Brick Tamland Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Well each model suite today has trended colder so each run has spread the threat 30-50 miles south and east of earlier runs. So yes winter weather is knocking on the door at RDU. Still marginal with temps between 30-33. Be ready for anything. Sounds like we could get rain, ice, or snow. Just depends on how cold it trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 No, but these maps are fairly conservative, IMO... How accurate are the CMC snow maps? That would be quite a hit for the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 NAM is crippling for GSO and INT... GSO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 How accurate are the CMC snow maps? That would be quite a hit for the mountains. I always thought the RGEM was very good inside 36 hours and with temps, at least with 2m's it has run a little warm for MBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Temps look good on the GFS but man precip is just weak out to 21. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 How accurate are the CMC snow maps? That would be quite a hit for the mountains. This is the short range rgem which is supposed to decipher between snow, sleet and freezing rain instead of counting all of it towards snow totals like all of the other clown maps for the other models. So, in that sense, they should be more accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gritsnc Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 The good thing is that even if this does become a major storm, it will be short lived...meaning that the temps will get above freezing by late Friday afternoon. Imagine if this was happening at a time when we were going to have several days in a row below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Step 1: GFS temp profile Step 2: NAM/GGEM QPF Step 3: Profit Glad to see you found a step 2 .... This is pulling a lot of folks back in now Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 NAM is crippling for GSO and INT... GSO Yeah. Once I see temps in the twenties starting to show up on the models, I think we are in trouble! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 No, but these maps are fairly conservative, IMO... Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SD1 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 I expect to see WSW by tomorrow morning if models hold or trend colder. Synoptically these systems usually produce big time in late winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Glad to see you found a step 2 .... This is pulling a lot of folks back in now Sent from my iPhone Burger tried to convince me that step 2 was to cut a hole in the box. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 RPM is starting to show some -2c temps at 850 over N EC and Central SC on the new run. and some snow in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Robert said the wintry weather is making it to SC! Everyone else is just hyper- focused on the triad, and Greensboro. I'm very skeptical about ice or snow down here, but we will see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Should be snowing in Charlotte by 7PM tomorrow, IF, the GFS is correct on the temp profile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 I'm using the coordinates for my folks house in the Tryonota area of Gaston County and they are all snow through hour 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 I can't see the future but here is my take for upstate. This isn't a good setup for us - poor timing, and CAD not deep enough. Much of NC looks to do well. For upstate I can see wintry stuff making it down to usual Gaffney and rock hill, maybe to union and NE Spartanburg. Western upstate, well we know how that will turn out, cold cold rain. I have seen too many CADs underperform in western sections and just be rain. This setup screams that to me. Enjoy and congrats to everyone who has it coming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 This run is a major league razor thin line between a major event along 85 and nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 So is the GFS on crack with the QPF (or lack thereof) it's spitting out? Pretty dry... I'd think so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 RPM is starting to show some -2c temps at 850 over N EC and Central SC on the new run. and some snow in there. Bingo. But nothing but rain in western sections. Just like clockwork. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 GFS Sounding for 1am Friday when it’s really coming down for Pickens,SC. The Nam isn’t even close to snow.... which one do I believe??? Date: 30 hour AVN valid 6Z FRI 7 MAR 14Station: KLQKLatitude: 34.81Longitude: -82.70-------------------------------------------------------------------------------LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 0 1000 159 SFC 968 422 -0.3 -0.9 96 0.6 -0.6 20 11 275.4 276.0 274.3 285.5 3.70 2 950 570 -1.3 -1.9 96 0.5 -1.6 31 27 275.8 276.4 274.2 285.4 3.50 3 900 1000 -1.1 -1.8 95 0.7 -1.4 55 31 280.4 281.0 277.0 290.7 3.72 4 850 1458 0.3 -0.2 96 0.5 0.1 74 30 286.4 287.2 280.9 299.0 4.43 5 800 1944 -0.0 -0.4 98 0.3 -0.2 88 27 291.1 291.9 283.2 304.6 4.66 6 750 2460 -1.5 -1.7 99 0.2 -1.6 105 25 294.9 295.7 284.7 308.2 4.51 7 700 3009 -3.5 -3.5 100 0.1 -3.5 125 22 298.6 299.4 285.8 311.2 4.20 8 650 3592 -6.3 -6.4 99 0.1 -6.4 149 14 301.9 302.5 286.4 312.9 3.63 9 600 4215 -9.7 -9.9 99 0.1 -9.8 165 12 304.9 305.4 286.8 314.2 3.01 10 550 4881 -14.1 -14.7 96 0.5 -14.3 173 17 307.3 307.7 286.9 314.4 2.23 11 500 5597 -18.8 -21.9 76 3.1 -19.6 183 19 310.1 310.4 286.9 314.5 1.32 12 450 6373 -24.9 -29.7 64 4.8 -25.7 177 17 311.9 312.1 286.9 314.4 0.72 13 400 7216 -32.3 -36.4 67 4.1 -32.7 158 14 313.0 313.1 286.9 314.5 0.42 14 350 8142 -40.3 -43.8 69 3.5 -40.5 162 16 314.4 314.4 287.2 315.2 0.22 15 300 9177 -47.1 -50.7 66 3.6 -47.2 186 24 319.0 319.0 288.6 319.5 0.12 16 250 10374 -49.8 -60.0 29 10.2 -50.0 214 42 332.1 332.1 292.3 332.3 0.05 17 200 11829 -49.5 -62.1 21 12.6 -49.9 224 54 354.4 354.4 297.6 354.6 0.04 18 150 13697 -53.2 -69.1 13 16.0 -53.5 235 48 378.5 378.5 302.0 378.6 0.02 19 100 16263 -60.5 -81.2 5 20.7 -60.8 248 33 410.8 410.8 306.6 410.8 0.01TRP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 As a matter of fact, just looking at the soundings, I could see the majority of precip along and north of 74 from Rutherfordton to maybe Charlotte being mostly snow or sleet through 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Burger tried to convince me that step 2 was to cut a hole in the box. Well there is still time to convince you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 @WxSouth: GFS...surface high still inland at Friday morning. Big time Winter storm central and west NC, upper SC, NE GA....even though model struggles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 @WxSouth: GFS...surface high still inland at Friday morning. Big time Winter storm central and west NC, upper SC, NE GA....even though model struggles I wonder what part of central NC he means, just big time for the Triad or the RDU area, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 As a matter of fact, just looking at the soundings, I could see the majority of precip along and north of 74 from Rutherfordton to maybe Charlotte being mostly snow or sleet through 36. If so, wow at the power of this system . Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Bingo. But nothing but rain in western sections. Just like clockwork.I would be surprised if we see snow or sleet here, but with some snow showing up in NGA and lots of ice and snow in NC, we may sneak a flurry mixed in with are 33 and rain?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeepSouthSC Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 RPM is starting to show some -2c temps at 850 over N EC and Central SC on the new run. and some snow in there. Any maps/links, delta? Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSU2005 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 See your lurking Brandon...what say you?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Any maps/links, delta? Thanks in advance. no real maps, it comes from my weather vendor, but it shows a line of snow/rain over central SC at the end there.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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