Shawn Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 no real maps, it comes from my weather vendor, but it shows a line of snow/rain over central SC at the end there.. Hm, it wouldn't be much in my opinion. Crazy how hard a system like this is going to be to predict. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 @WxSouth: GFS...surface high still inland at Friday morning. Big time Winter storm central and west NC, upper SC, NE GA....even though model strugglesAlso:@WxSouth: Folks in upper SC and north GA that sort of got skipped a couple times this Winter, this storm's for you. Models will get even colder #gawx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Here's one for those western upstaters who live in the dreaded screw zone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
27596WXNUT Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 I wonder what part of central NC he means, just big time for the Triad or the RDU area, too. Robert posted this on Facebook. Guess it kind of addresses your question brick....... Terrible setup in Carolinas. High pressure remains inland most of storm. Strong damming Raleigh, Greensboro, Charlotte. #ice #snow. That was his post an hour ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Also: @WxSouth: Folks in upper SC and north GA that sort of got skipped a couple times this Winter, this storm's for you. Models will get even colder #gawx He's only missed once that I know of, it was a few years ago with an ULL and said upstate would change to heavy snow , but it never did. But when he talks like that, I get excited! # WEENIE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Man that 00z CMC looks great! shows snow or mix NW NC for like 18 hours? WOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Whats funny is that the models are REALLY struggling tonight around here, at least. The lack of cloud cover, IMO, has really thrown a monkey wrench in temps tonight...will it matter, prolly not, but interesting for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Also: @WxSouth: Folks in upper SC and north GA that sort of got skipped a couple times this Winter, this storm's for you. Models will get even colder #gawx Which would mean even bigger deal for everyone than the models are showing if he is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Based off the rough maps. The Ukmet trended much colder at 850mb for NC/SC compared to the 12z run(which was already one of the coldest models). Also looks faster with the upper level low. It looks more in line with the GFS, I would say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparkync Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 I wonder what part of central NC he means, just big time for the Triad or the RDU area, too. I don't know where u live, central to me is the middle of the state I live in yadkin co 30 miles from winston-Salem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SD1 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 If the GFS is right, as well as the RAP, Temperatures are inline for snow/sleet in the triad and triangle. Overnight into Friday may be rocking . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 The CMC just crushes WNC with heavy snow for a prolonged period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 One thing that happened with the GFS/RGEM and now UK is it's slow to advance to precip north of I-40, not until after 6z Friday, that SLP will not climb, the HP sliding out is a brick wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSU2005 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Fishel just commented that the freezing rain line could potentially end up further south and east than what they thought during the early evening forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 I don't know where u live, central to me is the middle of the state I live in yadkin co 30 miles from winston-Salem A lot of folks include the Triad in central NC, too. Big inference in the Traid and Traingle, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 I wonder what part of central NC he means, just big time for the Triad or the RDU area, too. Here is his map. Now go to bed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Fishel just commented that the freezing rain line could potentially end up further south and east than what they thought during the early evening forecast. That's not really saying much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Here is his map. Now go to bed! Well, he has Durham in it. That is 20 minutes away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 GFS Sounding for 1am Friday when it’s really coming down for Pickens,SC. The Nam isn’t even close to snow.... which one do I believe??? NAM runs the 850mb low from Columbia to the Outer Banks, whereas the GFS tracks it right along the Carolina coast. Euro is similar to the GFS...so that's the big difference with the mid level warming. As a matter of fact, just looking at the soundings, I could see the majority of precip along and north of 74 from Rutherfordton to maybe Charlotte being mostly snow or sleet through 36. GFS is just textbook for snow in central / western NC and SC upstate. 500mb / 700mb lows tracking through the coastal plain / inland of the coast...850mb low tracking from south GA right up the Carolina coast. Sfc low just off the coast. Biggest issue is the retreating high caused by progressive northern stream. Euro Ensemble mean storm total precip is 1.3 for Charlotte, 0.8 for Asheville, 0.6 for Boone, 1.0 for Greensboro, 1.2 for Raleigh, 1.2 for Greenville, SC. Euro Op precip values are higher for all sites. On temperatures, what we normally see is that the surface temperatures tend to be on the colder end of the guidance with cold air damming like this...while the warming aloft via warm air advection / warm nose tends to be on the warmer end of the guidance, but that's highly dependent on the 850mb low track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 The CMC just crushes WNC with heavy snow for a prolonged periodCould someone post qpf map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 00z GFS Is worlds apart from NAM on qpf it only spits out .35 here and mostly plain rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparkync Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 A lot of folks include the Triad in central NC, too. Big inference in the Traid and Traingle, though. yes, but in forecasting weather its broken down in sections Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 That's not really saying much. The triangle is right on the line, even with everything going on I still think it's mostly a non-event for us, even if we get sleet/frzn from say midnight to 6am, by 7am it's pouring rain it will all be gone. I think west of 85 is the best bet to get a good ice storm. But it's the last event of the year, might as well watch it. I hope someone get's a good winter event out of this, hate to waste a great coastal, closed ULL... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AN INCREASING POSSIBILITY FOR NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS A COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PROGRESS ACROSS GEORGIA TOMORROW AFTERNOON SPREADING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THE PRECIPITATION FALLS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO COOL AND RESULT IN LIGHT SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN AT TIMES FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. FURTHER COOLING SUGGESTED BY SOME COMPUTER MODELS WOULD ALLOW FOR MORE PREDOMINANT SNOW BY THURSDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL AS THE VERY NATURE OF THESE TYPE OF UPPER LEVEL STORMS CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO EXACTLY HOW MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS WILL SEE. OUR BEST PROJECTIONS RIGHT NOW INDICATE THAT WARM TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT THE ACCUMULATIONS INITIALLY AND THE MIXED NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL ALLOW FOR AROUND AN INCH ACCUMULATION. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE BANDED TYPE OF PRECIPITATION SEEN WITH UPPER LOWS WILL ALLOW FOR A WIDE RANGE OF POTENTIAL SNOWFALL TOTALS OVER A SHORT DISTANCE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED AREAS TO RECEIVE HIGHER AMOUNTS THAN THE AVERAGE ONE INCH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 gfs certainly is interesting. Taken the gfs soundings verbatim though, hour by hour, shows it going from all rain to all snow, to a mix of everything, or in reverse. It really and literally would change by the hour. Probably a case where any heavier precipitation causes snow and when it lightens up it's rain, sleet, or a mix. Pretty wild setup as conditions and accumulations would vary drastically from place to place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Well... @AccuFrank 13m I think mountains see #snow instead of ice, maybe foothills, too. Either way, big event, heavy wet snow causes trouble, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 gfs certainly is interesting. Taken the gfs soundings verbatim though, hour by hour, shows it going from all rain to all snow, to a mix of everything, or in reverse. It really and literally would change by the hour. Probably a case where any heavier precipitation causes snow and when it lightens up it's rain, sleet, or a mix. Pretty wild setup as conditions and accumulations would vary drastically from place to place. Are you referring to a specific area or just in general? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 gfs certainly is interesting. Taken the gfs soundings verbatim though, hour by hour, shows it going from all rain to all snow, to a mix of everything, or in reverse. It really and literally would change by the hour. Probably a case where any heavier precipitation causes snow and when it lightens up it's rain, sleet, or a mix. Pretty wild setup as conditions and accumulations would vary drastically from place to place. Are yall colder than guidance right now? its been fair skies down here, and further SW of us as well, and temps have cooled to 41 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Are yall colder than guidance right now? its been fair skies down here, and further SW of us as well, and temps have cooled to 41 now. 0Z NAM had me at 41 at 11 PM tonight (3Z), I'm currently sitting at 34. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billypg Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 This was the latest update from GSP Discussion .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...AS OF 945 PM EST WED...THE 18Z AND INCOMING 00Z MODEL TRENDS ARE ABIT TROUBLING IN THAT THE MODEL PROFILES HAVE TRENDED A BITCOLDER...WITH MORE OF A LINGERING ISOTHERMAL NEAR ZERO SETUPINDICATED OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE UPCOMING PRECIPITATIONEVENT. IN ADDITION...QPF REACHING INTO THE COLDER AIR APPEARS A BITMORE ROBUST THAN EARLIER. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLYCOLDER WITH THE LATEST UPDATE...BUT WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES TO ACCUMSAT THIS POINT PENDING A MORE COMPLETE REVIEW OF THE INCOMING 00ZMODEL DATA AND THE LATEST ENSEMBLES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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