MillerA Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 https://m.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=632011463537980 From Brad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 2.5-3" QPF showing up on 12km NAM, overdone for sure, but chop it in half and it's still a lot of precip, a lot of rain too... When the nam gets amped up like this, obviously the correct outcome will be less. I'm wondering if a less intense system would be further south, which could allow for more cold air to hang in? Or would a less intense system mean it couldn't generate enough cold air to crash the 850? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 From robert Check out @WxSouth's Tweet: https://twitter.com/WxSouth/status/441403267537723392 From alan Check out @RaleighWx's Tweet: https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/441403882489380866 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtomlinwx Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 WxSouth Modelologists shocked to see models point to ice and snow in Carolinas. Synopticians lie down to sweet dreams. Grab your generator Carolinas Can you imagine the chaos that is going to ensue across the Carolinas tomorrow if this data trend continues? People in a mad dash to get prepared Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 WxSouth NAM too warm on dewpoints already Thursday evening. Evaporational and dynamic cooling. Major snow in foothills, Mtns. #ice piedmont Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtomlinwx Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 WxSouth: "Terrible setup in Carolinas. High Pressure remains inland most of storm. Strong damming Raleigh, Greensboro, Charlotte. #ice #snow" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 WxSouth NAM too warm on dewpoints already Thursday evening. Evaporational and dynamic cooling. Major snow in foothills, Mtns. #ice piedmont [/quote Lot of folks have no clue of the potential this has. Splitting hairs between the all cold rain Emily on fox 8 spewed out this morning and lunch on fox 8 and high possibility of boatload of Qpf that can deliver tons of freezing rain and /or possibly HEAVY wet snow from 6 to 1 ratios. Either one would cause major tree damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
10below Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Get your generators ready and chop some more firewood, fellas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrandoG20 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 What about the GSP area ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 I haven't looked at soundings yet. I'm just looking at surface temperatures at the moment. The deformation band really crushes GSO-INT on the Hi-Res NAM (as well as the 12 km NAM, though the band sets up a little further west) and to the north east and south. 850s read out as 0C, surface temperatures are in the mid-30s. Precipitation is enormous. I don't have thicknesses. I honestly wonder if that could be crushing wet snow if the models aren't taking into account enough dynamic cooling with enhanced lift, as RAH suggested in their afternoon AFD. That would be epic. Maybe I'm just wishcasting, though. Oh. I don't know and doubt it. Seems like a repeat of run after run here imo and of last night. Maybe a brief mix to start to zr to cold rain. Precip moves in here about 10pm. Support of sleet. Between 10 and 1 am a period of freezing rain. Then between 1 and 4am temps between 900 and 850 range torch from 3-6c for the rest of the event then possibly getting abovefreezing at the surface by 4am It might be me... but this is not going to be a bad ice storm with temps that warm aloft. Those rain drops are going to absorb that heat(37-43 degree) and release it here at the surface which will cause the surface to warm quicker than what the soundings show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 This is the RGEM at 12z Friday, starts for the mountains at 0z, looks to be a lot of ice/snow for western NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 This is the RGEM at 12z Friday, starts for the mountains at 0z, looks to be a lot of ice/snow for western NC. Thanks pack! Does it look just a hair snowier compared to one you posted earlier today for the western half of NC? Hard to tell on my phone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 What about the GSP area ? for those of us in the upstate and ne ga, its still meh - looks like the lower dewpoints start around charlotte while this area is in the upper 20s and lower 30s. if we wake up tomorrow and our dewpoints have dropped off (more likely as you get into the upstate towards nc border i would guess) then might have a shot at some zr. depending on the temps when the precip starts (unless we have a miracle and the cad builds on in) would like to see them a good 10 degrees lower to start getting excited and with things so razor thin/marginal anyway, i would guess that even if we can touch freezing if the precip starts coming down it will warm things up and limit any ice (speaking mostly ne ga here). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 What about the GSP area ?Robert said the wintry weather is making it to SC! Everyone else is just hyper- focused on the triad, and Greensboro. I'm very skeptical about ice or snow down here, but we will see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Do you guys remember that March snowstorm back in 2010 I think it was that started down in New Orleans then tracked up through Columbus, GA, Athens, GA and into the Carolinas? It wasn't all that cold, but the core of the low was so strong and the precipitation was so heavy that is just dumped a heavy wet snow all through this region. This storm has that feel to it, not as far south obviously. There seems to be a lot more cold air in place then models would suggest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Thanks pack! Does it look just a hair snowier compared to one you posted earlier today for the western half of NC? Hard to tell on my phone. Won't be sure for another 10 mins or so....but for GSO and points west, yes it does. The HP was stronger at 12z Friday (1034) versus (1032) with the 18z run. But it's hard to gauge as I do think the RGEM is a little warm with 2m temps, I didn't know the NAM was prone to being warm, I always thought it did fairly well with temps. One negative I have seen is the ULL doesn't goto 2 contour on the 0z run, but not 100% sure just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 10pm temp is 43 00z nam 4km said it should be 49 00z nam regular said it should be 49 02z rap said it should be 48 1z HRRR 3km said it should be 45 I think models are not doing great with cloud cover tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 RGEM definitely as cold as the 18z run, for RDU we are at 33F from roughly 0z to 12z and 850's are less than 1C for 6-8 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Won't be sure for another 10 mins or so....but for GSO and points west, yes it does. The HP was stronger at 12z Friday (1034) versus (1032) with the 18z run. But it's hard to gauge as I do think the RGEM is a little warm with 2m temps, I didn't know the NAM was prone to being warm, I always thought it did fairly well with temps. One negative I have seen is the ULL doesn't goto 2 contour on the 0z run, but not 100% sure just yet. Yes I believe the nam was the best with temps on some of our earlier events. The trend today is pretty amazing, but you would think that there isn't room for too many more changes. The storm starts soon. If it's a major ice storm, folks will be scrambling tomorrow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Now I am really confused. That graphic from RAH sows it won't be a big deal for RDU area. But then I see WxSouth mentioning a big storm for central NC and also mentioning a Raleigh. Is this just a big deal for Greensboro and wets or is RDU in the game, too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 RGEM has a 1037 high in NY during the middle of the storm. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 WxSouth NAM too warm on dewpoints already Thursday evening. Evaporational and dynamic cooling. Major snow in foothills, Mtns. #ice piedmont why hasn't gsp at least put out a special weather statement or wsw, surely gsp is seeing what all the guys on here are seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Robert said the wintry weather is making it to SC! Everyone else is just hyper- focused on the triad, and Greensboro. I'm very skeptical about ice or snow down here, but we will see! i am skeptical too (esp since i am farther sw than you) but am obviously watching and waiting lol. looks like a lot of nc will be getting some winter wx, and if things play out just right and the cad and hp are as strong as some models have shown its not out of the question, esp for your area. we need everyone in nc to point their fans outside and towards the sw on full blast lol why hasn't gsp at least put out a special weather statement or wsw, surely gsp is seeing what all the guys on here are seeing. they are seeing what we have been talking about and are waiting for the 00z model runs it would appear: Near term /until 6 am Thursday morning/... as of 945 PM EST Wednesday...the 18z and incoming 00z model trends are a bit troubling in that the model profiles have trended a bit colder...with more of a lingering isothermal near zero setup indicated over the mountains during the upcoming precipitation event. In addition...quantitative precipitation forecast reaching into the colder air appears a bit more robust than earlier. The forecast has been adjusted slightly colder with the latest update...but with no major changes to accums at this point pending a more complete review of the incoming 00z model data and the latest ensembles. RGEM has a 1037 high in NY during the middle of the storm. Wow. thats what us poor souls on the far south edge like to hear haha. if we can get a hp building in during at least part of the storm we would stand a better chance of seeing at least something frozen before going to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 RGEM definitely as cold as the 18z run, for RDU we are at 33F from roughly 0z to 12z and 850's are less than 1C for 6-8 hours. Do you have soundings for the RDU,GSO area? The real story is below that level into the 850 900mb range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 I hope the RGEM is wrong, it literally rots the SLP off ILM for like 18 hours and its still there at hour 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Here comes the GFS. It's going to be interesting to see what it's temps are like. It seemed to be the first one (outside of the Euro) to really catch on today with colder temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Step 1: GFS temp profile Step 2: NAM/GGEM QPF Step 3: Profit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Now I am really confused. That graphic from RAH sows it won't be a big deal for RDU area. But then I see WxSouth mentioning a big storm for central NC and also mentioning a Raleigh. Is this just a big deal for Greensboro and wets or is RDU in the game, too? Well each model suite today has trended colder so each run has spread the threat 30-50 miles south and east of earlier runs. So yes winter weather is knocking on the door at RDU. Still marginal with temps between 30-33. Be ready for anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Do you have soundings for the RDU,GSO area? The real story is below that level into the 850 900mb range. No, but these maps are fairly conservative, IMO... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 RGEM has a deform band right over CLT with 850's crashing up to GSO on the west side of that ULL. I have hard time buying that it wouldn't be snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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