MillerA Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Brad's blog with futurecast pics http://wxbrad.com/ice-potential-going-up-tonight-into-friday-morning/?utm_content=bufferd6f23&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 very impressive wedge has verified along with the much colder than forecasted TD's. Edit: this situation is one of the most complex and tough to forecast. Going to be a very interesting day and night of observing what actually happens! Larry, I remember the surprise of '05 when it was not a surprise to you... this one sorta reminds me of that. I remember wet bulbs were something we were all concentrating on and looking at. When is the time frame to start looking at those? When the precip rolls in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 This is a very low confidence forecast. Even at this short of a range we have some significant model disagreement and also a razor then margin for error. This map is based off of model output, experience from living in this area for years, and climo. I think the mountains should make out pretty well with snow. Ice in March is pretty uncommon, which makes any forecast accrual above 0.25 a bit shaky, but the best chance for that will be I-40 corridor from HKY to GSO to Burlington and then north of there. Again, I can see this going a number of ways that wouldnt surprise me. 1. Heavy snow for mountains, mostly non event outside of mountains. 2. Heavy snow from GSP to CLT to GSO west, with narrow transition zone, and mostly rain east of there. 3. Or a deformation band could set up over the piedmont, with heavy snow across the western and central piedmont and less ice. This is truly one we are going to have to just watch play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoDa-wx Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 I feel bad for the mets on this one. If things end up being a colder solution with more of a wintry scenario for places then they are going to get lynched by the public. No one that isn't some sort of weather geek understands how incredibly difficult this storm is to predict...it's basically a now-cast storm. I tip my hat to you guys, I don't envy you in this situation at all. But most of all, thank you for all of your input here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Larry, I remember the surprise of '05 when it was not a surprise to you... this one sorta reminds me of that. I remember wet bulbs were something we were all concentrating on and looking at. When is the time frame to start looking at those? When the precip rolls in? The timeframe is now but is even more important then, of course. Also, dynamic cooling from the upper low will be quite possible in some areas late today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 This is a very low confidence forecast. Even at this short of a range we have some significant model disagreement and also a razor then margin for error. This map is based off of model output, experience from living in this area for years, and climo. I think the mountains should make out pretty well with snow. Ice in March is pretty uncommon, which makes any forecast accrual above 0.25 a bit shaky, but the best chance for that will be I-40 corridor from HKY to GSO to Burlington and then north of there. Again, I can see this going a number of ways that wouldnt surprise me. 1. Heavy snow for mountains, mostly non event outside of mountains. 2. Heavy snow from GSP to CLT to GSO west, with narrow transition zone, and mostly rain east of there. 3. Or a deformation band could set up over the piedmont, with heavy snow across the western and central piedmont and less ice. This is truly one we are going to have to just watch play out. I am hoping for number 3, because right now it just looks like we're getting a cold and miserable rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 So, RAH really doesn't know what's going to happen in the Triangle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 I am hoping for number 3, because right now it just looks like we're getting a cold and miserable rain. Does Central Piedmont mean Raleigh? Everybody uses that term differently, but for the most part, I think people usually mean west of here, Brick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Latest NAM looks like snow across much of north GA as that low passes by. You see the classic loop of sub freezing temps just south of ATL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Brad's blog with futurecast pics http://wxbrad.com/ice-potential-going-up-tonight-into-friday-morning/?utm_content=bufferd6f23&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer i would think there will be more snow in the western part of the state than Brad is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Does Central Piedmont mean Raleigh? Everybody uses that term differently, but for the most part, I think people usually mean west of here, Brick. Yes, it is a bit confusing. I would think central piedmont means Raleigh, and western piedmont would be the Triad to Charlotte. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Yes, it is a bit confusing. I would think central piedmont means Raleigh, and western piedmont would be the Triad to Charlotte. I agree, because looking at a map, we're in the center of the state. But I think most people think we're in the eastern Piedmont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 I agree, because looking at a map, we're in the center of the state. But I think most people think we're in the eastern Piedmont. It would be nice to have a real consensus on the term. I knew I was taught in school that the Triangle is in the piedmont, and we're in the middle of it, so I figure that means we're in the central piedmont, and places like the Triad would be more western piedmont. I think Fayetteville would be eastern piedmont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Raleigh is hardly in the middle of the state, IMO. Only 3-4 counties from the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 So 12z nam looks warmer and wetter in nc? TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncwxlvr Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 The Piedmont, by definition, only extends east to the Fall Line, which passes directly through the city of Raleigh. Therefore, Raleigh must be, at least partially, in the Eastern Piedmont. Definitely no where near Central. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 The bust potential on this for at least north GA is tremendous! I do feel for the mets. By the way, in reading old newspapers and looking at other things, the major ATL snow of 3/11/1960 was completely unforecasted as the forecast was just for rain. One ATL forecaster of 1960 fully admitted during the 1980's or 1990's that that was his worst forecast bust ever. Then there, too, was upper level related dynamic cooling that did its magic. Then, the wedge was less impressively placed than now and the sfc low was further north. Also, it doesn't look to me like the upper level cold was impressive on the 500 mb maps. If anyone has a chance, check out maps of 3/11-12/1960. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 The Piedmont, by definition, only extends east to the Fall Line, which passes directly through the city of Raleigh. Therefore, Raleigh must be, at least partially, in the Eastern Piedmont. Definitely no where near Central. Yes, I was just looking at some maps on Google image search. Some of them have the piedmont going a little farther east, but most of them have it stopping right after Wake County. I didn't realize so much of NC was considered the coast. Searcg for piedmont of NC in Google images and you'll get this. https://www.google.com/search?q=piedmont+of+nc&rls=com.microsoft:en-us&rlz=1I7AURU_enUS505&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&ei=54IYU4a2NujH0wHDlYCQDA&ved=0CCYQsAQ&biw=1127&bih=597&dpr=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 12z nam has 2-3" qpf over most of western and central nc. Since no discussion, I'm guessing it came in a bit warmer? TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigflakesohappy Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 It would be nice to have a real consensus on the term. I knew I was taught in school that the Triangle is in the piedmont, and we're in the middle of it, so I figure that means we're in the central piedmont, and places like the Triad would be more western piedmont. I think Fayetteville would be eastern piedmont. Fayetteville would be the Coastal Plan/Shandhills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 The winds here are impressive and just noticed Ffc has put up advisories in the last hour or so. Also the dewpoint is surprisingly low this morning at 19. Maybe interesting event later today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 12z nam has 2-3" qpf over most of western and central nc. Since no discussion, I'm guessing it came in a bit warmer? TW Yes. With a big threat and no discussion after EVERY model run = not good . But does look like some snow from ULL near ATL,lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherExperiment Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Yes, I was just looking at some maps on Google image search. Some of them have the piedmont going a little farther east, but most of them have it stopping right after Wake County. I didn't realize so much of NC was considered the coast. Searcg for piedmont of NC in Google images and you'll get this. https://www.google.com/search?q=piedmont+of+nc&rls=com.microsoft:en-us&rlz=1I7AURU_enUS505&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&ei=54IYU4a2NujH0wHDlYCQDA&ved=0CCYQsAQ&biw=1127&bih=597&dpr=1 Wow...huge discrepencies in those maps as to where, exactly, the Piedmont boundaries are. One map even considers Charlotte and neighboring counties as the Foothills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Yes. With a big threat and no discussion after EVERY model run = not good . But does look like some snow from ULL near ATL,lol Big threat? Of what? It's going to be nothing but a cold rain here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Wow...huge discrepencies in those maps as to where, exactly, the Piedmont boundaries are. One map even considers Charlotte and neighboring counties as the Foothills. Well, I don't think the foothills is considered an actual geographical term. The foothills is included in the piedmont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 We have our storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherExperiment Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Well, I don't think the foothills is considered an actual geographical term. The foothills is included in the piedmont. I just always thought the Foothills were a narrow band at the base of the mountain region. But the one map suggests its a much larger expanse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Anybody got nam surface temps? TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Its the highest bust potential storm this winter/spring so far. New nam coming in and it develops a nice cool pocket (0 to -2c) at 850 over N and CGA overnight tonight and into tomorrow am. QPF is fairly light (at best) verbatim, but we shall see. edit... 4km NAM goes down to like -4 or so at 850 over EC and SE GA. wow. no precip though, prolly to little to late. but interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Its the highest bust potential storm this winter/spring so far. New nam coming in and it develops a nice cool pocket (0 to -2c) at 850 over N and CGA overnight tonight and into tomorrow am. QPF is fairly light (at best) verbatim, but we shall see. I am curious to why the models mostly have the cool pocket on the sw side of the upper low. I always thought it was the nw side of the low where the 850's crash and give the heavy snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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