jacobr57 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 The 03z sref average for avl is 3.38 inches, with 7 plumes over 5 and 3 right around 10. A big jump from the last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Folks, The models are doing a poor job of progging the TD's in much if NC tonight, especially at RDU, where the TD fell from 18 to 16 to 13 from 1 to 3 AM. The lowest the TD was progged to be for the entire event was only down to 20 on the 0Z NAM and 27 on the 0Z GFS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Dew points have been crashing here was at 36 now at 25 with a 32 temp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted March 6, 2014 Author Share Posted March 6, 2014 Nam get 2 contours over SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ollie Williams Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ollie Williams Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 RNK doesn't sound optimistic for snow east of the blue ridge ... dreaded freezing rain! Winter Weather AdvisoryURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA420 AM EST THU MAR 6 2014...EARLY MARCH STORM TO BRING WINTRY MIX TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY....ARCTIC HIGH OVER QUEBEC THIS MORNING HEADS EAST TODAY INTO FRIDAYTO SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. THIS WILL KEEP US WEDGED IN ANDTEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF OFMEXICO LIFTS NORTHEAST JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY FRIDAYMORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SLEET ANDSNOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS WHILE ALONG AND EAST OF THEBLUE RIDGE...FREEZING RAIN OCCURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMINGABOVE FREEZING BY MIDDAY FRIDAY SWITCHING ANY PRECIPITATION OVERTO PLAIN RAIN.SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WILKES-YADKIN-CARROLL-FLOYD-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOBSON...DANBURY...EDEN...YANCEYVILLE...WILKESBORO...YADKINVILLE...GALAX...FLOYD...STUART...ROCKY MOUNT...MARTINSVILLE...DANVILLE...SOUTH BOSTON...KEYSVILLE420 AM EST THU MAR 6 2014...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TONOON EST FRIDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A WINTERWEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW...WHICH IS INEFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST FRIDAY.* LOCATIONS...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE ROANOKE RIVER IN VIRGINIA...INTO NORTH CAROLINA...AS WELL AS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE SOUTH OF FLOYD.* HAZARD TYPES...FREEZING RAIN WITH SOME SLEET AND SNOW.* ACCUMULATIONS...A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS OF ICE. AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW AND SLEET.* TIMING...ARRIVING BY 9 PM THIS EVENING...UNTIL MIDDAY FRIDAY.* IMPACTS...ICE...SNOW AND SLEET WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVELING CONDITIONS. ROADS WILL BECOME SLICK...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.* WINDS...NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH.* TEMPERATURES...FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S EARLY FRIDAY MORNING Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Latest wwa from gsp http://www.erh.noaa.gov/gsp/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Well 6z nam actually gets some decent precip into southern va this run looks like close to .75 qpf I'd take it I think the forecast offices and models are going to bust badly with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Matthew east video link, good as always Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Looks like the 6z nam was about 1 degree warmer at the surface for the Triad. Minimum temperature of 29 compared to 28. This would make less of an impact on the roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Woke up to no winter weather advisory or nothing? Must not be as bad as was looking last night? With the major winter precip event looming? All local stations saying rain only! Bummer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Latest wwa from gsp http://www.erh.noaa.gov/gsp/ If anyone is wondering why GSP is being conservative they probably do not have a short memory. Last major ULL threat they called for 6-8 inches across the FA with a heavy snow warning. It ended up being entirely rain. Has to be one of the biggest busts of the decade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 6z GFS for Greensboro: 2.0" snow, .53" sleet, .12" freezing rain, .88" total precip, min temperature is 29.4F. At least 9 hours of temperatures around 29-30 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Latest RAP @18 hours has much of us in WNC as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 NWS Raleigh doesn't seem quite as bullish as yesterday afternoon. Seems to think that ice totals will be just below warning criteria: .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...AS OF 345 AM THURSDAY...A POTENT SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE GULF COAST STATES TODAY WILL CLOSEOFF THIS EVENING AND THEN LIFT NORTHEAST...WITH A DEVELOPING SURFACELOW OVER THE GOMEX TO ALSO LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COASTON FRIDAY. STRONG DCVA AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...COUPLED WITH AN40-50 EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY LLJ AND WARM ADVECTION WILL BRINGWIDESPREAD PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA AFTER BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE NAMAND SREF SHOW POTENTIAL FOR STRONG BANDING BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z AS ANAREA OF INTENSE MID-LEVEL FGEN SETS UP ON THE NORTH-NORTHWESTERNSIDE OF TEH MID-LEVEL LOW...WHICH TRACKS ALONG THE COAST OR JUSTINLAND. THE NAM GIVES THE MOST QPF WITH AS MUCH AS 1.5 TO 2 INCHESACROSS THE PIEDMONT...HEAVIEST TONIGHT. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARENTQUITE AS EXTREME BUT STILL GIVE OVER AN INCH.THE BIG QUESTION MARK IN THE FORECAST IS HOW STRONG AND HOW FAR WESTA WARM NOSE DEVELOPS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED EASTERLY LLJ. THE NAMMAINTAINS AN EASTERLY FETCH LONGER THAN THE ECMWF AND GFS...ANDACCORDINGLY HAS THE WARMEST TEMPS (>4C) IN THE 925-850MB LAYER.THIS MAY BE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE...BUT THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEENTHE ECMWF AND GFS...WHICH ARE PREFERRED THERMALLY...THAT A 1-3C WARMLAYER WILL DEVELOP WAS FAR WEST AS THE TRIAD AREA. AT THESURFACE...THE AFOREMENTIONED PARENT HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTTHIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE SWINGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THUS...THEMAIN SOURCE OF COLD/DRY AIR SHOULD BE LOST OVERNIGHT AND THE SURFACELOW WILL BE MORE INFLUENTIAL IN MAINTAINING THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.ON THE BROAD SCALE....PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUPPORT AT LEAST FREEZINGRAIN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT THROUGH 12-15Z FRIDAY...WITH AQUICKER CHANGEOVER TO RAIN CLOSER TO THE US-1 CORRIDOR AND ALL RAINOVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. WETBULB EFFECTS AND PRECIP RATES WILLLIKELY LEAD TO MIXING IN OF SLEET OR EVEN SNOW AT THE ONSET...ASWELL AS WITHIN ANY BAND THAT SETS UP OVER THE NORTHERN AND/ORNORTHWEST PIEDMONT. THIS WOULD BE MUCH MORE LIKELY WITH THE COLDERSCENARIO SHOWN IN THE GFS WHERE A SMALLER WARM NOSE COULD BEOVERCOME. THE MOST DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST IS TRYING TODETERMINE POSSIBLE ICE AMOUNTS. THE TOP-DOWN APPROACH WITH ABOUTHALF OF QPF GOING TO ACCRUAL YIELDS AROUND TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OFICE. HEAVIER RAIN WOULD CUT DOWN ON AMOUNTS DUE TO RUN OFF. THEREIS ALSO SOME CONCERN ABOUT CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND HOW THAT MAY HOLDTEMPS UP AND LIMIT THE AREAL EXTENT OF FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL.FROM ALL OF THIS...WE ARE FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN SOME ICE ACCRUAL OVERTHE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT AREAS. WE ARE LESS CERTAIN ABOUTAREAS ALONG US-1...WHICH MAY SEE A LIGHT GLAZE BEFORE CHANGING OVERTO ALL RAIN. WILL ISSUE AN ADVISORY FORDAVIDSON...FORSYTH..GUILFORD...ALAMANCE...ORANGE AND PERSON COUNTIESSTARTING AT 6PM AND GOING THROUGH NOON ON FRIDAY.PARTIAL THICKNESSES RISE ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS BY MID-MORNINGFRIDAY...AND ANY SHALLOW SUB-FREEZING LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULDBE GONE WITH THE LOSS OF THE PARENT HIGH. DYNAMIC COOLING WITH THEPASSING UP TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR A SNOW/RAIN MIX AS THE DEFORMATIONBAND MOVES WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY (MAINLY OVER THE WEST)...BUT WITHSURFACE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING...THERE SHOULDNT BE ANY ADDITIONALIMPACT. MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY SLOWER MOVING PRECIP OUT OF THEAREA....SO WILL END POPS IN THE 00Z-06Z TIME FRAME. WILL ALSO KEEPSTEMPS LOWER THAN GUIDANCE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THEUPPER 30S/LOWER 40S. SOME POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE FRIDAY NIGHT ASLOWS DIP BACK DOWN TO AROUND FREEZING IN THE WEST. LOWS 32-36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pack83 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Surely this isn't accurate for kclt http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=NC&stn=KCLT&model=gfs&time=current&field=prec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Looking at the 6z GFS in BUFKIT for CLT, lots of ZR tonight and tomorrow morning. Sub-freezing later goes up to about 4k feet, then the warm nose. However, the warm nose cools around 5am, and you could argue that the 5am sounding is a heavy snow sounding. Then the warm nose strengthens again toward mid-morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 As has been stated this thing has HUGE bust potential either way. My honest non weenie opinion is the bust potential at the moment is for this to turn into a way much bigger deal than what is being thrown out through most media outlets, NWS. Its tough and they can always ramp up the verbage if needed assuming trends continue on the uptick today through 12z model runs and seeing what's actually unfolding actual weather wise ( DP"S, CAD strength e.t.c) throughout the day. Their is no doubt a ton of moisture is coming. These razor thin BL, 2m temp issues will dictate how severe this can become. That's the big question mark right now. Edit: By severe I'm talking Ice accrual more so than snow accums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 How am I only under a WWA? Seems to me models have been showing nothing but WSW criteria like solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSU2005 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Looking at the 6z GFS in BUFKIT for CLT, lots of ZR tonight and tomorrow morning. Sub-freezing later goes up to about 4k feet, then the warm nose. However, the warm nose cools around 5am, and you could argue that the 5am sounding is a heavy snow sounding. Then the warm nose strengthens again toward mid-morning. Thanks Matt...how does it look for RDU? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Surely this isn't accurate for kclt http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=NC&stn=KCLT&model=gfs&time=current&field=prec Probably not. Here is the Bufkit extraction for the same run and it is all liquid. I imagine the real outcome will be somewhere in between: http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=gfsm&site=kclt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 39.3° with the DP down to 29°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Thanks Matt...how does it look for RDU? Verbatim on 6z GFS, after initial sleet due to evaporation, a couple tenths of ZR with temps just below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 As has been stated this thing has HUGE bust potential either way. My honest non weenie opinion is the bust potential at the moment is for this to turn into a way much bigger deal than what is being thrown out through most media outlets, NWS. Its tough and they can always ramp up the verbage if needed assuming trends continue on the uptick today through 12z model runs and seeing what's actually unfolding actual weather wise ( DP"S, CAD strength e.t.c) throughout the day. Their is no doubt a ton of moisture is coming. These razor thin BL, 2m temp issues will dictate how severe this can become. That's the big question mark right now.Agree! It's amazing to me the " non mention " on any local media or even TWC local forecast, although they atleast say snow and zr mixing in, but have no accums. Could see that for me, but even with the 6z bufkit for CLT was crazy and no advisory or anything? Are they under GSP ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSU2005 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Verbatim on 6z GFS, after initial sleet due to evaporation, a couple tenths of ZR with temps just below freezing. Thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Looking at the 6z GFS in BUFKIT for CLT, lots of ZR tonight and tomorrow morning. Sub-freezing later goes up to about 4k feet, then the warm nose. However, the warm nose cools around 5am, and you could argue that the 5am sounding is a heavy snow sounding. Then the warm nose strengthens again toward mid-morning. Thanks Matt, looks like for the ZR we would probably be at like 30-32 which could work in our favor. Seems anytime it's under 30 that's when it gets scary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gritsnc Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Our local Brian Slocum did use the word "crippling" a few minutes ago when talking about how things could go either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 One good thing for local AFD's is that this is coming at night so impact for those on the roads should be minimal. This means if by 5pm this looks like it will get worse they can have a WSW in effect to make it on all news stations and get the warning out. Vs. as morning or afternoon threat where it could turn into ATL or RDU all over again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Looking at the 6z GFS in BUFKIT for CLT, lots of ZR tonight and tomorrow morning. Sub-freezing later goes up to about 4k feet, then the warm nose. However, the warm nose cools around 5am, and you could argue that the 5am sounding is a heavy snow sounding. Then the warm nose strengthens again toward mid-morning. Matt, what's interesting to me is you could argue areas to the west of the city(EHO, AKH, IPJ, HKY) hold onto almost a heavy snow sounding from 0z to 12z on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Gsp snow forecast http://www.weather.gov/images/gsp/brief/STSStormTotalSnow.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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