superjames1992 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 The shotty UKMET maps I see imply significant front-size snows for GSO and the I-40/I-85 corridors at the start. Then we change over to something other than snow between hr 30-36 (not sure on 2m temperatures). The 850 mb 0C isotherm hangs out around the NC/VA border for much of the rest of the event, though not much precip makes it past the border, either. You can view them here: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?carte=1021&ech=6&nh=1&archive=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA1049 PM EST WED MAR 5 2014...MODELS TRENDING COLDER WITH MORE SNOW POTENTIAL FOR HIGHELEVATIONS OF NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS....UPDATE...WILL CUT TO THE CHASE WITH THIS ONE. MODELS TRENDS HAVE BEENCOLDER WITH THE SYSTEM COMING IN TOMORROW WITH GFS SHOWING BANDEDPRECIP AND SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE MOUNTAINS.THAT SAID...GFS IS MUCH COLDER THAN OTHER MODELS AND SEEMS TOOCOLD BASED ON ORIENTATION OF 850MB FLOW. STILL...FACT REMAINS THAT18Z MODELS AS WELL AS 00Z MODELS COMING IN ARE TRENDING SLIGHTLYTOWARD THE GFS WHICH IS CAUSE FOR CONCERN. EVEN FOR ATL...THE METMOS FOR 00Z HAS COME IN WITH 37/28 AND 35/31 FOR TOMORROW BUT DOESKEEP IT ALL RAIN. MORE CONCERN FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THEMOUNTAINS WHERE PROFILES ARE ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE FREEZINGABOVE THE SURFACE. WITH THE BANDED PRECIPITATION WHICH IS LIKELYHOWEVER...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO SEND PROFILES TO ISOTHERMALALONG THE 0C LINE AND CREATE A BRIEF BURST OF MODERATE SNOW.FOR THESE REASONS...FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT ANDCOULD JUST AS EASILY STILL SEE A MAINLY RAIN EVENT AS WE DO SIGNIFICANTACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. THIS FORECASTER HOWEVER HAS SEEN TOO MANYCOLD COLD UPPER LOWS TRACK ACROSS THIS AREA AND TREND TOWARD AMORE WINTRY SCENARIO THAN NOT AND FEEL INCLUSION OF AT LEASTMODEST ACCUMULATIONS IS WARRANTED AT THIS POINT FOR THE HIGHERELEVATIONS. STILL ONLY ADVERTISING AROUND AN INCH BUT WORDINGPRODUCTS THAT BANDED PRECIPITATION COULD PRODUCE HIGHER AMOUNTSLOCALLY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Are you referring to a specific area or just in general? Pretty much all of north ga and the upstate (especially north ga). There is slightly more warm air in the mid levels over sc but that might not actually come to pass. It depends on how much cold air can actually be generated in the mid levels and substained by the upper low. But for example, from athens to i-85. It goes from clearly all rain, to what looks like sleet maybe, to a mix of sleet/snow to all snow then back to all rain...all in the span of 6 to 8 hours. This tells me the models are having a tough time but it also tells me that If any locations can get under a persistent heavy band of precip, they'll probably be in business. Some areas will be totally screwed i'm afraid while others could get a really quick dumping. The possibilities are pretty wild. And of course this doesn't even address nc, which I haven't looked at much but they should be much colder at the surface and this is going to be a big winter storm there overall. Are yall colder than guidance right now? its been fair skies down here, and further SW of us as well, and temps have cooled to 41 now. Nope. the cad is not really in play yet so until the colder/drier air makes it down I doubt it means much anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Sounds good, yeah, I think it's just because we don't have any clouds right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Pretty much all of north ga and the upstate (especially north ga). There is slightly more warm air in the mid levels over sc but that might not actually come to pass. It depends on how much cold air can actually be generated in the mid levels and substained by the upper low. But for example, from athens to i-85. It goes from clearly all rain, to what looks like sleet maybe, to a mix of sleet/snow to all snow then back to all rain...all in the span of 6 to 8 hours. This tells me the models are having a tough time but it also tells me that If any locations can get under a persistent heavy band of precip, they'll probably be in business. Some areas will be totally screwed i'm afraid while others could get a really quick dumping. The possibilities are pretty wild. And of course this doesn't even address nc, which I haven't looked at much but they should be much colder at the surface and this is going to be a big winter storm there overall. Nope. the cad is not really in play yet so until the colder/drier air makes it down I doubt it means much anyway Yeah, temps dropping pretty good , but dp is rising. Waiting on the wedge to really take hold. I hope it's cloudy tomorrow , or our slim wintry chances could easily go to none! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Clear skies here. I honestly didn't expect that. 40/40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 32.5 on the neighborhood station. Temp has dropped very quickly tonight. Already below our predicted low. Dewpoint however is 32. Hope to see that in the 20's in the morning for us to have a shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Does anyone have news on the Ukie? ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 I posted about the UKMET earlier. It is drier, but colder. N/W NC would probably be talking about predominantly snow for at least the first half of the storm, but there's not nearly as much precipitation as the NAM/RGEM. Very little precipitation gets north of the NC/VA border. 2m temperatures aren't out yet, so I'm not sure how much freezing rain there is. The Meteocentre maps are out now: http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?lang=fr&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet It's the coldest UKMET run I've seen, though. The Euro is set to CRUSH us in a few minutes, BTW. (Well, "crush" us or crush dreams?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Looking gorgeous tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 The wedging looks a little more stout early on with the Euro, FWIW. I'm splitting hairs, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Euro appears to be a tad colder, but precip looks to be about the same as 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 !#!@$$$%@#%@#%#% this has to be entertainment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Yep, it's a tad colder than last run. QPF might be higher for WNC. GSO hangs out at 0-1C 850s the entire run and gets down to 29 at the surface for awhile. 850s are a little colder across the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 The euro is colder aloft than the 12z run with the core of the coldest air at 850mb a little more widespread over ga but it's sort of splitting hairs at this point and frankly futile. The only real thing one could deduce is the tendency for slightly colder solutions aloft than previous runs. However, unlike the gfs/nam runs it's core of cooling is centered further east and south than the gfs and nam over ga. So none of them really agree where it happens lol. It would be nice if there was a lot of front end cooling that takes place with the intitial surge of heavy precip so that it's more widespread overall than the models are giving it credit for..which is something that will need to be watched. It's a big hit for western nc and the northern foothills. It implies either all frozen or freezing precipitation (1 to 1.5 inches worth) with temps never making it above freezing in the northern mountains/foothills.I tend to think this area and down the eastern side of the nc mountains won't get above freezing either. I'd love to be up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Yep, it's a tad colder than last run. QPF might be higher for WNC. GSO hangs out at 0-1C 850s the entire run and gets down to 29 at the surface for awhile. The euro is colder aloft than the 12z run with the core of the coldest air at 850mb a little more widespread over ga but it's sort of splitting hairs at this point and frankly futile. The only real thing one could deduce is the tendency for slightly colder solutions aloft than previous runs. However, unlike the gfs/nam runs it's core of cooling is centered further east and south than the gfs and nam over ga. So none of them really agree where it happens lol. It would be nice if there was a lot of front end cooling that takes place with the intitial surge of heavy precip so that it's more widespread overall than the models are giving it credit for..which is something that will need to be watched. It's a big hit for western nc and the northern foothills. It implies either all frozen or freezing precipitation (1 to 1.5 inches worth) with temps never making it above freezing in the northern mountains/foothills.I tend to think this area and down the eastern side of the nc mountains won't get above freezing either. I'd love to be up there. Pretty crazy clown map... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Heh, the clown shows 13.8" here at hr 42. Lexington, NC with 14.8". Long live the Euro clown! Best run yet, IMO, though it's basically a hold from last run (a little colder/wetter). NOTE: These totals are bogus, but it is a huge winter storm in these areas with a wintry mix of P-types... The Euro still has that deformation death band across central NC at hr 42-48. Verbatim, it's rain with temperatures in the mid-30s at the surface, 1000-500 mb thicknesses of 543-546 dm, and 850s of 1C. With 850s of 1C, I sincerely hope we're talking about IP rather than ZR for that nearly 1-1.5" of QPF that falls as wintry precip. Without soundings, I really don't know, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Pretty crazy clown map... That map does look awesome, but be cautious, that map looked like the map for my area for the 2/12 storm,a day out, and I got about an 1/4 of that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 I guess I would expect the RAH/GSP/RNK WFOs to issue WSWs with their overnight updates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 I guess I would expect the RAH/GSP/RNK WFOs to issue WSWs with their overnight updates. When do they usually issue their updates at night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 When do they usually issue their updates at night? It seems to usually be around 3-3:30 AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 hey James.....remember that joke call map you posted 2-3 days ago? Take a gander at that Euro clown..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 It seems to usually be around 3-3:30 AM. ah, alright. thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 If anyone cares, RAH did already issue the aviation weather forecast at 12:35 AM, which might give you some insight into their recent thoughts... &&.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...AS OF 1235 AM THURSDAY... ... AREAS OF PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NC FROM THE SOUTHTHIS AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT BYTHIS EVENING. THE PRECIP MAY START IN KFAY AS A RAIN/SLEET MIXTUREBEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN. THE SAME WILL OCCUR AT KRWI BUTABOUT 3-4 HOURS LATER. PRECIP IN THE KRDU VICINITY WILL LIKELY STARTOUT AS RAIN/SLEET THEN TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN FOR SEVERALHOURS TONIGHT... THEN TRANSITION TO RAIN/FREEZING RAIN AFTERDAYBREAK FRIDAY. THE LONGEST PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIP WILL LIKELYOCCUR IN THE TRIAD WHERE A OF SLEET/SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN ISEXPECTED. THIS WINTRY MIX SHOULD COMMENCE IN THE TRIAD LATE TONIGHTAND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME MEASURABLE SNOW/SLEET ANDICING IS A GOOD PROBABILITY IN THIS REGION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Are yall colder than guidance right now? its been fair skies down here, and further SW of us as well, and temps have cooled to 41 now. its 33 here. low was 35. barely any clouds in the sky. compared to a forecast of cloudy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 RAH has been all over this from the start. I had a mix in my forecast long before there was even much model support for it. Kudos to them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 its 33 here. low was 35. barely any clouds in the sky. compared to a forecast of cloudy. It was 29º here at 11pm. It's 33º now. In any case, tonights temps mean nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 It was 29º here at 11pm. It's 33º now. In any case, tonights temps mean nothing. I would expect cloud cover to move in and possibly warm it a bit.. especially down this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 RAH has been all over this from the start. I had a mix in my forecast long before there was even much model support for it. Kudos to them. Agreed. They never took a mix of precipitation out of the forecast, even when all the modeling pointed towards nothing but rain (or dry weather). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 It was 29º here at 11pm. It's 33º now. In any case, tonights temps mean nothing. However, fwiw, GSO's/RDU's TD's were 17/18 as of 1 AM vs. 0Z NAM progs of 22/24 and 0Z GFS progs of 29/30! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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