. It is already down to 31 there! I can't overemphasize the bust potential in north GA should ample precip. actually arrive later today and tonight. Dewpt down a good 10 since last night. When I got up this morning I could hear the winds. Not scientific but to have a bust to frozen from rain a decent ne wind is almost always necessary for mby. My interest level is way high at the moment to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WSNC Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Anybody got nam surface temps? TW For the triad area the HiRes Nam has surface temp down to 32 at 10 pm, 29 at 2am, and back to 32 by 10am.It is running warm now since it had 9am temps at 34 and we are sitting at 31. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 I am curious to why the models mostly have the cool pocket on the sw side of the upper low. I always thought it was the nw side of the low where the 850's crash and give the heavy snow? usually the pocket of coldest will start NW side then rotate down west and sw of upper low and 850mb low Larry, I could see it on the RAP and HRRR last night they were driving yalls Td's down to the teens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtomlinwx Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Which would be a better spot to be in for this storm? Statesville(an hr N of CLT) or RDU? I'm trying to decide whether to go home to Statesville or not. Looks like Statesville is on the southern edge of the wedge, while RDU is on the east side. Also looks like wedge erodes faster from the south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Dewpt down a good 10 since last night. When I got up this morning I could hear the winds. Not scientific but to have a bust to frozen from rain a decent ne wind is almost always necessary for mby. My interest level is way high at the moment to say the least. dpt down to 14 in asheville right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Which would be a better spot to be in for this storm? Statesville(an hr N of CLT) or RDU? I'm trying to decide whether to go home to Statesville or not. Looks like Statesville is on the southern edge of the wedge, while RDU is on the east side. Also looks like wedge erodes faster from the south Statesville by a wide margin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Well, my local NWS forecast for tonight is interesting. Periods of mixed winter precipitation. Low 34F. Winds NE at 10 to 20 mph. 1 to 3 inches of snow and ice expected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 For the triad area the HiRes Nam has surface temp down to 32 at 10 pm, 29 at 2am, and back to 32 by 10am.It is running warm now since it had 9am temps at 34 and we are sitting at 31.So if Triad and n foothills get the 2" qpf the nam is showing in that time period, we should be good! Half that might actually be better. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtomlinwx Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Statesville by a wide margin! Okay, that's what I figured. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtomlinwx Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 HRRR Showing little mixing with mainly snow NW of I-85 @ 10 PM tonight. However, 850's are marginal and SFC temps are, too. Is radar reflectivity normally accurate on this model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WSNC Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 So if Triad and n foothills get the 2" qpf the nam is showing in that time period, we should be good! Half that might actually be better. TW I agree. A lot of that would run off and it would probably drive temps up a little. That being said, Robert mentioned yesterday that the NAM has a warm bias and it is off a few degrees with current temps, so bust potential is high based on the tenth inch is currently in the NWS forecast. If gets into the 20's for several hours we are going to be in trouble. Another thing I'm worried about is the winds. Ice and wind is not a good combo for keeping your power on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 I haven't seen the NWS temp forecast yet, but WRAL has a high of 42 for Raleigh today. There is a 99% chance that will bust to the high side. Anytime the sun is out for a good portion of the day in March, you can bet that in these situations, you'll be warmer than forecast. 50 is not out of the question at all. Upper 40s seem like a lock to me. GSO only made it up to 33 a couple days ago under full sun with a forecasted high of 41. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 GSO only made it up to 33 a couple days ago under full sun with a forecasted high of 41. Well, clouds are thickening up now, so that might save us. They need to get in here before 11/12. It's 38 at Raleigh right now. If we can hold around 40, I'll feel better about chances of frozen this far east, though I still have plenty of reservations about this being much of an impact over here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 NEGa, Yep, TD's are way lower than forecasted. Look out for potential major bust if precip gets to N Ga in abundance. Temp. has warmed only one degree here in Dunwoody so far at 39.9. My equipment doesn't read TD's, unfortunately. TD down to 16 in NE ATL. Wow, just wow!! Models missed this by a mile!!!! The lowest forecasted by the 12Z NAM was down only to 23 (and that at 10 AM). The forecasted lowest wetbulb was only down to 34 and that at 10 AM. It is already down to 31 there! I can't overemphasize the bust potential in north GA should ample precip. actually arrive later today and tonight. That's the main question now. We have cold enough air. Edit: I'm surprised Lookout hasn't yet posted this morning! I've got a 38 and two 39s here. Occasional big gusts earlier this morning. Looks and feels like something. I had rain and 36 the other night, so this could be something cold again, lol. I hope it's another one of those March surprise snows, that's not so surprising March has always been a good winter month in my book.....but then I remember 60 among others, when lots don't. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
farleydawg79 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 For those wondering about determining wetbulb temp, here is a good link: http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/170/ Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Current DP's up and down east coast: Shows some single digit DP in North Georgia: CAD really getting entrenched http://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/mesomap.cgi?state=NC&rawsflag=3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Seems like the GFS may be either suffering from convective feedback still or the NAM's qpf output is on crack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Seems like the GFS may be either suffering from convective feedback still or the NAM's qpf output is on crack.Probably both TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Current DP's up and down east coast: Shows some single digit DP in North Georgia: CAD really getting entrenched http://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/mesomap.cgi?state=NC&rawsflag=3 Using that link, Winder, GA is reporting a DP of 1°F. WOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 using this link with the relative humidity you can clearly see the wedge goes basically from charlotte to raleigh http://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/mesomap.cgi?state=NC&rawsflag=3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 12Z GFS looks to be coming in colder. Seems to keep CLT below freezing through 12Z tomorrow. Don't know if I believe it though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Using that link, Winder, GA is reporting a DP of 1°F. WOW. Those Tds in the single digits scream error to me. The entire region, all the way up into VA has Tds in the teens and 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 12Z GFS looks to be coming in colder. Seems to keep CLT below freezing through 12Z tomorrow. Don't know if I believe it though... I can because temperature are starting to stall in WNC now several degrees below the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Courtesy of Mike Dross at Wright-Weather via Twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Probably both TW I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss the lighter QPF amounts. The NAM is almost always overdone, like you said (and usually by a lot), and the GFS may be picking up on Gulf convection, interferring with moisture transport into the region. That happens to us a LOT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 I think 12z gfs looks good for the triad with less precip. This will allow for colder surface temps and better accretion. I think the 12z nam was too warm due to being so juiced up on precip. 12z nam didn't seem right. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Looks like the GFS is suffering from convective feedback issues again. I wouldn't at all be surprised if the NAM QPF is too high, but the GFS looks too low and goofy. Thermals are decent, though. It is also weaker with the ULL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 I think it allows the cad to stay in place just a bit longer. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss the lighter QPF amounts. The NAM is almost always overdone, like you said (and usually by a lot), and the GFS may be picking up on Gulf convection, interferring with moisture transport into the region. That happens to us a LOT. you took the words out of my mouth that is a lot of convection wrapped up down there.... which is going to steal alot of our moisture.. i'm thinking the .5 to .75 qpf as originally models is more likely to occur.... its not like the temps are going to plunge below freezing after this event and rapid melting will occur... if some one gets all frozen out of this storm i will be suprised.. i'm sure everyone will see rain before its all said and done.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.