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3/6 - 3/7 Event is it this seasons last gasp?

WXinCanton

By WXinCanton,
in Southeastern States

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FLweather

FLweather

Posted
Posted

How am I only under a WWA? Seems to me models have been showing nothing but WSW criteria like solutions.

 

 

Just because the model trends have improved over the last 18-24 hours and everybody got excited the grand scheme of things is not a major storm.

 

Yeah it may start off as snow,sleet, then freezing rain. Once that 850 low tracks along and just west of the EC coastline WAA of maritime air starts very rapidly into the lowest couple thousand. With such a strong east wind all the way back into the foothills wintry precip is going to be limited. Honestly the best spot in the mountains. Once you get out of  the mountains into the foothills and piedmont then every thing is going to be limited. Foothills into the triad east. I honestly see maybe 1-3" of snow at most around .25"-.33" of freezing rain before WAA kills all chances winter weather and starts switching people over to plain ol rain pre-dawn and dawn hours of Friday morning.

 

Now if the 850 low tracks further east it would be a different ball game but thats doubtfull. 

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msuwx

msuwx

Posted
Posted

Matt, what's interesting to me is you could argue areas to the west of the city(EHO, AKH, IPJ, HKY) hold onto almost a heavy snow sounding from 0z to 12z on the GFS.

 

Yes you definitely could. Very interesting. Euro is chilly at 850 as well.

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Berlin1926

Berlin1926

Posted
Posted

Just because the model trends have improved over the last 18-24 hours and everybody got excited the grand scheme of things is not a major storm.

 

Yeah it may start off as snow,sleet, then freezing rain. Once that 850 low tracks along and just west of the EC coastline WAA of maritime air starts very rapidly into the lowest couple thousand. With such a strong east wind all the way back into the foothills wintry precip is going to be limited. Honestly the best spot in the mountains. Once you get out of  the mountains into the foothills and piedmont then every thing is going to be limited. Foothills into the triad east. I honestly see maybe 1-3" of snow at most around .25"-.33" of freezing rain before WAA kills all chances winter winter and starts switching people over to plain ol rain pre-dawn and dawn hours of Friday morning.

 

Now if the 850 low tracks further east it would be a different ball game but thats doubtfull.

Thoughtful analysis....A voice of reason. Thanks NC Weather.

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strongwxnc

strongwxnc

Posted
Posted

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rah/criteria/

 

"Snow accumulations 1-3 inches; Any freezing rain accumulations less than ¼ inch; Any sleet accumulations less than ½ inch. Winter Weather Advisories are issued in any one of the three criteria are forecast to be met"

 

 

How am I only under a WWA? Seems to me models have been showing nothing but WSW criteria like solutions.

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted

RAP and HRRR are still very warm at 1z tonight, upper 30's

Has RDU hitting 50F today

I haven't seen the NWS temp forecast yet, but WRAL has a high of 42 for Raleigh today. There is a 99% chance that will bust to the high side. Anytime the sun is out for a good portion of the day in March, you can bet that in these situations, you'll be warmer than forecast.

50 is not out of the question at all. Upper 40s seem like a lock to me.

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strongwxnc

strongwxnc

Posted
Posted

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/gsp/briefing/winter_wx.php

 

GSP's is a little different in the wording for an advisory giving the local climo

 

Winter Weather Advisory - Hazardous winter weather event producing either:

a. Light snow accumulations of at least one inch, but less than Warning criteria.  Since snowfall amounts of ½ inch are rounded to an inch for reporting purposes, snow advisories are appropriate for expected amounts of ½ inch or greater across the foothills and piedmont and 2 inches across the mountains.  Advisories can also be issued for “impact events” where a dusting of snow on very cold road surfaces can lead to numerous accidents.

b. Light sleet accumulations of less than ½ inch.

c. Widespread or localized blowing snow reducing visibilities to ¼ mile or less with winds less than 35 mph.

d. Light snow and blowing snow where sustained winds, or frequent gusts, of 25 to 34 mph are accompanied by falling and blowing snow, occasionally reducing visibility to ¼ mile or less for three hours or more.

e. Winter weather events with multiple precipitation types in which at least one precipitation element meets or exceeds Advisory criteria.  Or, a winter weather event Advisory-level event plus Advisory criteria wind speeds.

Now I see why I have no advisory for my area!

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NavarreDon

NavarreDon

Posted
Posted

Excellent write up by GSP for those wondering about their forecasting of this storm:

 

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF DAYBREAK...QUIET ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA UNDER THICKENING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE PRECIP REMAINS WELL TO THE SOUTH OVER SRN GEORGIA.

WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING THE FCST DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED MID/UPPER LOW
OVER THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...AND THE MODELS HAVE
CONVERGED MORE OR LESS ON A SOLUTION...CLOSING OFF THE LOW THIS
MORNING OVER THE MS DELTA REGION...AS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
IN RESPONSE...A SURFACE LOW WILL SLOWLY ORGANIZE AND MOVE FROM THE
NORTHEAST GULF...ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA LATE TODAY...AND OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT. THE MID/UPPER LOW WILL SPREAD ALL MANNER OF
FORCING UP FROM THE SOUTH WITH DEEP GULF/ATLANTIC MOISTURE...SO
PRECIP LOOKS LIKE A SAFE BET. ONLY THE ONSET TIME IS IN DOUBT FOR
TODAY...AND THE TREND OF THE MODELS SUGGESTS THAT PRECIP WOULD
DEVELOP FROM S TO N THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUCH THAT WE BEGIN DRY AND
MOVE THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIP CHANCES TO I-40 BY SUNSET. ALTHO
IT WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL TODAY...TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH
INITIALLY THAT PRECIP SHOULD BE RAIN AT ONSET...PERHAPS MIXED WITH
SOME SLEET E OF THE MTNS...OR SNOW/SLEET OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THINGS GET INTERESTING TONIGHT AS PRECIP ENGULFS THE ENTIRE REGION.
THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE WITH MUCH
LOWER THICKNESSES...WHILE THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE
NAM/ECMWF/CANADIAN/SREF POINTING MORE TOWARD MORE OF A SLEET/
FREEZING RAIN SCENARIO OVER THE NRN ZONES. ALTHO THE NAM/ECMWF IS
PREFERRED...THE FCST USES A BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS IN ORDER TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY THAT PROFILES MIGHT BE COOLER
OVERNIGHT...THUS MORE OF A SNOW/SLEET POSSIBILITY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND NC BLUE RIDGE. WHAT FALLS OUT OF THIS PROCESS IS A
COMPLEX ELEVATION DEPENDENT SNOW/SLEET SCENARIO OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NRN MTNS OF NC...THAT SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN
AS THE WARM NOSE STRENGTHENS WITH WARM ADVECTION IN THE EASTERLY
ATLANTIC FLOW ON THE N SIDE OF THE LOW BY DAYBREAK. THE NC FOOTHILLS
AND NW PIEDMONT WOULD SEE PRECIP BECOMING SLEET IN THE
EVENING...THEN CHANGING OVER TO FREEZING RAIN IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...AND EVENTUALLY RAIN AROUND DAYBREAK. ANOTHER GUIDANCE TREND
IS THE WETTER NAM SOLUTION...WHICH MIGHT RAISE PRECIP AMTS ENOUGH TO
WORRY ABOUT WARNING CRITERIA. AS CONSTRUCTED...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR UP TO TWO TENTHS OF ICE OVER PARTS OF THE NW
PIEDMONT...AND 2-3 INCHES OF SNOW OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE CENTRAL/NRN MTNS OF NC. WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR TONIGHT THROUGH NOON FRIDAY TO HANDLE THIS. THERE IS SOME RISK
THAT IF WARMER AIR DOES NOT COME IN AS MUCH AS EXPECTED THAT MORE
PRECIP OVER THE MTNS WOULD FALL AS SNOW/SLEET...AND THAT FREEZING
RAIN WOULD HANG ON LONGER OVER THE NW PIEDMONT...SO SOME ADJUSTMENTS
ON THE FLY MIGHT BE ANTICIPATED. ELSEWHERE...JUST A COLD RAIN FOR
METRO CHARLOTTE/UPSTATE SC/NE GEORGIA/AND THE SRN MTNS OF NC.

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

TD's in the CAD regions of GA/SC/NC are way below what was forecasted by both the NAM and GFS, meaning they're totally clueless about the dryness and evap. cooling potential of this very impressive wedge. Anyone else notice this? I mean TD 's aren't even close. Also, I saw highest SLP near 1040 mb at 12Z this morning in New England. So, the 1040 high verified nicely.

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msuwx

msuwx

Posted
Posted

TD's in the CAD regions of GA/SC/NC are way below what was forecasted by both the NAM and GFS, meaning they're totally clueless about the dryness and evap. cooling potential of this very impressive wedge. Anyone else notice this? I mean TD 's aren't even close. Also, I saw highest SLP near 1040 mb at 12Z this morning in New England. So, the 1040 high verified nicely.

You are correct there about DPs. 5-10 degrees lower than modeled currently.

Also, clouds look quite thick in GA and SC.... so very little insolation today.

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NGA WINTER

NGA WINTER

Posted
Posted

TD's in the CAD regions of GA/SC/NC are way below what was forecasted by both the NAM and GFS, meaning they're totally clueless about the dryness and evap. cooling potential of this very impressive wedge. Anyone else notice this? I mean TD 's aren't even close. Also, I saw highest SLP near 1040 mb at 12Z this morning in New England. So, the 1040 high verified nicely.

Larry are you thinking surprise like I am?

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NEGa

NEGa

Posted
Posted

In a state of shock - about a quarter of the square in Clarkesville burned down overnight. My office is across the street and ok but it's horrible. Sorry off topic but am stunned

Side note wedge is roaring in. I mean roaring thus morning. Very strong ne winds

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

I haven't seen the NWS temp forecast yet, but WRAL has a high of 42 for Raleigh today. There is a 99% chance that will bust to the high side. Anytime the sun is out for a good portion of the day in March, you can bet that in these situations, you'll be warmer than forecast.

50 is not out of the question at all. Upper 40s seem like a lock to me.

Agreed, but I am surprised RAH doesn't have the triad in a WSW, but they obviously do more than watch the NAM/GFS.

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HWY316wx

HWY316wx

Posted
Posted

TD's in the CAD regions of GA/SC/NC are way below what was forecasted by both the NAM and GFS, meaning they're totally clueless about the dryness and evap. cooling potential of this very impressive wedge. Anyone else notice this? I mean TD 's aren't even close. Also, I saw highest SLP near 1040 mb at 12Z this morning in New England. So, the 1040 high verified nicely.

 

 

Larry, 

 

One thing I did notice this morning strictly from an obs stand point is the wind coming out of the East.  Usually with our CAD events, the wind is blowing, but it is howling this morning.  I literally thought as I was driving in... man... this thing is stronger than I think the models realize.  I have lived through many CAD's over here on the East side and I think this one means business.

 

What that means down the line?  That is your department.   :whistle:

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mackerel_sky

mackerel_sky

Posted
Posted

TD's in the CAD regions of GA/SC/NC are way below what was forecasted by both the NAM and GFS, meaning they're totally clueless about the dryness and evap. cooling potential of this very impressive wedge. Anyone else notice this? I mean TD 's aren't even close. Also, I saw highest SLP near 1040 mb at 12Z this morning in New England. So, the 1040 high verified nicely.

What are your thoughts on GSP discussion and all cold rain from GSP-CLT, they sound pretty confident in their wording and don't mention the ULL producing snow under it?
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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

Larry are you thinking surprise like I am?

If you're asking about N GA, I've been thinking that the potential for a wintry surprise is pretty high due to this wedge/Gulf low combo being much more impressive than ANY day during 3/1-15 of the maps I examined yesterday, 1969-2004. Now that TD's are coming in much lower than forecasted, this tells me the models are clueless and this surprise potential has only increased since yesterday. The only question is when/how much precip. actually gets to the area.

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FLweather

FLweather

Posted
Posted

Thoughtful analysis....A voice of reason. Thanks NC Weather.

 

NP and stupid damn autocorrect sorry about the typos.

 

Now if the Surface high and the LP would have had perfect timing this would have been a big snowstorm... slow down the HP and place it about 300 miles west of its current location then probably be enough CAA for a biggie.

Mike Gold posted this in the Mountains thread. Very helpful info when looking at soundings.

 

warmlayer.JPG

 

 

That top bullet fits the bill for this system.

 

Over the last week of tracking this no matter how silly each run looks the soundings tell the tell. Ive been keeping a mental record of the soundings around this area.... Danville, Roxboro, Oxford, Triad.

 

There has been a consistent data showing with the inconsistent model runs temps apporaching that level and higher aloft. Alot of it comes down to the SLP and 850 track. Further east the cold can penatrate more so into the piedmont but limits qpf over the mountains. Further west other than the mountains WAA takes hold.

 

Honestly I dont really remember any storms busting too cold. Most of the times its warmer then first thought. Alot of the WWA in the Piedmont/Foothills reflect the warm nose. IF the models bust being cold but not cold enough than that will speed up the transition from SnowSleet to Cold rain. So alot of freezing raining showing on the soundings will be more limited and quicker change to CR if temps aloft are warmer into the 3-7C range.

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Hammer

Hammer

Posted
Posted

Larry, 

 

One thing I did notice this morning strictly from an obs stand point is the wind coming out of the East.  Usually with our CAD events, the wind is blowing, but it is howling this morning.  I literally thought as I was driving in... man... this thing is stronger than I think the models realize.  I have lived through many CAD's over here on the East side and I think this one means business.

 

What that means down the line?  That is your department.   :whistle:

The kids this morning kept swearing we were in a tornado.  The wind was just ridiculous.  

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

Larry,

One thing I did notice this morning strictly from an obs stand point is the wind coming out of the East. Usually with our CAD events, the wind is blowing, but it is howling this morning. I literally thought as I was driving in... man... this thing is stronger than I think the models realize. I have lived through many CAD's over here on the East side and I think this one means business.

What that means down the line? That is your department. :whistle:

That means the models correctly modeled this most impressive wedge for early March and impressive for any time for that matter. By the way, it got down to 17 this morning at NYC, which verifies very well the colder, stronger high up there (source region for this CAD). Back around late this past weekend, when models had backed off on the NE cold, the low proffer at NYC was down to only near 32. At the time, I had said that they 'd have to trend back much colder to give the SE enough of a cold air source. Well, they did start trending back colder over the last few days, which raised my interest back up high. Now, we see the impressively colder runs and 1040 high verify very nicely along with much lower TD's now in the SE CAD regions. This sets up bust potential IMO as long as ample precip . actually gets to the CAD regions, which I expect. So, I expect the NAM is going to verify quite a bit too warm at least in a

N GA as of now.

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

What are your thoughts on GSP discussion and all cold rain from GSP-CLT, they sound pretty confident in their wording and don't mention the ULL producing snow under it?

I don't know about snow as the upper low is hard to predict and it is borderline, but the last 3 GFS runs tell me that a several inch snow is quite possible somewhere in N GA and upstate. Regardless, I also feel that IP/ZR potential is higher than what they're saying assuming precip actually gets up to your area when considering that the very impressive wedge has verified along with the much colder than forecasted TD's.

Edit: this situation is one of the most complex and tough to forecast. Going to be a very interesting day and night of observing what actually happens!

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